Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Joe Burrow, QB CIN

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Joe Burrow

Position: Quarterback

Pro Team: Cincinnati Bengals

College Team: Louisiana State University Tigers

Draft Status: Round one, first overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

• Height: 6’3”
• Weight: 221 pounds
• Arms: 30 7/8”
• Hands: 9”

Burrow did not participate in any athletic testing or drills at the Scouting Combine as the locked-in first overall pick. Burrow is a good, not great athlete, but we don’t have anything quantifiable to measure besides his physical attributes.

Strengths

• Extremely accurate; shows good touch and places the ball nicely downfield
• Cerebral quarterback who processes defenses well and progresses through reads quickly
• Advanced at manipulating defenders with his eyes to create space for his targets
• Shows good mobility and is a creative scrambler in the Tony Romo mold
• Does not panic when pressured and shows the ability to navigate the pocket
• Posted one of the best collegiate passing seasons in history
• Incredibly consistent game in and game out against a very difficult schedule of opponents in 2019
• Durable; has not missed a start in his career
• Hyper-competitive athlete with an intense want-to and desire to be great

Weaknesses

• Doesn’t have a weak arm, but arm strength is far from a strength of his
• Can occasionally hold the ball in the pocket for too long
• Only one year of very good play, which came when offensive mind Joe Brady joined the team
• Small hands could lead to a fumbling concern, although that has not been an issue to date

OPPORTUNITIES

There isn’t much analysis needed here. As the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, Burrow will immediately step into the starting quarterback role on an offense filled with playmakers. The job is his for the next four to five years while he plays on his rookie contract and eventual fifth-year option.

THREATS

There are no threats to Burrow’s job. Ryan Finley was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league in 2019, and he’s set to maintain his backup job again in 2020. Burrow is a locked-in starter for likely the next five seasons and a minimum of the next three years, barring a Mitchell Trubisky-like collapse — which seems nearly impossible.

I am a little concerned about Cincinnati’s offensive line, which has been poor for a number of seasons, but the healthy return of 2019’s first-round pick Jonah Williams should provide a massive boost.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Burrow certainly has lofty expectations placed upon him, but it’s fair to wonder exactly how productive he will be as a rookie. Landing on a team with AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross, Auden Tate, and Joe Mixon bodes well for his chances of posting solid fantasy production.

Having said that, I am legitimately concerned about the acclimation of rookies into their new schemes this year with what could be abbreviated or canceled off-season workouts and training camps. Running backs should have the easiest transitions since there is less projection required with the transition from the college game to the pro game, but a quarterback learning a new scheme and working to develop chemistry with new weapons may be challenging.

Burrow is not a player I’d want to be relying on as my QB1 in my lineup in 2020, although he should be a capable bye-week fill-in. I expect him to improve significantly as the season progresses due to his competitive nature and budding chemistry with his pass-catchers.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

It’s wheels up for Burrow long-term. Green is almost certainly in his final year as a Bengal, but Higgins should be able to seamlessly step into that alpha role in 2021, and Boyd is a terrific security blanket in the slot who will serve as Burrow’s new Justin Jefferson.

Burrow isn’t an elite athlete, but he’s certainly mobile and uses his pocket escapability to add value as a rusher on a few occasions per game. Despite a historic 2019 college season, I don’t think Burrow has an elite fantasy ceiling, but I think it’s very possible for him to have a Matt Ryan/Matthew Stafford type-fantasy career, settling into the range between quarterback six and ten overall for close to a decade or more. I expect Burrow to climb the ranks to the sixth or seventh quarterback in ADP during or after this season.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

Burrow reminds me a lot of Tony Romo. In my estimation, they have comparable arm talent and are eerily similar in terms of how they navigate the pocket and escape pressure. Burrow is probably a better athlete than Romo, who was perpetually underrated in his own right.

As we now commonly see with Romo in the broadcasting booth, he was advanced as a mental processor of the game, using his ability to quickly read defenses and move through his progressions to find the open man. This is Burrow’s strongest asset as well. Romo was a very solid fantasy (and real-life) quarterback for a long time, and I think Burrow is similar in a lot of ways.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

According to our Rookie ADP, Burrow is a late first-rounder (1.12) in 1QB rookie drafts, which honestly shocked me. Given the depth and strength of this class, Burrow is not someone I would look to draft before the mid-second round. Looking into the data a little closer, he was drafted fourth overall in one of the ten mocks, which leads me to believe the drafter may have thought the draft was superflex. His range in the other nine mocks was between 10 and 20 overall, which feels much closer to what you will see in the majority of your leagues.

Burrow is the 1.01 in our superflex Rookie ADP, having been selected first overall in four of six mock drafts and third in the other two (behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jonathan Taylor in both).

Lastly, looking at rookie ADP from actual rookie drafts on MFL (not mock drafts), Burrow is the 2.02 and 14th overall player selected on average, with a range between eight and 20 overall across 381 drafts. Similarly, for superflex or 2QB rookie drafts on MFL, Burrow is the 1.01 with a range between first and fourth overall (258 drafts).