Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: JK Dobbins, RB BAL
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.
Name: JK Dobbins
Position: Running back
Pro Team: Baltimore Ravens
College Team: Ohio State Buckeyes
Draft Status: Round two, 55th overall
VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2l_tmU21nNY
COMBINE REVIEW
- Height: 5’9’’
- Weight: 209 pounds
- Hands: 9 1/2″
- 40-yard dash: N/A
- Bench press: 23
- Vertical jump: N/A
- Broad jump: N/A
- Three-Cone: N/A
- 20-yard shuttle: N/A
STRENGTHS
- Has proven he can handle a heavy workload
- Displays good hands out of the backfield
- Executes a good approach to the line of scrimmage with excellent vision and patience to find the hole
- Moves laterally well and can shake defenders out of their shoes with his jump-cut
- Tough to tackle in one-on-one situations
- Excels at reading the momentum of the defense in the open field
- Efficient footwork prevents any wasted movement when stacking moves to gain extra yardage
- Maintains low pad level at the point of contact, allowing him to maximize his power to push the pile
WEAKNESSES
- Struggles to maintain speed while cutting
- He has the assertive demeanor but lacks the suddenness to chain together moves
- Not the most creative runner in open space
- Long speed is questionable considering he got caught from behind multiple times throughout his college career
OPPORTUNITIES
With over 300 touches in his final year with Ohio State, Dobbins proved he can handle a heavy workload. The Ravens will need a young talented running back to lead the charge for the next several years. He can supplement Lamar Jackson’s rushing attack while providing a little gusto with what he can do as a ball carrier.
Speaking of Jackson, with him being one of the best rushing quarterbacks we have ever seen, Dobbins will gain an advantage by seeing larger than life rushing lanes. Defenses will need to account for Jackson’s speed, allowing Dobbins to see more opportunities in space.
30-year-old Mark Ingram is the only running back on the roster standing in his way. Ingram’s contract officially expires at the end of the 2021 season, but the Ravens have a potential out at the end of this year since the dead cap figure drops to just $1.33 million. Dobbins might face some competition during the early stages of his career, but he will be the lead dog in Baltimore’s backfield for a long time.
THREATS
As much as Jackson’s rushing ability will help Dobbins, it could also prevent him from hitting his ceiling. We could see Jackson cannibalize some of his opportunities. This goes for along the goal line and receiving enough carries to maintain the week-to-week consistency to be a reliable RB1 in fantasy. Dual-threat quarterbacks who can shred defenses on the ground are less likely to check it down to the running back in the flat. When they see open space in front of them and their first couple reads are not gaining separation, taking off for a large gain is the easy decision for them to make.
Ingram is a threat for the short-term. He is in line to be the team’s starting running back. We don’t know how long he can hold down being the feature back role with Dobbins breathing down his neck. If Ingram plays well, then it might be a while before we see Dobbins fully unleashed.
Justice Hill shouldn’t be a threat, but stranger things have happened. He rushed for 3,539 and 30 touchdowns during his three-year career at Oklahoma State. The Ravens selected him in the fourth round of the 2019 draft. He packs plenty of speed and burst to make things happen if given an opportunity and is very elusive when given the ball in space. Dobbins should easily fend him off from stealing any of the workload.
Image from DLF’s Player Combine Performance App.
We saw the Ravens barely use Hill last year, then they rushed out and drafted Dobbins in the second round. This might be a sign they are frustrated with Hill and they need to make sure they are prepared for when Ingram is done handling the load for the team.
SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS
His career path is very easy to project. Ingram will be in the way immediately, but once he starts showing the wear on his tires, Dobbins will step in and take the job. We should expect him to slowly chip away at the snap share out of the backfield during his rookie season. He could start seeing meaningful touches somewhere during the mid-way point of the season. Worst case scenario, we have to wait until the next year before we see him featured in the offense.
Projecting his fantasy value during the first couple of years of his career will depend on when the Ravens decide to give him the keys to the car. Once he becomes the team’s lead back, he will instantly have RB1 potential. Dobbins is more than capable of finishing next year as a top-five running back in fantasy. On the contrary, his situation could prevent him from seeing enough touches to hit his ceiling.
LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS
At a minimum, he should settle in has a dependable high-end RB2 for fantasy. Jackson might limit his receiving production, but the rushing lanes are going to be extra wide for him to run through. It’s very safe to say that Dobbins is going to make an impact in fantasy. He will more than likely contribute to your fantasy team if you burned one of your top picks in your rookie draft on him. The upside is through the roof, but his floor is almost as high, making him a very safe asset to own.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON
Parts of his game reminds me of Dalvin Cook. Both backs do a really good job of catching the ball out of the backfield. They are comparable in size and if Dobbins performed at the combine, he might have posted similar numbers. The one thing that stands out most between the two runners is their natural ability to gain more yards than what the offensive line blocks for them.
If we want to do more player comps, Devin Singletary is not near as athletic as Dobbins, but he has comparable vision and special awareness. Like Dobbins, he can also be used as a receiver out of the backfield while being able to slip past defenders in the open field.
PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE
According to DLF’s Rookie ADP, Dobbins currently holds a 4.30 average draft position and is usually the fourth running back off the board. However, depending on who you are drafting with, you could see him easily drafted within the first three picks. This is a very strong running back class, and with the talent on the board this year, there really isn’t a wrong choice to make.
Superflex rookie drafts are a different story. It depends on how your league values quarterbacks. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa are either getting drafted within the first three or four picks or your league is going to fade them for the high-end running back prospects. With the quarterbacks being highly valued, we could see Dobbins get selected around the 1.5 to 1.07 range, but he also has the chance to get drafted in the top three.
Dobbins is one of the few prospects you will see with a high-floor combined with a high-ceiling. No matter where you draft him, whether it’s with the 1.01 pick or the 1.06, he’s a tremendous value. This might be a once and a lifetime running back class, if Dobbins is your guy then you have to pull the trigger because you might regret it if you don’t.
