Is the Sell-High Window Closing on Christian McCaffrey?
Outside of superflex formats, you would be hard-pressed to find a player ranker or ADP chart that does not have Christian McCaffrey as the consensus 1.01. It is easy to understand why. The versatile back has put up video game-like numbers in back to back seasons and has been an RB1 all three years he has been in the league.
There is no question that McCaffrey has been a stud. Using the Yearly Data App courtesy of DLF, we see that his points per game are out of this world, almost doubling since his rookie year.
Cause for Concern
The Stanford grad quietly accumulated over 400 touches in 2019. Seem like a lot? It is. Since 2000, only 18 different times has a player shouldered that hefty of a load over the course of a season. One would think there would have to be a decline the following season – and the overall trends seem to suggest just that. The decline is pretty significant and this is where the concern starts to creep in.
Decrease in Touches
Looking at the data from the 18 prior times a player touched the ball 400 plus times, only once did a player receive more touches the season following 400 or more the prior year (Ricky Williams, 2002). What we can also see is that on average, players saw an average of 119.39 fewer touches the following season.
Many players saw significantly less involvement the year after their monster usage with well over 200 touches less than the prior year. The bright side is that despite being down an average of over 100 touches year over year, the players still saw, on average, 306.39 touches the following season.
Decrease in Points
Equally concerning as the reduction in the number of touches seen during follow-up campaigns is the reduction in points. Much like the year-over-year touches, the year-over-year points decreased even more – to the tune of 137.73 fewer points on average the next season.
Just like we saw with the touches, only once did a player score more following up the big season (LaDainian Tomlinson in 2003). That being said, McCaffrey would still be on pace for 333.47 points. Any owner would take that production for any given season. However, the next two points covered are the most concerning and maybe why you may want to consider selling.
Decrease in Number of Games Played
While not an alarming number, the average number of games played the year after receiving 400-plus touches dips down to 13.78 – over two full games missed. About a third of the players listed notched 12 games or less in their encore season.
*Did not play in 2004, **Did not play in 2018
All of this is not to say that McCaffrey will not play a full slate of games in 2020, but the odds are certainly stacked against him. Only six of the 18 times 400-plus touches were recorded did the player see the field for a full season next time around. It is also worth noting that two players – Ricky Williams and Le’Veon Bell – did not even see the field at all the following season, although neither case was related to injury.
Career Wear and Tear
Perhaps the most troubling stat from the data gathered was the number of RB1 or RB2 seasons the running backs recorded after being utilized so exhaustively. Granted McCaffrey is on the younger side of many of the players that reached this milestone, but it is worrisome seeing how much players seem to decline.
We can see that after the tremendous pounding these guys take, they do not appear to return to form unless their name is LaDainian Tomlinson. Looking at the numbers, outside of the Chargers phenom, most players saw zero, one, or two RB1 seasons and just an average of 1.33 RB2 finishes.
The other intriguing piece here is that the players continued to play for a little over five years after their big hauls. You may get several more years out of McCaffrey, but what kind of production will you see. This is what screams sell.
What If?
Could CMC be the next LT? Sure. But what if he is not? Now maybe the time to sell high and get that big payday for him.
The risk you do run if you sell the Carolina Panther do-everything back is: what if he is the next Tomlinson? The first three years of their careers are eerily similar. Using the Yearly Data Table from DLF, we see striking similarities.
The three-year PPR averages are 359.1 for McCaffrey and 370.4 for Tomlinson – interesting to say the least. Keep in mind that the former TCU Horned Frog star was a generational talent.
Wrapping It Up
If you think you will get the same production for years to come from the current consensus 1.01, then this article is not for you. If you want to look at the data at face value, then you should at least consider selling while the price is at an all-time high. The odds are stacked against long term success no matter how you spin it.
One would also have to believe that with the weapons the Panthers have added and the changes to the coaching staff this off-season that there will be some negative regression from the 19 touchdowns CMC provided for owners in 2019.
Thank you for reading and feel free to comment below or hit me up on Twitter (@FFJeffSmith).
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
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