Every year, there are rookies who bust. We want to help you avoid that by making sure they are taken at the right spot in your rookie drafts. Below are seven players who, in my opinion, will be drafted too high. You don’t want to be caught up in the mess of trying to sell them after they have lost their rookie value.
Henry Ruggs, WR LV
(DLF Rookie ADP: 10)
Ruggs will be overdrafted because many people will see that “first wide receiver off the board in the NFL Draft” hype, but that will not carry over to fantasy football. Sometimes we need to step back and look at the players who were drafted behind him.
Instead of Ruggs, you could draft the following receivers at this spot in rookie drafts: Tee Higgins, Denzel Mims, and Michael Pittman. Ruggs’ speed will account for some very long touchdowns and some high fantasy point totals in some weeks, however I am looking for more consistency than a boom/bust player in the first round.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB TB
(DLF Rookie ADP: 11)
There is no doubt that Vaughn will be overdrafted this year. He was drafted by Tom Brady‘s Buccaneers, but let’s not forget about the fact Ronald Jones is still in Tampa. I’m not advising that RoJo is going to take over this backfield once and for all, but the anticipation of Vaughn being a bellcow is a bit premature.
Vaughn and RoJo look to split this backfield but don’t be surprised if Dare Ogunbowale is the thorn in the side of both the other running backs by stealing away some of the pass-catching work.
Joe Burrow, QB CIN
(DLF Rookie ADP: 15)
In one-quarterback leagues, a QB being drafted at the 2.03 in 12-team leagues is a bit premature. We all know the adage of drafting QBs late in these leagues because so many will put up top-12 numbers, and there is no change when looking at rookie drafts either.
If you are in some of the leagues that start more than nine players, it is important to get some of the better talent at other positions. Right after Burrow, we have Brandon Aiyuk, Laviska Shenault, and AJ Dillon being drafted, all of whom project to have a good chunk of their offenses by 2021.
Chase Claypool, WR PIT
(DLF Rookie ADP: 28)
Claypool, though drafted with high capital (second round), gives me significant pause because he is going to be sitting fourth on the depth chart. Right behind Claypool in ADP are some running backs who have a clear path to playing time in Anthony McFarland and Darrynton Evans.
With all the receivers in Pittsburgh still under contract for the next couple of years (JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington and Diontae Johnson), Claypool doesn’t have a clear path to playing time. Knowing he will not receive as many snaps, Claypool will not return value on his draft capital.
Joshua Kelley, RB LAC
(DLF Rookie ADP: 28)
Kelley currently slots third in the depth chart behind both Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson. With Ekeler just signing his new four-year contract, it is clear that Kelley will not receive any receiving work out of the backfield barring injury. Plus, Justin Jackson still has two years left on his deal.
So, for Kelley to return value, two things have to happen: The first is that Kelley beats out Jackson for that number two role and the second? The Chargers must continue to utilize two running backs heavily.
KJ Hamler, WR DEN
(DLF Rookie ADP: 33)
Hamler is a curious case from the NFL Draft because he was the youngest receiver in the class, but was still able to put up quality production at Penn State. Hamler currently slots as the fourth or fifth option on this team for targets.
Behind Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, and possibly DaeSean Hamilton – another Penn State product – it is going to be tough to see a high ceiling from Hamler on his first contract. If you are in a league that counts return yards, Hamler might return value initially, but it is going to be tough for him to carve out any significant work in that offense.
Eno Benjamin, RB ARI
(DLF Rookie ADP: 42)
I know that Benjamin is being taken in the fourth round and many would say “why not?” on taking a shot on Benjamin. However, he will not see even close to an immediate return and if you are on a team with a shallow bench, you will end up dropping him as a waste of a pick because he will not see any immediate playing time.
Benjamin was drafted in just the seventh round by the Cardinals and it has been made clear that they want to sign Kenyan Drake to a long-term extension. Chase Edmonds still has two years left on his deal, so there isn’t a clear path for Benjamin to even receive the number two running back work in Arizona until 2022.
Thank you so much for taking the time to read this piece. Feel free to ask any questions that you have and as always you can follow me on Twitter @Devy_Kane.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Quintez Cephus, WR DET - July 10, 2020
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Jacob Eason, QB IND - June 26, 2020
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: AJ Dillon, RB GB - June 10, 2020