Inside the Dynasty War Room: DLF Reacts to Round Two of the 2020 NFL Draft

Ryan McDowell

It’s no secret the NFL Draft has a major impact on player value. This includes not only the incoming rookies but, in many cases, the veterans who are displaced as a result of the pick. From January through April, every fantasy football article, podcast, video focused on rookies will include a reminder that everything changes once we get the final piece of information that comes once players are drafted.

At DLF, this is our busiest time of year. Over the coming days, our team will be busy churning out written, audio, and video content, updating our dynasty rankings and rookie rankings, and finalizing our annual Rookie Draft Guide. To accomplish this, our team of writers has to quickly process the ever-changing player value. With the first two days in the books, I wanted to offer a look into the minds of the DLF team of writers. I asked our team six reflective questions as the night was winding down. The responses can teach all dynasty players a great deal as we process round one and prepare for more action over the weekend.

1.When ranking and drafting rookies, how do you weigh long-term wide receiver value vs short-term running back production?

I think short term running back production often gets overstated, with many running backs selected in the third round and later seeing nothing more than NFL RB2 touches. With the top backs, I understand going toward the earlier production, but people who take third-round running backs over first-round receivers make me scratch my head. (Nathan Powell)

At the top of the rankings, I value running backs more than receivers because they will offer instant production. After that comes the top receivers and then it goes down from there. I guess what I’m trying to say is I don’t really have a process for short term running back value versus long term wide receiver value. (Addison Hayes)

I tend to not let that play too much into which players I draft. While there is a large difference between the length of the average career between receivers and backs, dynasty leagues sometimes don’t even last that long, nor do windows of winning or rebuilding. I’ll look more at the types of player I need on my team, or if the value is right, long before weighing decisions that I won’t have to make for years. Obviously, if you are rebuilding, wide receivers will retain value longer, but at the same time running backs can get you started into productive years. (Adam Tzikas)

Running backs will have more value because their ‘lifespan’ is shorter, and you have to capitalize on their production. If you miss on wide receivers, there is such a vast window to acquire a valuable option. Having a stud wide receiver isn’t everything but having stud running backs can’t really set teams up for success. (Dwight Peebles)

It’s certainly important to keep receivers’ much more favorable career spans in mind. However, dynasty owners tend to get near-sighted with prospects. In turn, rookies who produce in year one can rise much higher than they perhaps should, especially in cases of running backs filling into injury gaps. Meanwhile, receivers settling into an offense will suffer. Thus, the long-term values at receiver see their values suffer, while backs appreciate. So, when viewing rookies as assets with rising and falling values, you must account for what the market will do with players, even if it may not be totally correct. Thus, I tend to place backs with easy roads to production a bit higher than I believe they should go, and the reverse for receivers in crowded receiving corps. Of course, this comes with the assumption that drafting owners will make use of next off-season’s trading windows for current rookies. (Stephen Gill)

In terms of my own personal teams, it really depends on my roster and how I view my chances at winning the title this year. The worst thing you can be is middle of the road, so you really need to spend some time examining your team. With that said, I typically lean towards running backs if I feel like talent and situation are mostly equal because good, consistent backs seem to be harder to find these days. (Jacob Feldman)

Building a team that can be in win-now mode is always enticing and makes the stud running backs very appealing when it comes to ranking and drafting. I try to look at the more the long-term approach and therefore apply a little more value to the return on investment that can be had by getting a high-profile wide receiver. Knowing that receivers can take a little longer to develop has to factor in. The longer shelf-life of a good receiver can truly pay-off when it comes to building a competitive team for a longer duration. (John Hesterman)

Long term wide receiver value is king for all but the teams I am one or two moves away from serious contention in. I will only commit to a high-end running back if I was in the playoffs the year prior, and more so if I was in the semi-finals, finals, or league champion. It is with these teams that you need production immediately. Teams that exited from the first round of the playoffs or failed to make them in the first place, you need to take a longer view, get your feet under you for that push and to ride the wave in a few seasons. (The FF Ghost)

This is a great question and mostly revolves around team need for me. If I’m in win now mode I’m more likely to take a running back as they contribute early often more than a wideout. If I’m in a rebuild I’d value wideout more, most likely. (James Koutoulas)

Obviously, running backs have shorter shelf lives in the NFL than receivers. I don’t spend much time thinking long-term vs. short-term, as I believe those costs are often baked into their respective prices. With running backs having shorter careers, you need to draft more of them more often to keep refreshing the position, while at receiver, they may take a few years to hit their stride, but they’ll be productive for a longer period, and everyone knows that going into the draft. As far as drafting, I make my picks based on team need, so if I need help at running back more than receiver, I’ll typically take the best running back on my board. (John DiBari)

I structure my dynasty teams around the wide receiver position long-term, but my philosophy in rookie drafts is to build around highly drafted running backs early, then pivot to wide receivers in the second round and later. I really only focus on day one and day two runners. Immediate running back production vaults them up dynasty rankings and makes them more valuable short-term assets versus most rookie receivers. I will then pivot off those runners to the receiver position two or three years down the line, but before they enter the final years of their rookie deals and everyone realizes they are diminishing assets. (Jospeh Nammour)

2. Is there any player/team combination from day three that could result in a top-20 rookie draft ranking?

No. But if there is one, it’d be Eno Benjamin going to the Miami Dolphins. That’d be an exciting fit. (Powell)

Gandy-Golden to the Packers. (Hayes)

The first player combo I could think of would be Eno Benjamin going to Miami. He can be the guy right away and is a talented runner as well. This pairing could cause him to jump from an ADP of 27 into that top 20 group. (Tzikas)

If the Packers finally address wide receiver with a player like Donovan Peoples-Jones or Gabriel Davis, one of those becomes top-20 albeit it later in the group. In super-flex, I think Jacob Eason could be top-20 due to positional value and a good landing spot such as Pittsburgh. (Peebles)

Compared to the rest of the league, there’s a gaping hole in the Miami Dolphins depth chart at running back. If a talented back falls to Miami in the fourth round, he would likely have immense opportunity for production in year one; we’ve seen similar success stories in the past. And, following a highly productive year one, such a back could be flipped for strong value in the off-season. For that reason, I’d certainly consider a fourth-round running back drafted by the Dolphins. (Gill)

I don’t see anything that would get me there with what is left. Draft capital does matter. Out of the players who are left, I don’t see anyone who has that level of talent either. I’m a huge Tyler Johnson fan (largely because he is a Minnesota guy), but even if he landed in a great spot, I think even I wouldn’t take him in the top 20 right now. (Feldman)

If there is anyone out there that has that diamond in the rough appeal, for me it’s Eno Benjamin. After a disappointing 2019 season, Benjamin has taken a bit of a skid when it comes to draft ranking. However, he is a player who has double-digit touchdowns in his two previous seasons and has a punishing run-style. The right landing spot could make him a viable weapon early on. The first team that comes to mind is the Miami Dolphins. (Hesterman)

Isaiah Hodgins/Giants, Eno Benjamin/(Miami, San Francisco). Hodgins mainly because he is so reminiscent of Odell Beckham Jr. on a team that needs wide receiver help like few others in the NFL. Benjamin is one of the last running backs who could slide into a starting role immediately and improve a team from day one. (Ghost)

Yes. Players I love like Donavan People-Jones could land in the top 20 with an elite landing spot. (Koutoulas)

I’ve got a couple of combos I’d like to see on day three. Green Bay can save this disaster of a draft if they pound the wide receiver position with a couple of their six remaining picks. SMU’s James Proche and Michigan’s Donovan Peoples-Jones could both carve out a role as the Aaron Rodgers revenge tour begins. A few teams could use some help at running back, Illinois State’s James Robinson and Memphis’ Patrick Taylor could be under the radar fantasy breakouts if they landed in Miami, Seattle, or San Francisco. (DiBari)

I don’t think so. Running back is the only chance left at cracking the top 20, but almost all of the best landing spots have dried up. Eno Benjamin, Lamical Perine, and Anthony McFarland are my three favorite players remaining, and Pittsburgh or Atlanta would be good destinations, but I don’t see the Steelers drafting Benjamin, and that is the only combination that entices me in the top 20 of rookie drafts. None of the remaining quarterbacks have a path to immediate upside, and I’m uninspired by the tight end talent in this class. There are still some decent wide receiver landing spots left, but most of the best players are off the board. Antonio Gandy-Golden, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Tyler Johnson are three I’m keeping an eye on. (Nammour)

3. Which day two rookie gained the most dynasty value?

I’d go with Tee Higgins. There were some who thought the NFL may not have liked him as much as dynasty players, but going at the top of the second paired with Joe Burrow is a great fit with great draft capital making Higgins a late first round rookie pick in dynasty leagues. (Powell)

This is tough. A lot of players went to very favorable landing spots with similar draft capital to where pre-draft rankings are not very much affected. I believe the community will bump Ke’Shawn Vaughn considerably due to the Tampa Bay landing spot. Personally, I loved Tee Higgins going to Cincinnati and pairing him with Joe Burrow for his career. (Hayes)

Michael Pittman out of USC was hanging around in the 11 spot of rookie WR ADP, with his drafting by the Colts, he could jump into the top eight pretty quickly. (Tzikas)

I love Ke’Shawn Vaughn in Tampa Bay as a rookie you can get later who might be a contributor right away. I don’t believe in Ronald Jones at all. Vaughn is a back who can catch the ball, is elusive in the open field, and has ability to hit another gear to break big plays. (Peebles)

Tee Higgins fell into one of the most favorable landing spots for any receiver in the league in the Cincinnati Bengals. Given the Bengals’ willingness to spend so highly on a similarly skilled receiver, it appears that AJ Green‘s days in Cincinnati are numbered. With Green out of the picture, Higgins would be far and away Cincy’s most talented boundary receiver — no offense to the heavy-footed Auden Tate. Higgins should quickly see the field alongside an incredibly promising quarterback prospect in Joe Burrow. (Gill)

For a lot of people, the answer might be Michael Pittman. I was higher than most pre-draft on him though, so the jump was a little less for me. I love the landing spot, though. For me, it is probably Ke’Shawn Vaughn. He was pretty far down my list (outside of the top 30) but landing with the Bucs jumps him up into consideration in the middle to late second in my eyes. I’ll need to go look at him again to decide. (Feldman)

I really like the Denzel Mims pick to the New York Jets. With the departure of Robby Anderson, Mims has an opportunity to step in as the WR1 in this offense. He’s a very good player who lands in a receiver-needy offense with a promising young quarterback. Great pick for the franchise and for Mims’ value. (Hesterman)

Toss-up between Chase Claypool/Pittsburgh & Cam Akers/Los Angeles Rams. Claypool looks to be heading to a team where he can be used either/both as an outside wide receiver and split out tight end. He appears able to step into a starting role immediately with a fair amount of upside and positional flexibility baked in. Akers goes to a Rams team that lost Todd Gurley but who also drafted Darrell Henderson last season. I think Akers fits the role of a bell cow a bit better than Henderson and could step into a starting role immediately. (Ghost)

JK Dobbins. His landing spot in Baltimore puts him firmly in the conversation for #1 overall in non-super-flex leagues. He lands with a team with an aging top back and a run first offense. (Koutoulas)

It was a fun, wild ride on day two. A case could be made for several players, but two players stand out for me personally. I already had Van Jefferson as a top-ten receiver in this class and ending up as the 12th receiver taken in the draft, he should be moving up everyone else’s boards now, too. Ke’Shawn Vaughn is my other riser. I had him as RB6 in this class, but landing with a good supporting cast and a clear path to touches, everyone else should be bumping him up too. (DiBari)

Almost all the running backs landed in good situations, but most of them were thought of highly already. Two players moving up my board are Bryan Edwards and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. I was pleasantly surprised to see Edwards drafted in the third round, but I think he is the perfect fit opposite Henry Ruggs and he has already shown he can produce opposite a really talented receiver (alongside Deebo Samuel in college). Vaughn is a more complete back than Ronald Jones in my opinion, and Tampa Bay has made it known that they were looking for a running back in this draft. (Nammour)

4. Which veteran lost the most dynasty value as a result of day two of the NFL Draft?

Darrell Henderson. Some hoped that he’d be given a chance to start for the Rams, but with the addition of Cam Akers, that is no longer the case. He is now in a 50-50 timeshare at best, for him. (Powell)

Marlon Mack. Easy. (Hayes)

Darrell Henderson likely gets replaced pretty quickly by Cam Akers. They both have similar levels of athleticism and explosion, but I think Akers is a lot more well-rounded and has higher draft capital. (Tzikas)

Marlon Mack unquestionably. The Indy brass drafting workhorse back Jonathan Taylor signals the end for Mack. Maybe not entirely this year, but definitely by next. Taylor can carry the whole load and will take the job. (Peebles)

Marlon Mack. Mack has been one of my absolute favorites since he entered the league, and I was quite excited to see his recent emergence. I’m equally disappointed to see the Colts draft perhaps the most talented running back prospect in Jonathan Taylor. At the very best now, Mack will be locked into a timeshare for the rest of his time in Indy. After that, he’ll face what will likely be another frosty free agent running back market. (Gill)

I don’t know how you can say anyone other than Marlon Mack. He was a middle level RB2 on most rankings heading into the draft behind a great offensive line. Now, he has arguably the most talented pure rusher in the draft on his team. Best case, Mack is going to be a passing situation specialist, but I think even that could fade as the season goes on and Taylor gets a little more experience. Good news for Mack owners is that he is a free agent after this season and might end up in a better situation. Now might actually be a good time to capitalize on the panic his owners might be experiencing and buy him, assuming you can afford to hold him for a year. (Feldman)

I’ve got to go with the obvious choice here. Marlon Mack’s value takes a steep nose-dive the moment the Colts drafted Jonathan Taylor. Taylor has both the build and skillset to be a three-down monster behind that offensive line. If this isn’t the end of the line for Mack in Indy, it’s close enough to see it. Even if they begin by splitting the touches, it won’t take long for them to start leaning more heavily on the better back. (Hesterman)

Tie. Marlon Mack/Colts & Kerryon Johnson/Lions. Both players were great value running back picks in dynasty leagues prior to the NFL Draft. Now, at the close of day two you would have a hard time getting much for either player with the addition of Jonathan Taylor by the Colts and D’Andre Swift by the Lions. Both picks were a surprise as each team appears content with the production from their veterans. At best, each veteran appears likely to be on the wrong side of a time share, at worst, they could be watching most of the season from the sidelines. (Ghost)

Marlon Mack. Jonathan Taylor lands with the Colts and that is a death sentence to Marlon Mack’s fantasy value. Mack is already a liability in pass pro, and he now has a running back who does what he does much better. (Koutoulas)

The easy answers that come to mind are Kerryon Johnson or Marlon Mack, but they both weren’t presenting as high-end dynasty assets with fifth and sixth-round ADPs, respectively. However, the player who is going to see their dynasty value take the biggest hit is likely to be the Packers’ Aaron Jones. Jones had an ADP of 17 only a month ago and has often been taken at the end of the first round. The uncertainty surrounding Jones with the Packers’ selection of AJ Dillon may bump Jones down a round or two. (DiBari)

There are so many running backs that had their value dissipate. Kerryon Johnson, Marlon Mack, Mark Ingram, and Darrell Henderson should fall significantly, while Devin Singletary, Aaron Jones, and Ronald Jones take a minor hit as well. I can’t envision the Packers retaining Jones past this year. (Nammour)

5. Which veteran gained the most dynasty value as a result of day two of the NFL Draft?

As of now, it’s Jordan Howard. He went from assumed to lose his starting position, to a now presumed starting running back for an offense that could get very good quickly. (Powell)

I will give this award to three running backs: Jordan Howard, James Conner, and Austin Ekeler. All three survived significant competition through the first three rounds and are all poised to be workload starters for their teams in 2020. (Hayes)

Getting a bit of a workaround here but drawing on first round selections as well, Drew Lock gained incredible value. The addition of KJ Hamler to the Jerry Jeudy selection gives Lock a huge stable of receivers to throw at. Lock was going in the fourth or fifth tier of quarterbacks but is going to be highly drafted going forward. These two selections with Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant are one of the best receiving corps in the league. (Tzikas)

Grabbing Henry Ruggs in the first was a good step for helping Derek Carr. They knocked it outside of the park in round three, adding versatile weapon Lynn Bowden and technically sound receiver Bryan Edwards. Paired with Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs, this offense is DANGEROUS. (Peebles)

Very surprisingly, Drew Lock. KJ Hamler is this draft class’s fastest receiving prospect behind only Henry Ruggs, and the gap between those two isn’t particularly large. With Hamler’s addition in Denver, Lock has an incredible supporting cast of young talent to work with in Hamler, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, DaeSean Hamilton, and more. I’m dubious as to whether he can actually make much of it, but the chances I give him to do so are much higher now than they were two days ago. (Gill)

You could make an argument for Philip Rivers and Jared Goff as gaining the most thanks to new weapons, but I don’t see their dynasty value changing much. I think it just might be Jordan Howard. We are through three rounds and Miami hasn’t touched the running back position, which leaves Howard in control. They did spend two top 40 picks on the offensive line and upgraded the quarterback position. There is still a very real chance that the Dolphins are still terrible, but as someone who is ranked in the 40s right now, Howard is going to be trending up. (Feldman)
One of the teams I was monitoring was the Pittsburgh Steelers and where they were dropping their draft capital. They did not draft a running back, which means James Conner has thus far retained his role as the lead dog of that backfield. (Hesterman)

Derek Carr/Marcus Mariota. Whoever ends up starting for the Raiders this season (or on any given week) will now have not one, not two, but three new wide receivers to throw to with the addition of Henry Ruggs III, Lynn Bowden and Bryan Edwards, and we aren’t even half way through the draft yet. The Raiders appear dead set to find some play-making receivers come hell or high water. This has the potential to be the best Raiders’ receiving corps in the past decade, possibly two decades. (Ghost)

Sony Michel. Michel still holds value for New England as their primary ball carrier and with the lack of a rookie running back added to this team, Michel might get yet another chance to lead this backfield in carries. (Koutoulas)

You’re going to have a hard time convincing me that the biggest veteran winner thus far is anyone other than Philip Rivers. Playing behind arguably the best offensive line he’s ever had, the team added most people’s top running back, Jonathan Taylor and receiver Michael Pittman, Jr. giving Rivers a great group of weapons. The 38-year-old Rivers is on a one-year deal, but if he plays well, he could easily be back for another year or two after this deal. He’s now my official late-round quarterback target in all formats this year. (DiBari)

James Conner. The Steelers were supposedly interested in running backs entering the draft but have yet to address the position. I expect them to add depth in the late rounds, but at this point, he seems safe for the 2020 season. His sell window has re-opened. Austin Ekeler, DeVante Parker, Raheem Mostert, and Jordan Howard are winners as well. (Nammour)

6. What team/position was shaken up that surprised you?

The quarterback position in Philadelphia. Even more so than the Love selection by Green Bay, I don’t get the Jalen Hurts selection for the Eagles. This selection is bad news for both Hurts and Carson Wentz’ dynasty value. Yes, Wentz is still the long-term starter, but Hurts will be taking snaps at quarterback as early as his rookie season. (Powell)

What are the Packers doing? Seriously. They have a massive hole at wide receiver and instead draft AJ Dillon in the second to join breakout star Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, who is no slouch himself. (Hayes)

This one is easily the Detroit running back situation. Kerryon Johnson seemed to have it locked down, posting good numbers when he was healthy. The drafting of D’Andre Swift really impacts his value and seemed like a strange pick. Adding a better, yet similarly rounded player is just a headache for owners. (Tzikas)

A few stand out, Detroit grabbing D’Andre Swift early in the second round was a shocker. It’s no secret Kerryon Johnson hasn’t been able to stay on the field but with so many needs I didn’t love it. I mentioned before, I was not at all expecting the Colts to grab a running back. (Peebles)

I was not expecting the Bills to take on the draft’s better running backs in Zack Moss. Devin Singletary had appeared to take the reins well when given the chance, but Moss’ addition throws Buffalo’s running situation into flux. I doubt Singletary’s value is killed by the move, but it certainly makes a seemingly secure role for Singletary much shakier. (Gill)

There were a few that initially surprised me, but both Aaron Jones and Marlon Mack are on the final years of their deals. Green Bay has historic disdain for giving running backs a second contract, they just grabbed their guy a year early. Indy probably felt Taylor was just too good to pass up at that point in the draft. I’m going to go a little off book and go with Swift to Detroit. I felt like the Lions had so many holes that addressing the running back position this year that early in the draft was unexpected. Granted, they don’t have much in the line of productive talent at the position, but they have a lot of holes all over. (Feldman)

As much as I like the Colts picking Jonathan Taylor, I can’t say that it didn’t surprise me. As vocal as they were last season about Marlon Mack being their guy, trading up to spend a second-round pick on a high profile running back was not what I was expecting. (Hesterman)

I would have to go back to my answer to queston four, both running back positions on the Colts and Lions and Colts. Mack and Johnson still appear to be more than capable of putting up excellent production for several years to come. While Taylor and Swift are obvious upgrades, there appears to be bigger needs left unfilled after Day Two. As an extra surprise, I was floored by the Eagles selecting Jalen Hurts – the move makes very little sense unless there is an issue we don’t know about with Carson Wentz, or Philadelphia isn’t sold on him long-term, a decision that is just as baffling given the Eagles just signed him to a four-year contract extension a little less than a year ago. Even if they intend to keep Hurts as a backup, using that much draft capital on a player who will only occasionally see the field is just as puzzling. (Ghost)

Green Bay running back. The Packers drafting AJ Dillon in the second round was an eye opener. After the year Jones had, it makes you wonder what role Jones and Dillon will have in this backfield next season. (Koutoulas)

The Packers were one win away from the Super Bowl last year, and just a few pieces could get them over the hump- then they trade up for a project at quarterback on day one, and draft an early-down thumper at running back in the second round a year after Aaron Jones ran for a league-leading 16 touchdowns, and scored a league-leading 19 total touchdowns. Additionally, Jamaal Williams has been a sufficient backup when Jones has been off of the field, too. Unless they want Dillon to come in and fill the void left behind when fullback John Kuhn retired, I don’t understand what the plan is here. (DiBari)

There were a few. Green Bay was expected to add competition for Jamaal Williams last year, but only drafted Dexter Williams late and watched him make no impact at all. With both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams entering the final year of their contracts, the Packers needed to add another body, but drafting AJ Dillon in the second round was really shocking. I have no idea what they are doing. (Nammour)

ryan mcdowell