Twitter Observations: Draft Reaction and Fifth-Year Options
It is now post-post-draft week and we’ve had even more time to scrutinize what teams did in the draft while listening to (possibly-but-probably not important) sound bites from teams and coaches. There were also a few fifth-year option decisions made by teams that will slightly affect your dynasty roster. Below is a combination of both as rookie drafts ramp up.
End of Corey
The #Titans are declining WR Corey Davis' fifth-year option, source said.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) May 1, 2020
Not that this development comes as a surprise, but the Titans made it official: Corey Davis will be seeking a new contract next year, most likely with a different team. Davis never quite lived up to the expectations he inherited as the number five pick of the 2017 Draft, not to mention being a top pick in rookie drafts that year. His best season came in 2018 with 65 receptions for a whopping 891 yards and four touchdowns and was good for just a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 fantasy finish. And that was before the Titans drafted AJ Brown last year and traded for Ryan Tannehill who completely took over the Titans offense.
Dynasty Impact: In reality, this may be the best thing to happen to Davis’ dynasty value. He’s officially playing second fiddle to AJ Brown after Brown broke out his rookie season while both are stuck on a pass-averse offense as shown by the Titans finishing dead-last in pass attempts last season with 27 per game.
That kind of offense can produce a single receiver finishing as a top-25 receiver (Brown) but not two. Luckily, Davis is still young enough to have some dynasty value. He’ll be just 25 this year and 26 when he enters unrestricted free agency. He’s talented enough and has the draft capital behind him to warrant a low pick as a flyer for your dynasty team especially if you’re rebuilding.
Bear Market
Bears declined the fifth-year option on QB Mitchell Trubisky, as @TomPelissero also reported.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 2, 2020
Well, Bears fans had a good run. They thought their quarterback problems were solved after trading up one whole spot in 2017 (including giving up the pick that ultimately became Alvin Kamara) to draft Mitchell Trubisky second overall. Since then, Trubisky flashed some promise with a decent sophomore season when he threw for 24 touchdowns and rushed for over 400 yards while the Bears made the playoffs. But he took a huge step back in 2019, throwing for just 17 touchdowns despite 80 more pass attempts and totaling the lowest rushing yardage total of his brief career. That decline was enough for the Bears as they traded for Nick Foles this past off-season followed by the decision to decline Trubisky’s fifth-year option.
Dynasty Impact: For those hanging on to Trubisky in the hopes that his dynasty value would improve, it’s safe to say that ship has sailed. He showed flashes but they were short-lived and are reflected in his dynasty ADP above. This year doesn’t project to be much better even if you don’t include the Bears bringing in competition. The only additions to the offense were 30-something skill position players past their prime in the forms of Jimmy Graham and Ted Ginn.
It appears Trubisky is on track to be a career backup starting as soon as this year. His draft pedigree and physical tools will be hard for teams to completely ignore but he’s also proven to be unable to carry an entire franchise. I’d trade him now for even your last pick in a rookie draft.
Dobbins Tale
ICYMI: @Ravens GM Eric DeCosta raves to @AdamSchein about new RB J.K. Dobbins & says "it would have been irresponsible" for the team to not draft him when he fell to 55th overall pic.twitter.com/6ffeb2oy0Q
— Mad Dog Sports Radio (@MadDogRadio) April 29, 2020
Admittedly, it’s prime time for coach-speak but it’s also hard to not get excited about JK Dobbins and the Ravens. He may have been the fifth running back taken in the draft, but he also landed in arguably the best situation. The Ravens current offense is the most run-heavy in the league, averaging nearly five more carries per game last year than the next closest team. On top of that, Mark Ingram, who led the Ravens in rush attempts last year is 30 years old and will have just one year left on his contract after the 2020 season. The second-leading running back, Gus Edwards, will be gone no later than next off-season. In all, that’s over 300 carries for Dobbins to gobble up in either of the next two years.
Dynasty Impact: According to the DLF Rookie Draft App, you should be able to grab Dobbins with the third pick but could also be lucky enough to land him in picks five-seven. If it were me, I’d be looking to move up to three to insure I pick Dobbins. Statistically, he outrushed Ohio State legends like Ezekiel Elliott and was a 99th-percentile SPARQ athlete coming out of high school. He now heads to the top rushing team in the league headed by the top rushing quarterback, Lamar Jackson.
Loose Brandon
Kyle Shanahan’s #1 WR on the board, Brandon Aiyuk. The #49ers’ offense is gonna rack up the YAC and be fun to watch 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/gkWvw4ofgp
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers_) April 29, 2020
Much like there are a ton of running backs to choose from this year in rookie drafts, there are undoubtedly more receivers. There were six receivers taken in the first round of the actual draft with another seven taken in the second. With all those receivers, you would think that draft capital plays an important role, yet there is consistently one first-round receiver being taken behind the second-round options.
Brandon Aiyuk was the last receiver taken in the first round of the actual draft yet is consistently taken in rookie drafts after receivers with worse NFL Draft capital. According to the DLF Rookie Draft App, Aiyuk is available through the entire first round of rookie drafts and falling behind multiple second-round receivers, a third-round running back and even a quarterback!
Dynasty Impact: Aiyuk is officially the highest-drafted receiver of the John Lynch/Kyle Shanahan-era which is enough for me. After whiffing on Dante Pettis two years ago, they struck gold with YAC-monster Deebo Samuel and are primed to do it again with Aiyuk. Just look at what they did to Samuel’s dynasty value over the last year!
The players being taken ahead of Aiyuk in rookie drafts include Denzel Mims, drafted by fantasy-killer Adam Gase, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who couldn’t even make it to his all-conference team and will start his career sharing touches with Ronald Jones. We hear all the time how running backs’ fantasy success are largely determined by their situation, but receivers aren’t far behind.
- Dynasty Trending Observations: Stefon Diggs Moves on - April 14, 2024
- Dynasty Trending Observations: What Next for Brandon Aiyuk? - March 31, 2024
- Dynasty Trending Observations: Free Agent Frenzy - March 17, 2024
