ADP Trends: Positional Value Gains by Round in Rookie Drafts

Let’s take a look at how to use ADP trends in your rookie drafts to maximize your roster value a year from now.

To do this, we will go through ADP boom, bust, and safe rates by round by position to determine the best value positions to target and when.

Boom – increased by 12 spots or more in dynasty startup ADP
Bust – decreased by 12 spots or more in dynasty startup ADP
Safe – didn’t lose value or boom

This is based on May of the draft year vs the next May. I use May as a cut-off because I consider it to be the “pure” month for ADP. It is after the NFL Draft so draft capital and landing spots have been determined. It is also before any team activities start so there aren’t any injuries or media hype yet. I also use one quarterback league ADP back to 2007.

That being said, let’s dive into the data!

Round One

Based on this, you can see that first-round quarterbacks are the safest but it should be noted that the sample is only four, so it’s highly affected by each player. Also, the last first-round QB was Andrew Luck in 2012.

The real question in the first round is always running back vs wide receiver. There are tons of people out there spinning narratives about how running backs are safer in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts but I am afraid that it’s a lot closer than they make it out to be.

From a pure value gain perspective, I would not be reaching for a running back over a wide receiver.

Tight ends in the first round are generally a bad idea but it should be noted there has only been a handful since 2014, so I am not sure there is much we can glean with such a small sample.

Conclusion

RB > WR > TE > QB

If I am on the clock in my rookie draft, I am taking the best player between running back and wide receiver. I will not take a lesser running back over a better wide receiver just because one is a running back.

However, when I am choosing within the same tier the tie-breaker goes to the running back based on first-year production and positional value. The other part of the equation is going to be covered in the round two section.

Round Two

As you can see, tight ends and quarterback rule the day from a value perspective however unless the player is truly special, I am probably passing here.

What is really interesting is that we see a substantially higher bust rate from running backs in round two compared to wide receivers. In fact, the wide receiver safe rate in round one was 62% and in round two it is 63%. That is pretty remarkable.

Conclusion

When breaking ties with players in the same tier, these are the positions I prefer in this round:

WR > TE > QB > RB

The crazy safe rate of wide receivers in the second round is one of the reasons I feel like I can punt wide receiver in round one.

Round Three

This is where I stop drafting running backs and wide receivers as their safe rates drop substantially compare to quarterback and tight end. This is exactly where you should be focused on the “onesie” positions.

Conclusion

TE > QB > WR > RB

I prefer tight ends because they hold more positional value than quarterback does and they have similar value rates. Wide receiver and running back is more or less a wasteland after their rookie year for players drafted in this range.

Round Four

In the fourth round, things are very bleak across the board but if I am drafting here I am looking for a tight end as they still have a pretty decent shot at holding their value until I can find a trade partner to take them off my hands.

Conclusion

TE > QB > WR > RB

If I am being honest, I rarely have fourth-round picks. I use them to package up and trade up for a player who I like earlier in the draft. But if I have to make a pick, I generally take the best available tight end.