Twitter Observations: Conner’s role, Njoku’s upside and more
As more and more states start allowing sports teams to operate again, it’s becoming more likely that we’ll have an NFL season and have it on time. Whether that happens or not, dynasty-leaguers are in it for the long haul. Between the NFL Draft and rookie drafts starting up, there’s a lot of evaluation needed to understand your dynasty teams.
Below are a few developments that got Twitter talking and could affect valuations for players over the next few weeks and months.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
Ring of Conner
https://twitter.com/SteelBlitzburgh/status/1261042834351800326?s=20
For such a short career, James Conner’s dynasty value has been quite the roller coaster. From a third-round pick in 2017 – drafted to serve as the primary backup to fantasy stud Le’Veon Bell – Conner was thrust into the starting job in 2018 after Bell held out for a contract extension. Conner ran for just shy of 1,000 yards and added nearly 500 more through the air, finishing as a top-ten fantasy back. It was entirely reasonable to take Conner as your RB1 in dynasty startups after that season.
But after an injury-filled 2019 season, the roller coaster started careening down to his current ADP, right on the RB2/3 line. The injuries were significant enough that he missed six games but more concerning was Conner’s efficiency going down. Not only did he average nearly 40 less total yards per game, but his yards-per-carry average was knocked down a half-yard (from 4.5 to 4.0).
Dynasty Impact: Tomlin’s comments are a positive sign and seemingly an endorsement that Conner is still the man in Pittsburgh. This is despite the emergence of Benny Snell last year and the Steelers drafting Anthony McFarland in the fourth round this year. And in other good news, Conner hasn’t appeared to have any lingering injury issues this off-season and should be a full go if/when training camps kick-off. It’s his job to lose and he should be treated as a high-upside RB2 despite being under a lot of people’s radars.
Spin Rodgers
#Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to end our call: "There are some new factors that are out of my control. And so my sincere desire to start and finish with the same organization, just as it has with many other players over the years, may not be a reality at this point." pic.twitter.com/sZIcfOwwhk
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) May 15, 2020
It certainly wasn’t expected but it also wasn’t a surprise when the Packers did to Aaron Rodgers what they did to Brett Favre all those years ago by drafting Rodgers. Quarterback is the most important position in the sport and if you think you’ve found a star, you take him. But in taking Jordan Love in the first round, the Packers have officially put Rodgers on notice that his time in Green Bay may not last as long as he hoped.
After all, there are only five years of the insanely cheap rookie contract for first-round picks to truly take advantage of the financial savings, especially for a quarterback. You must assume the Packers would like to see the gains on this pick well before that, which makes Rodgers’ date of departure even sooner.
Dynasty Impact: What Rodgers said is what we all were thinking but at least we know that he thinks it too. If anything, this shows Rodgers doesn’t plan on hanging it up anytime soon. He’s 36 and the oldest top-ten quarterback in our DLF rankings (by five years, no less) but still finished as a fantasy QB1 this past season.
The drafting of Love automatically lowers the dynasty asking price for Rodgers since we know the Packers are planning to move on from him but he’s still Aaron Rodgers. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Rodgers is currently valued as a late second-round rookie pick. If your dynasty team is weak at quarterback, Rodgers would be a great target.
Expansion Pack
Packers TE Jace Sternberger excited for new opportunities in 2020https://t.co/qzABV5cLTi
— The Packers Wire (@ThePackersWire) May 15, 2020
After a largely absent rookie season due an ankle injury, Jace Sternberger certainly made the most of his few opportunities. He caught both of his targets in the Packers’ last game of the 2019 season including one for a touchdown against San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. It was all the Packers needed to see as they cut veteran Jimmy Graham in the off-season, leaving Sternberger atop of the depth chart.
It shouldn’t be a surprise considering Sternberger was the 75th overall pick in the 2019 Draft, yet his ADP suggests he’s still being overlooked. It’s likely because that draft was loaded at tight end where Sternberger, despite being taken in the third round, was just the sixth taken. Comparatively speaking, just one tight end was taken in the first 90 picks in 2020.
Dynasty Impact: In 2020, the rookie class of tight ends is abysmal. The first wasn’t selected until the 41st pick where Cole Kmet, ironically, was drafted by Graham’s new team, the Bears. As mentioned above, there were literally no other tight ends taken in the next 50 picks. This is the year to identify young, under-the-radar non-rookie options at tight end before it’s too late.
Enter Sternberger, who is currently a dynasty TE2/3 in our tight end rankings despite entering just his second year with the Packers who need to replace Graham’s 60 targets. Green Bay did draft another tight end in the third round of this year’s draft – Josiah Deguara at 94th overall – but he’s less than a year younger than Sternberger and smaller by two inches and ten pounds. Additionally, Deguara’s only college experience is in the American Athletic Conference which is a far cry from Sternberger’s alma mater, Texas A&M, and the SEC. Give me the bigger, more experienced, and more challenged option.
Upside Brown?
Ok, so it has come to my attention that David Njoku is currently TE27 per @DLFootball startup ADP.
This is blasphemy.
(thread) pic.twitter.com/K1R1ZGj6N3
— Bulletproof Beancounter (@DFBeanCounter) May 18, 2020
Let’s start with the positives when it comes to David Njoku. He has first-round draft capital behind him and is still super young – he’s not quite 24 – despite entering his fourth year in the league. Beyond that, there just isn’t a lot to be excited about.
After a gradual progression from his rookie season to his second, knee and wrist injuries kept him out of most his third. Of course, he was also a healthy scratch towards the end of the 2019 season after letting one pass go through his hands only to be picked off. The Browns took the benching a step further this off-season when they signed the top tight end on the market, Austin Hooper, to a contract that made Hooper the highest-paid tight in the league (in terms of guaranteed money).
Dynasty Impact: While our dynasty rankers don’t have Njoku quite as low as the ADP data being gathered, the point stands that Njoku is not being valued very high in dynasty circles. But unlike the tweet above, I believe it’s justified. Imagine how much the Browns thought of Njoku to make Austin Hooper the highest-paid tight end in the league despite already having ball catchers in the form of Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and Kareem Hunt.
Furthermore, even if Njoku isn’t out of the dog pound/house, he’s not going to see significant targets. New Browns coach Kevin Stefanski did a pretty good job of not playing favorites in Minnesota last year where tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith saw 48 and 47 targets, respectively. Njoku is correctly priced as a low-end TE2 and even that may be generous.
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