2020 NFL Draft Prospect – Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama

Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Tua Tagovailoa, QB from Alabama. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!

The 2017 National Championship Game featured SEC powerhouses Georgia and Alabama. The Crimson Tide went into the locker room down 13-0 at halftime and the offense was struggling with the electric Jalen Hurts at the helm. Nick Saban turned to freshman Tua Tagovailoa and he responded by leading the Tide to an overtime victory and the coveted Championship Trophy.

He was the full-time starter in 2018 and led Alabama to another title game while torching opposing defenses in the SEC. He looked poised for another huge season in 2019 and was on track to be the undisputed top overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. NFL teams were ‘Tanking for Tua’ and hoping to get the coveted first pick.

The emergence of LSU and Joe Burrow, coupled with Tagovailoa’s injuries, dropped him down the draft board and out of the top spot. The Alabama offense was just as scary but the offense in Death Valley was getting all the press and breaking records. The hip injury suffered against Mississippi State was vicious, and looked like it could derail his career. It was similar to the injury which ended Bo Jackson’s career. His rehab appears to have been successful and recent videos have surfaced of the young quarterback moving and throwing on the run.

THE STATS

Statistics from sports-reference.com

His 2018 season was one of the best statistical seasons from a college quarterback in recent history. He completed 69% of his passes and threw for 43 scores against only six interceptions. Four of those picks came in the final three games, the SEC Championship and BCS games. He was remarkably consistent and the stats were not inflated by inflated outlier games. He fed Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, and Irv Smith Jr., spreading the ball around. The Alabama attack was balanced and dangerous, one of the most high-scoring offenses in Tide history.

The 2019 season started with even more scoring and Alabama offense was destroying opponents. He completed over 70% of his passes and tossed 33 scoring strikes against only three interceptions. He was more efficient, spreading the ball around to three dominant receivers and the team was rolling toward another title game.

Tagovailoa led them to seven straight victories before leaving the Tennessee game after suffering a leg injury. He limped back onto the field versus LSU in the game of the year, throwing for 418 yards and four scores in the loss to the eventual National Champs. The next week he left the game versus Mississippi State with the hip injury and his season was over.

THE FILM

Tagovailoa is a technically-sound quarterback prospect. He is accurate, doesn’t rattle easily, and has great footwork. We have a collection of videos available at DLF and below are some clips which showcase facets of his game.

Quarterback No.1 Tua Tagovailoa is just different. pic.twitter.com/hZQVSbbyiV

— Ray G (@RayGQue) March 31, 2020

Our devy team lead, Ray Garvin, highlights a series of beautiful throws from the young quarterback. The first throw showcases the footwork – one of his biggest strengths. He evades pressure for an eternity and keeps his eyes downfield. He works through reads and threads a pass across the field, against the sideline in a small window for a touchdown to Jerry Jeudy. He senses pressure and is comfortable in the pocket. He sidesteps defenders regularly and seems at ease. He has a lethal, quick release as well – he can scramble and quickly get the ball where he needs it to be.

Tua Tagovailoa just "LOOKS LIKE A QUATABACK" (S/O @LedyardNFLDraft.) He's such a natural moving about to pocket to give himself throwing windows and avoiding rush. Doesn't always feel the pressure but when he does his plan is A1 pic.twitter.com/nLaUTw0oX2

— Dalton Miller (@DaltonBMiller) August 13, 2019

On the biggest stage, versus Clemson in the 2018 Championship game, here we again see the beautiful footwork. He senses the pressure and slides into the pocket. He quickly fires a dart downfield to the open spot away from the defenders where his receiver is the only one with a play on the ball. The processing speed of the play is similar to what he will need to succeed in the NFL. It happens rapidly and in a matter of a few seconds, he quickly steps up and delivers a catchable ball. The confidence in his play is understated, he plays with a calm swagger which lends well to his leadership ability.

https://twitter.com/QBFilmRoom/status/1244802414345105408?s=20

This is a more detailed breakdown of how he processes defenses and finds the open spot in the defense. Watch the whole clip and it details exactly what he sees. He uses his eyes to freeze a linebacker and then throws a beautifully placed ball in a tight window. Tagovailoa places it perfectly in between two of the best defenders in college football. It was away from the receiver so only he could get it and in front of another defender on a receiver behind them as well. His ball placement is uncanny and it will help him succeed at the next level.

https://twitter.com/QBFilmRoom/status/1221651131623002112?s=20

Here is another example of the quick release and then the deep touch. Tagovailoa rarely throws a ball in which a receiver has to slow down or make huge route adjustments to catch. He isn’t known for a big arm but in this clip, he hits Jeudy again and in stride for a beautiful deep touchdown. He may not have the ability of Patrick Mahomes to chuck the pigskin 60 yards on a dime but routinely hits guys in stride 40 or more yards downfield. It isn’t a strength but it is far from being a weakness.

THE MEASURABLES

Because of injury rehabilitation, Tagovailoa was unable to participate in any drills at the Combine but did get measured. He measured 6’0” tall and weighed in at 217 pounds. He had 10” hands, which put him in the 80th percentile. His arm length was only 30.5”, which was only in the eighth percentile – quite short arms.

He did have a virtual pro day on April 10th where he did not participate in any athletic measurement tests but completed a variety of throws. He moved well and didn’t seem to hold back at all, a good sign going forward. Tagovailoa rolled out and made throws on the run, seeming confident in his surgically repaired hip.

If he had tested at the Combine, I don’t believe we would have seen anything surprising. He isn’t the fleetest quarterback, not the most agile, and not the strongest. From an athletic standpoint, he likely would have been near the average in all of the tests. He moves well, but doesn’t look to run and isn’t going to overpower his way out of sacks either.

DYNASTY VALUE

He is going to be one of the first quarterbacks selected in the draft and could land in a situation where he plays right away. Hopefully he ends up in a situation in which he can sit and make sure he is fully healthy before being thrown in. Tagovailoa will likely be drafted as a franchise quarterback and lead a team for many years if he can remain healthy.

He is currently being drafted 17th overall and the second quarterback off the board in April rookie ADP conducted by DLF. In superflex rookie drafts he is going second overall on average, behind Joe Burrow. In overall dynasty drafts, his average ADP is 132 and in superflex he is going off the board around pick 43 on average.

The emergence of Burrow and the hip injury are the only reason he is not the first quarterback drafted. He has been remarkably consistent and inefficient from his first snap behind center in Tuscaloosa and through every game he has played. He was the number one quarterback before the season and is one of the purest passers I have seen.

One of the things which could hinder his ascension is he occasionally holds onto the ball too long, leading to unnecessary sacks. If he lands in a situation with a terrible offensive line, this could be a recipe for disaster. Coupled with his injury history, we may never be able to realize his full potential. Tagovailoa has also always been surrounded with an all-star college cast around him, how will he succeed on a team without high-level talent at every position?

CONCLUSION

The injury history is a concern but in a league where having a good quarterback typically means success, he is worth the risk. I would have zero hesitation drafting him where he is going if I need a long-term solution at quarterback. The upside far outweighs the risk. He is being drafted ahead of veterans such as Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Matthew Stafford. If you have a win-now team, taking a risk on Tagovailoa might not fit your team needs.

We shouldn’t even be having this discussion. Hopefully he is able to succeed with his background of injuries. He is a great prospect and he throws one of the most beautiful balls on a consistent basis. He has touch to all levels of the field and makes smart decisions with the ball. His highlights feature throws into tight windows against the sidelines, into the corner of the end zone, and in places where only his receiver can get it.

The talent surrounding him made it easy for him to succeed, but it never seemed like the talent “bailed” him out. Tagovailoa can navigate the pocket and move around the rush like a seasoned veteran. He makes smart throws and doesn’t give defenders many chances to force turnovers. He is likeable and without any character concerns. He has played against top-level competition on the biggest stages in college football. Despite any concerns anyone may have – Tua Tagovailoa is an NFL quarterback.