A View from the 1.06: Rookie Draft Strategy
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than one week away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.
Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
1.06
The Pick: Cam Akers, RB
There are many reason dynasty players should be excited to select Florida State’s Cam Akers, especially if he is available in the middle of the first round. Akers entered college as the top-rated back in his class and joins the NFL as one of the youngest players, one of three key offensive skill players who will still be 20 years old when they are drafted, not including Jerry Jeudy, who turns 21 Friday. Akers can hurt teams as both a runner and receiver and seemingly earned a ton of respect by not giving up as the Seminoles program fell apart. Last year, Akers would’ve been the RB1 in the class.
Possible Pivots
You can’t go wrong with a top-six pick this year. If not Akers, you’ll be able to select from players like Jerry Jeudy, Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Justin Jefferson.
Trade Value
1.06, 2.06 for Deebo Samuel, Kerryon Johnson, Jonnu Smith
1.06, 2.06 for 1.02
1.06 for Dak Prescott, AJ Green
Super-Flex Options: JK Dobbins, RB
After a true breakout season for Ohio State, JK Dobbins skipped the Combine workout. That disappointing decision became even worse as workouts and pro days were canceled, leaving us without metrics for the presumed top-three back. Regardless, we saw enough this past season to realize Dobbins would be an unreal value in the middle of round one.
2.06
The Pick: Bryan Edwards, WR
I don’t advise living and dying by any one metric when analyzing incoming rookies, but when there is a true standout, it is noteworthy. That’s what we have with former South Carolina receiver Bryan Edwards, who broke out before he even turned 18 years old as a true freshman. Unfortunately, an ill-timed foot injury kept Edwards out of the Combine, though that could be good news for dynasty players. If he had the chance to show off his ideal combination of size, speed and soft hands, he likely wouldn’t be available with the 2.06 pick. In fact, if Edwards slips to day three of the NFL Draft, he could fall even further in rookie drafts as a result. Take a chance on this steady producer.
Possible Pivots
Other players potentially available in the mid-second round include Tua Tagovailoa, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Brandon Aiyuk and AJ Dillon.
Trade Value
2.06, DJ Chark for 1.07
2.06 for 3.02, 3.07
2.06, 2021 2nd for Kareem Hunt
Super-Flex Options: AJ Dillon, RB
After an impressive Combine, former Boston College back AJ Dillon was a fast riser, moving from a third-round rookie ADP up to his current mid-second range. That value is even better in super-flex leagues with as many as six quarterbacks coming off the board in the top 18 rookie picks.
3.06
The Pick: Chase Claypool, WR
We’re not exactly sure if Notre Dame’s Chase Claypool will settle at wide receiver or tight end, but it’s crucial to his dynasty value. He could be a difference-maker at the tight end position, while it is easy to see him getting lost in the mix of a deep group of wideouts. Unfortunately, we won’t have answers about this anytime soon. The hype continues to build for Claypool, who showed out at the Combine and it has been a big boost to his rookie ADP, moving from 49 overall pre-Combine to his current 3.06 spot.
Possible Pivots
Other players available in the middle of round three, according to our pre-draft rookie ADP, are Joshua Kelley, Cole Kmet, Jalen Hurts and Donovan Peoples-Jones.
Trade Value
3.06, Kaden Smith for Cameron Brate, 5.09
3.06 for Chris Herndon
3.06, Antonio Brown for Aaron Rodgers
Super-Flex Options: Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR
I’m starting to get the feeling that if Antonio Gandy-Golden had attended a power-five school instead of Liberty, we’d be talking about him as a second rounder. As it is, he’s gone a bit under the radar and barring some surprising draft capital, will be available in the third round of rookie drafts. Gandy-Golden has ideal size and is a physical receiver. Coming from a small school, AGG will be pegged as a “project” but he could actually contribute right away, which makes him a nice target in the third round.
4.06
The Pick: Brycen Hopkins, TE
As I have mentioned with some of the other top tight ends, there is no clear TE1, let alone a consensus order to the group. Purdue’s Brycen Hopkins is among the contenders but needs to show improvement in many areas. Dynasty players looking for help at the tight end position are better off selling this pick for Greg Olsen.
Possible Pivots
Other late-round targets likely available in this range are DeeJay Dallas, Van Jefferson and Quintez Cephus.
Super-Flex Options: Isaiah Hodgins, WR
Isaiah Hodgins is a big-bodied target out of Oregon State with excellent hands but below-average speed. While he was an early declare after his junior season, he is not a lock to even be drafted.
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