Twitter Observations: Newton’s Next Move and Arcega-Whiteside’s Future?

Michael Moore Posted On May 13, 2020

For redraft players, the time between the NFL Draft and training camp may seem like a dead zone. The transactions that will matter (for the most part) have occurred, rookies are now part of their new franchises and there just isn’t much movement in the league. But dynasty players know better.

Now is the time to take advantage of that rookie pick glow and acquire some sneakily undervalued veterans. Or likewise, try to dump that aging asset for a pick and move on. Both scenarios are covered below in this week’s edition.

A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.

Less is Gore

Jets signing RB Frank Gore to one-year deal. (via @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/35VjW3qbRj

— NFL (@NFL) May 5, 2020

It’s not surprising that the Jets went out and signed a veteran to supplement Le’Veon Bell’s workload. It’s not even a surprise that Adam Gase went out and chose Frank Gore for the job. But in doing so, the Jets have, literally, the oldest backfield in the league while creating a scenario that will see Bell carry the ball even less.

It was not a great first year in New York for Bell. Yes, he touched the ball over 300 times but failed to clear 1,200 total yards for the first time since 2015 and scored only four times. Now, because of the volume, Bell was still relevant in fantasy and finished as a top-20 back. But the drop-off has translated to a decline in dynasty ADP.

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Dynasty Impact: Gore’s addition wouldn’t have changed the trend Bell’s dynasty ADP has experienced. He’s getting older and the team around him (not including Gore) isn’t getting any better. There’s also the ongoing presence of head coach Gase who didn’t even want Bell in the first place. Put all that together and you have a running back on his way out. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, you can reasonably offer Bell for a late first in this year’s rookie draft. I would start shopping now as this year’s class is strong and it’s possible you obtain a player who could match Bell’s production immediately while getting at least five years younger.

Newton-free Diet

From NFL Now: Free agent QB Cam Newton has not ruled out a backup QB job in the right situation, I'm told. He wants to be (and should be) a starter. But he's open to being a backup. pic.twitter.com/g89M6vAgyv

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) May 7, 2020

Count me as one of those who doesn’t understand why Cam Newton isn’t a starter right now. Sure, he’s coming off an injury-riddled 2019 season, but he’s consistently proven to be a great quarterback who also led his team to a Super Bowl.

In his last (mostly) full season, he threw for over 3,000 yards while averaging more than seven yards per attempt, and his 24 passing touchdowns were tied for the second-most of his career. His rushing numbers were down but still totaled almost 500 yards that year, finishing only behind rookies Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen plus Deshaun Watson. All that equaled a borderline QB1 fantasy season from Newton.

Dynasty Impact: Obviously, it’s hard to gauge Newton’s value if he’s not signed to an actual team but I wouldn’t let that stop you from taking a stab at acquiring him.

His value has tanked to that of a borderline QB2, yet we have no proof that it’s what he’ll be when it comes to fantasy scoring. Backup quarterbacks can be had for such an insanely cheap (think fourth-round rookie pick or cheaper) price right now that it would be worth it even if Newton ends up as a backup. Unless he lands on the ten teams or so that have an elite option at quarterback, every other starting job could be his. Furthermore, he’d most likely sign a short-term deal so he’s back on the market next year. That’s what you’re paying for and what I would target him with your 2020 rookie picks.

Double Charged

#Chargers OC Shane Steichen says the offense will feature more than just two running backs as in past season.

"All three of those guys are going to share the load. They all bring something unique."

— Jason B. Hirschhorn (@by_JBH) April 29, 2020

Some might see this tweet as a downgrade of Austin Ekeler. However, when you consider Ekeler was a top-five fantasy running back last season, despite still playing second-fiddle to Melvin Gordon in the run game, you’ll relax and carry on. No, this tweet is a positive sign for third-year running back Justin Jackson. With the departure of Gordon, that leaves a ton of touches for somebody not named Ekeler.

Dynasty Impact: Jackson was clearly behind Gordon and Ekeler last year but on his 29 carries averaged nearly seven yards per carry. Yes, the Chargers added fourth-round pick Joshua Kelley in the draft, but Jackson is a much more known asset. For the same late-third round rookie pick it would take to acquire Kelly, why not go after Jackson? He’s the incumbent and the coaching staff already knows what he can do. There’s also 200 of Gordon’s touches to account for which means somebody will benefit. This is a rare case of being able to use a rookie pick this late on a known quantity. I’m buying.

Eagle Scout Team

JJ Arcega Whiteside says during his rookie season he was so banged up, sometimes he needed help getting to the bathroom in the morning https://t.co/qIXAS0Y7pE

— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) May 5, 2020

No matter the reason, it was a tough rookie campaign for JJ Arcega-Whiteside. The 57th-overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft managed just ten receptions for 169 yards on 22 targets. So, despite being the sixth receiver taken, his receptions were good for just 26th among rookie receivers. Injuries would explain part of it, but the Eagles also had a lot of mouths to feed with seven players seeing more targets than Arcega-Whiteside.

Dynasty Impact: The dynasty value for a second-round pick can’t drop much quicker than Arcega-Whiteside’s did. From in the 40s (positionally) as a rookie down to the 80s as of this month, several dynasty teams are regretting their choice already.

And while I would normally seek to obtain the value of a real-life second-round pick at such a low cost, there just isn’t much of a path for Arcega-Whiteside to gain that value back. Nelson Agholor was the only player ahead of him in targets that isn’t there anymore plus they added first-round pick Jalen Reagor to the mix. That also doesn’t account for the acquisitions of Marquise Goodwin and DeSean Jackson who missed most of last season with an injury. Arcega-Whiteside is a hold right now only because there doesn’t seem to be much of a market for him anyway.

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Michael Moore

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Michael has played fantasy football for over 20 years when his mom funded his first team in the fourth grade. He’s contributed to various fantasy football publications and most recently spent five years writing for the Fantasy side of things at Pro Football Focus.