The Un-Repeatables

John Hesterman

In the world of fantasy sports, one good game does not a trend make. In fantasy football, the same can be said of stellar seasonal performances. It is so easy to fall victim to the bite of recency bias and assume that it is a promise of things to come. (2010 Peyton Hillis anyone?) Sifting through some of the amazing statistics we saw during the 2019 season, there are numbers that jump off the page as being memorable, but sadly, unsustainable.

In this article, we are going to analyze some of those against some historical data and look for the obvious ones that will most likely not be repeated.

Lamar Jackson, QB BAL – 9.0% Passing Touchdown Rate

As if we have not already talked about Lamar Jackson enough, here we go again. Jackson’s 2019 season was nothing short of spectacular. No one should have been surprised by his rushing numbers. However, finishing as the overall QB1 was a bit of a surprise to many.

Hyper-efficiency was not synonymous with Jackson; at least from his rookie season. In fact, in the seven games he started, he finished the season with a 3.5% touchdown percentage in his 2018 campaign.

Fast forward to 2019 and Jackson compiled 36 passing touchdowns on 401 attempts. That is a 9% passing touchdown ratio for those keeping score at home.

So, allow me to go ahead and put it into ink. Lamar Jackson will not finish the 2020 season with that same kind of efficiency. Since 2000, five quarterbacks have eclipsed a passing touchdown percentage rate of 8.5% or above. Exactly zero of them were within one percent of that same range the following season.

In 2004, Peyton Manning finished the season with an impressive 9.9% rate. In 2005 that dropped to 6.2%. In 2007, Tom Brady finished at 8.7% and dropped to 5.0% in the next season he played. In 2011, Aaron Rodgers hung a 9.0% on the season, only to drop to 7.0% in 2012. We all remember Nick Foles’ hyper-accurate 2013 season where he had an 8.5% touchdown rate. People that drafted him highly in 2014 may also remember the paltry 4.2% rate he saddled his owners with to end the season. The most recent was none other than Patrick Mahomes, who had an 8.6% rate in 2018 followed by 5.4% in the 2019 season.

Rodgers and Russell Wilson are the only two active quarterbacks in the top ten of career touchdown percentages. Both are known for being both accurate and efficient. Their current active touchdown percentage is 6.0% respectively.

None of this is saying that Jackson will not have a successful 2020 season from a fantasy perspective. He remains a special talent and his rushing ability is a built-in cheat code for fantasy scoring. However, we have enough data to squash the idea that he will throw touchdowns on 9% of his passes moving forward.

Keep this in mind as we head into draft season for both redraft leagues and new dynasty start-ups.

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As we can see from the most recent ADP history tool, Jackson’s value has remained high following his MVP 2019 season.

Leonard Fournette, RB JAX – 100 TARGETS

Let us talk about teams going completely off-script in the 2019 season. Nick Foles lands a huge contract, presumably to right the Jaguars ship that sailed so close to Super Bowl island just a couple of short seasons ago. Enter a broken clavicle and that ship veered off course.

Gardner Minshew stepped out from obscurity and into a starting role. He handled the unexpected role with calm confidence and an Uncle Rico swagger that captivated many.

This led to a modification of the playbook. The quiet beneficiary was Leonard Fournette. Fournette’s workhorse carry-count was where it was expected to be. He averaged 17.6 carries per contest.

What was not expected was Fournette’s ridiculous uptick in targets. He finished the season as the fourth-most targeted running back, with 100 targets. To quickly apply perspective, his first two seasons he had 74 targets combined. The increase in targets did lead to more total yards, but at a significant loss in efficiency.

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Stats courtesy of pro-football-reference.com

While he finished with career-high receiving yards, he fell below his yards-per-reception and yards-per-target history. He also failed to score on a reception. To be completely honest, scoring was a big letdown of what should have been a great season for the third-year pro.

Fournette owners were simultaneously thrilled with some PPR points and disappointed with his inability to translate the extra workload into touchdowns.

Expect the offense to settle down in a few areas heading into the 2020 season. The playbook will be tailored to favor a Minshew-led offense which will return Fournette’s target share to a more stable mean. Fournette still maintains a stranglehold on workload in this offense and is expected to see some positive touchdown regression heading forward. The bottom line here is simple; the targets will go down and the rushing touchdowns should go up.

Robert Woods, WR LAR – 1.43% TOUCHDOWN RATE

Woods found himself among a strange and select group of wide receivers last season. He is one of eight receivers since 2000 to have 130 or more targets and two or fewer touchdowns.

Before anyone begins to make assumptions that the blame for that falls squarely at Woods’ feet, let’s take a deeper look into this.

Jared Goff had a career-high in pass attempts in 2019. He attempted 626 passes for 394 completions, totaling 4,638 yards. The pass attempts were tied for the most in the league and he was third in passing yards. All sounds pretty swell, right?

Goff finished with 22 passing touchdowns, ten less than the previous season; and 16 interceptions. His 3.5% passing touchdown rate was well below his 2018 and 2019 seasons. Despite the higher volume, Goff struggled in most statistical categories which trickled down to some of the skill players.

Expect positive touchdown regression for the annually underrated Woods this season. With the recent departure of Brandin Cooks, Woods’s target share should remain where it has been, with more red-zone looks.

Woods quietly finished as the WR15, with two touchdowns on the season in PPR scoring formats. His ADP is very friendly for that type of production. Since October of 2019, it has remained in a fairly steady decline.

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Teams that are needy at wide receiver should strongly consider sending out feelers to disappointed owners. Though, owners may be less likely to bite with the recent departure of Cooks.

Darren Waller, TE LV – 25% TEAM TARGET SHARE

Waller was a true waiver-wire darling in many leagues for the 2019 season. It was by far the most productive season from the fifth-year tight end. As it is often said, opportunity is king in fantasy football. Between 2015 and 2018, Waller had seen 29 total targets. In the 2019 season, he had 29 targets by the conclusion of week three.

Waller finished with 117 targets, 90 receptions, and 1,145 yards. He had five games of 100 or more receiving yards. Despite hauling in only three touchdowns, he finished as the TE3 ahead of Zach Ertz and Mark Andrews.

Waller easily led the Raiders in total targets (117), receptions (90), receiving yards (1,145) and target share with 25.28 percent. To be completely honest, there were not a slew of options for quarterback Derek Carr to look to. Tyrell Williams missed two games and only saw more than four targets twice all season. Hunter Renfrow, missed three games due to injury, but played better than expected as a rookie.

The lopsided target share was a product of lack of reliable weapons. Tyrell Williams was never meant to operate as an alpha wide receiver. The Raiders know they are thin at the position and are expected to address that condition in the upcoming draft.

They were the third-highest in the league in targets funneled to the tight end position. Per Sharpfootballstats, they finished with a 33% target share to the position; Waller accounting for 117 of those 162 total attempts. The two teams ahead of them were Baltimore (41%) and Philadelphia with 39 percent. The major underlying difference between these three teams is that both the Ravens and the Eagles utilize more than one tight end in their passing scheme. Oakland coming in at third and almost entirely leaning on Waller to do so, should be a statistical red-flag.

As we approach the 2020 season, owners or potential owners should temper expectations that Waller can repeat that target share.

john hesterman
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