Every year, there are rookies who bust. We want to help you avoid that by making sure they are taken at the right spot in your rookie drafts. Below are seven players who, in my opinion, will be drafted too high. You don’t want to be caught up in the mess of trying to sell them after they have lost their rookie value.
Henry Ruggs, WR LV
(DLF Rookie ADP: 10)
Ruggs will be overdrafted because many people will see that “first wide receiver off the board in the NFL Draft” hype, but that will not carry over to fantasy football. Sometimes we need to step back and look at the players who were drafted behind him.
Instead of Ruggs, you could draft the following receivers at this spot in rookie drafts: Tee Higgins, Denzel Mims, and Michael Pittman. Ruggs’ speed will account for some very long touchdowns and some high fantasy point totals in some weeks, however I am looking for more consistency than a boom/bust player in the first round.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB TB
(DLF Rookie ADP: 11)
There is no doubt that Vaughn will be overdrafted this year. He was drafted by Tom Brady‘s Buccaneers, but let’s not forget about the fact Ronald Jones is still in Tampa. I’m not advising that RoJo is going to take over this backfield once and for all, but the anticipation of Vaughn being a bellcow is a bit premature.
Vaughn and RoJo look to split this backfield but don’t be surprised if Dare Ogunbowale is the thorn in the side of both the other running backs by stealing away some of the pass-catching work.
Joe Burrow, QB CIN
(DLF Rookie ADP: 15)
In one-quarterback leagues, a QB being drafted at the 2.03 in 12-team leagues is a bit premature. We all know the adage of drafting QBs late in these leagues because so many will put up top-12 numbers, and there is no change when looking at rookie drafts either.
If you are in some of the leagues that start more than nine players, it is important to get some of the better talent at other positions. Right after Burrow, we have Brandon Aiyuk, Laviska Shenault, and AJ Dillon being drafted, all of whom project to have a good chunk of their offenses by 2021.
Chase Claypool, WR PIT
(DLF Rookie ADP: 28)
Claypool, though drafted with high capital (second round), gives me significant pause because he is going to be sitting fourth on the depth chart. Right behind Claypool in ADP are some running backs who have a clear path to playing time in Anthony McFarland and Darrynton Evans.
With all the receivers in Pittsburgh still under contract for the next couple of years (JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington and Diontae Johnson), Claypool doesn’t have a clear path to playing time. Knowing he will not receive as many snaps, Claypool will not return value on his draft capital.
Joshua Kelley, RB LAC
(DLF Rookie ADP: 28)
Kelley currently slots third in the depth chart behind both Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson. With Ekeler just signing his new four-year contract, it is clear that Kelley will not receive any receiving work out of the backfield barring injury. Plus, Justin Jackson still has two years left on his deal.
So, for Kelley to return value, two things have to happen: The first is that Kelley beats out Jackson for that number two role and the second? The Chargers must continue to utilize two running backs heavily.
KJ Hamler, WR DEN
(DLF Rookie ADP: 33)
Hamler is a curious case from the NFL Draft because he was the youngest receiver in the class, but was still able to put up quality production at Penn State. Hamler currently slots as the fourth or fifth option on this team for targets.
Behind Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, and possibly DaeSean Hamilton – another Penn State product – it is going to be tough to see a high ceiling from Hamler on his first contract. If you are in a league that counts return yards, Hamler might return value initially, but it is going to be tough for him to carve out any significant work in that offense.
Eno Benjamin, RB ARI
(DLF Rookie ADP: 42)
I know that Benjamin is being taken in the fourth round and many would say “why not?” on taking a shot on Benjamin. However, he will not see even close to an immediate return and if you are on a team with a shallow bench, you will end up dropping him as a waste of a pick because he will not see any immediate playing time.
Benjamin was drafted in just the seventh round by the Cardinals and it has been made clear that they want to sign Kenyan Drake to a long-term extension. Chase Edmonds still has two years left on his deal, so there isn’t a clear path for Benjamin to even receive the number two running back work in Arizona until 2022.
Thank you so much for taking the time to read this piece. Feel free to ask any questions that you have and as always you can follow me on Twitter @Devy_Kane.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Quintez Cephus, WR DET - July 10, 2020
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Jacob Eason, QB IND - June 26, 2020
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: AJ Dillon, RB GB - June 10, 2020
I’m confused. Ruggs is going to be both over and underdrafted? I agree about Vaughn though.
Two different author’s. Kane is obviously wrong, as I own Ruggs. Lol. But I got him in the 2nd round, so I viewed the upside too great at that point.
My apologies I didn’t realize it was a different author. Ruggs is definitely a polarizing player but one that I’ll have to make some tough calls on in my leagues. I have a few where I have multiple 1sts and debating if I want to try and hit a HR with him in those leagues or opt for a safer option that might not have the highest ceiling.
Thanks for the analysis guys!
JuJu is in the final year of his contract.
“So, for Kelley to return value, two things have to happen: The first is that Kelley beats out Jackson for that number two role and the second? The Chargers must continue to utilize two running backs heavily.“ Both of these feel highly likely to occur from where I’m sitting… and it isn’t like MGIII had 0 receptions while playing alongside Ekeler. While I’d temper expectations for Year 1, I think the potential for upside is clear, and I’m getting him late round 3. Generally agree with the rest, however.
Juju is in his last year of his contract and there is a good chance they won’t be able to resign him. I hope they do but with the Steelers cap situation he could be playing somewhere else next year leaving Claypool with a chance at a big role next year
Dang Kane why is everyone so on you about your Ruggs opinion? I think you make a great argument. Ruggs fits the “boom or bust” play style very well, he has the potential for a couple 30+ point games this year but he also has the potential to score less than 10 points quite often if he can’t break those big plays. I don’t see Ruggs being a guy who catches 6-8 balls a week or has a lot of opportunities every game. I think his weekly scoring will be inconsistent.
Vaughn is so overvalued right now. He’s 2020’s Darrell Henderson in Dynasty drafts.
If he was so good, he would have gone in the 2nd round with all the other RBs.
I would suspect TB brings in a veteran if they don’t like what Vaughn looks like to begin camp, whenever that is.
TB12 didn’t show up there to get blown up by a rookie RB.
I don’t get the Ruggs hate. He’s not just a deep threat like everyone assumes. I wasn’t particularly high on him predraft, but he did go first overall and to a team that needs weapons. I wasn’t planning on getting him anywhere as I expected him to go in the 1st, but he’s sliding into the 2nd in every draft I’ve been in. He’s turned into a value just like Marquis Brown was last year. He’s definitely not overvalued.
Brian, I don’t think it’s hate on Ruggs. It’s just logic, but logic that misses the mark.
John Gruden’s #1 WR receives a massive target share. Ruggs is going to be that #1, it just may take a year to get him to be the dominant WR. For this season, Tyrell Williams (assuming healthy) could still be a nice player in my opinion.
While I understand veterans having remaining years on their contracts should be noted, this article lists this as an absolute “well, DUH” reason that a rookie has no shot at snaps. Sure, Justin Jackson has years left, but what has he done to show he has a strangle hold on the #2 job in LA? Plus, Jackson is only owed $750,000 this season, and he’s a RFA after the season. Early 3rd round is where you take chances in a rookie draft on guys like Kelley.
I just don’t believe players can be overdrafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds.
Claypool in the 3rd will be a steal in any draft. Just don’t expect a lot of production year 1.
