DJ Moore ADP Analysis: Moore or Less?
The hype train is barreling down the tracks with a full head of steam for DJ Moore this draft season. It is tempting to go along for the ride with the seductive “all aboard” calls bellowing from fantasy football conductors throughout the industry.
We may want to watch our caboose so to speak. Warning signs are there that need to be heeded before we leave the station as a passenger.
Understandable Uproar
The Carolina Panthers‘ wideout ended 2019 as the WR16 in PPR formats at just 22 years old. The Maryland grad saw 30 targets more than the next highest receiver on the roster (Curtis Samuel) and checked in with a career-high 135 looks from the quarterback trio that attempted passes last season.
Moore averaged a very respectable 15.4 fantasy points per game last year. That was a nice bump from the 9.8 points per her registered his rookie campaign. The soon-to-be-third-year wideout has remained relatively healthy, playing in 31 of a possible 32 games.
Using the points per game app via DLF, we can see how stark the difference was year over year in comparison to some other players who finished just ahead of him last season.
The now 23-year-old receiver passes the consistency test as well, scoring at least 12.1 points or more in 12 of the 15 games played (one of the three single-digit outputs came in week 16 when Moore left early with a concussion).
This all sounds enticing and lends to the credibility of his current ADP of WR7 off the board (17.50 overall). A look at the ADP over time tool from DLF shows a steady climb in draft position, indicating that the hype is real. Borrowing a line from the infamous Alfred E. Newman of Mad Magazine, it is then fair to ask, “what, me worry?”
Carolina Quandary
Here is where the train starts to derail just a bit. There has been a ton of upheaval for the Panthers since the final whistle blew on the 2019 season. Gone are head coach Ron Rivera, offensive coordinator Norv Turner, quarterbacks Cam Newton and Kyle Allen, and a host of other players on both sides of the ball. What can be expected from the new coaching staff? The real answer is we do not know, and therein lies the quandary.
Matt Rhule, Head Coach
Rhule will be making his NFL head coaching debut when the 2020 season kicks off. This comes after having spent the prior seven seasons in the college ranks as the head man for Temple Owls (2013-2016) and the Baylor Bears (2017-2019).
There is no NFL data to help us predict what type of offense will be run by the new regime in Charlotte. What we do have is seven good years of data from the college ranks for Rhule. There is also a little data for new offensive coordinator Joe Brady available to us. The former LSU passing game guru will be discussed shortly.
The most concerning item gleaned from the data is the fact that only twice in seven years did a Matt Rhule-coached team have more passing attempts than rushing attempts. In fact, the soon to be first-year NFL head coach engineered a 36.0 to 33.7 run to pass ratio out of his offenses during his stint in the NCAA.
There are some theories out there that the defense will be sub-par for the Panthers yet again in 2020, leading to more passing attempts during garbage time. Looking closer at the data, that may not be the case. Only one of the three seasons where Rhule had a bottom-ranked scoring defense did we see the offense pass more than it ran. That was in 2017 at Baylor when the team suffered a -12.4-point scoring differential throughout the season.
Something else to factor in is how quickly the young coach turned around the defense. Perhaps the Panthers defense will be a bottom-ranked unit in 2020 but clinging to the idea that there will be garbage time points accumulated by Moore for years to come might not be worth hanging your hat on. Finally, how confident are you that garbage-time targets will go to DJ Moore and not the newly acquired Robby Anderson (covered later)?
Also, of note is the distribution of targets in the offense. The WR1 only saw 100 plus targets in three of seven seasons. These receivers were Anderson (2015) and Denzel Mims (2017, 2019). It is worth mentioning that in two of those three seasons, there were still more rushing attempts than passing attempts.
Joe Brady, Offensive Coordinator
The DJ Moore hype train officially departed the station on January 14th, 2020 with Matt Rhule’s hire of Joe Brady from LSU to be his new offensive coordinator. The allure is understandable and warranted. After all, he oversaw the passing game for a team coming off a record-breaking season that earned Joe Burrow the Heisman Trophy and two wideouts accumulate at least 120 targets. Below is a look at the gaudy numbers.
Under Tigers offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger, Brady resurrected an anemic LSU offense by incorporating the run-pass option (RPO) and spread offense concepts he learned under Sean Payton in New Orleans in 2017 and 2018. Here is where the numbers get interesting, as well as concerning, and the railroad ties start to weather a bit.
While the run/pass ratios were better than 50/50 in favor of pass attempts, it was close. The most concerning stat is the average number of passing attempts per game during his tenure in New Orleans. If the 30-year-old hot coaching commodity models his offensive game plan after Sean Payton, the fear then becomes that Moore might struggle to duplicate his 135 targets from 2019.
Continuing with the thought that Brady will somewhat tailor his offense after his former mentor, we look at the coaching history app from DLF. Payton has never been a stranger to targeting his running backs. Do not expect that to change with a stud in the backfield a la Christian McCaffrey.
Looking at the bottom-ranked Carolina defense and the point differential margin from last year, it is easy to understand why they averaged 39.6 passing attempts per game. That is a significant 6.65 attempts more per game than any offense Brady was involved with during his time in the Big Easy. Extrapolate this out over 16 games and we are now talking about a potential decrease of 106.4 passing attempts throughout the season. Scary.
Robby Anderson, WR
The other thing that is scary and further adds to the Carolina quandary was the signing of Anderson. The former New York Jets wideout inked a two-year, $20 million deal on March 24th. If you recall from earlier, Anderson was one of the two receivers to see over 100 targets in a Matt Rhule-led offense in college.
This is not to say that the Temple grad will see 100 targets in Carolina. We do, however, have to at least factor in that the duo have a familiarity with each other from their time together in Philly. One thing for certain is that Anderson is a much better WR3 than Jarius Wright and will likely command more than the 58 targets that position saw last season. The front office did not pay the free agent $10 million a year to not improve the production from the WR3 position, potentially lowering Moore’s market share.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB
Perhaps the final derailment of the hype train could be the signing of Teddy Bridgewater. The former Minnesota Vikings and Saints quarterback lacks a great history of targeting a particular wideout.
Michael Thomas saw a huge market share in the six games that Bridgewater saw the majority of snaps in 2019. The average per game numbers from 2019 were projected out over a 16-game pace and the numbers were astronomical. With the lack of a true WR2 in New Orleans, it is not surprising. There was not a receiver near the caliber of Samuel or Anderson on the Saints roster last year. Here is a look at the numbers from the revitalized signal-caller. The first two years were from his time as a starter in Minneapolis and 2019 was extrapolated out based on his per-game average last season.
We can see that the Louisville grad is anything but a gunslinger. This does not bode well for Moore. The most concerning numbers are the targets the WR1 saw his first two seasons as a starter. The wideouts he had were good, not great. Greg Jennings was on the downside of his career in 2014 and led the team in targets and Stefon Diggs led the team in targets his rookie season of 2015.
Final Answer: Less for Moore
None of this is to say that DJ Moore will not have a good or possibly great season again in 2020. Rather the argument is just being made that there might be some regression and the signs point to him seeing a decline in targets. This makes the third-year wideout a risky proposition at his current ADP.
There are safer and more practical options for you at that 17th overall pick range in startup drafts. The receiver position is as deep as it has been in recent memory. Be sure to capitalize on that.
Perhaps that pick would be better spent on a Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, or another running back in that radius for a position that contains a pretty bare cupboard. If you do go RB in the second round, you can always pivot to a Julio Jones, AJ Brown, or Kenny Golladay on your way back through to fill out your roster quite nicely to start.
To discern how that strategy may play out for you, the outstanding ADP/Ranks Grid and Probabilities tool from DLF has been added as a visual aid. A full, twenty round recap is available here, but only the first three were included for context.
Conclusion
I am a little risk-averse with my approach in dynasty formats. This feels like a steep price to pay for a player with a lot of unanswered questions surrounding him. I will likely own a few shares of Moore, but only if it is in the cards. He will not be someone I will be actively targeting (no pun intended). Thank you for reading and feel free to comment below or hit me up on Twitter (@FFJeffSmith).
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
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