2020 NFL Draft Prospect – Zack Moss, RB Utah

Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Zack Moss, RB from Utah. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!

Before the NFL Scouting Combine, Zack Moss gained a lot of steam as one of the top running backs in this year’s class after the clear top tier(s) of Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, JK Dobbins, Cam Akers, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. After the Combine, some analysts have soured on the Utah runner, but the league appears to like him as a prospect. Here, we’ll take a look at how should we value him in dynasty leagues.

THE STATS

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Moss has been a very productive collegiate running back, eclipsing 1,000 rushing yards and ten touchdowns each of the past three seasons despite a late-season knee injury in 2018.

In his first full season as a starter in 2017, Moss carried the ball 214 times for 1,173 yards and ten touchdowns. What’s most notable about his production that season is his production as a pass-catcher – Moss caught 29 passes for 243 yards but didn’t find the end zone.

In 2018, he was off to a terrific start, rushing for over 1,000 yards in the first nine games of the season.

Then, Moss injured his knee in practice – and somehow, he later aggravated it getting into bed, causing him to miss the remainder of the season. There seems to be no true confirmation of what this injury actually was, but there have been rumors that Moss suffered a torn meniscus.

Regardless, after having surgery to correct the issue, he was no worse for the wear in 2019. He returned to form, scoring 17 touchdowns and compiling over 1,800 scrimmage yards, including 388 yards on 28 receptions.

Moss will go down as one of Utah’s most productive players ever. In 2019, Moss was named an All-American and the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year. Per the team’s website, Moss was the first player in Utah history with three 1,000-yard seasons (1,416 in 2019, 1,096 in 2018, 1,173 in 2017). He broke six school records in 2019 and tied for two more. Moss was prolific not only for Utah, but in the context of the entire nation. His production profile is quite strong.

THE FILM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tU24goTDhE

Moss has a very aggressive running style and runs with a very low center of gravity, using his leverage to upend flat-footed linebackers or defensive backs at the second level. This aggression also serves him well in short-yardage and goal-to-go situations, and I think this is a clear area where he wins as a player.

Moss’s contact balance is his best trait, and I’m not sure it’s close. He has a thick build, understands where contact is coming from, and bounces off defenders without decelerating. He has the ability to keep his feet beneath him through the point of contact, which allows him to continue upfield.

I pointed out some issues for Zack Moss yesterday.

What does he do well? Like Kareem Hunt, he’s a very sturdy runner, with elite balance & impressive flexibility. Often breaks tackles, even when contact is unanticipated (as seen here) pic.twitter.com/sh5UNbAHRn

— J Moyer (@JMoyerFB) April 10, 2020

A trait I look for in prospects – regardless of position – is fire and competitiveness, or a player’s want-to. Moss has it in spades. He is extremely aggressive and violent as a runner, and always looks to maximize every inch he has on the field. This fire shows up in his pass protection as well. Moss is an outstanding pass protector and loves to dole out punishment upon incoming blitzers. Unlike many collegiate running backs, he excels in this area that will guarantee him early playing time.

As a receiver, Moss has surprisingly soft hands and is a better route runner than he’s given credit for. Unfortunately, his prowess as a pass-catcher is somewhat neutralized by his lack of burst. He’s not athletic enough to be a mismatch for defenders, but his raw talent as a receiver is above average. Moss has experience lining up everywhere, including in the slot and out wide as a receiver, but was targeted sparingly on anything other than passes close to the line of scrimmage.

I’ve highlighted what he does well and how I think he can be effective at the next level, but there are some concerns with Moss.

First of all, he’s not fast. A running back doesn’t have to be fast to be good, but it definitely doesn’t hurt to be athletic. Moss has adequate lateral agility, but any time he bounces a run outside, it’s probably a sub-optimal decision. This decision-making ability ties into some vision questions I have with him. Moss almost always can get what’s blocked on inside runs, but he has an occasional tendency to try and bounce runs to gain extra yardage, and he simply lacks the juice for this to translate into chunk gains on Sundays. He is a great runner inside of structure but creativity is not a strength of his.

Moss was among the nation’s leaders in missed tackles forced. Whereas quicker and shiftier backs can often make defenders miss with elusiveness, Moss can’t – he’s just a powerful runner with terrific balance. Similar to David Montgomery a year ago, I have questions about how well this will translate.

I mentioned his aggressiveness and physicality as a positive above, and it is something I like about his game. However, Moss has been banged up a number of times, likely due to his propensity to seek out contact even when possible to evade potential tacklers. He hasn’t been the most durable, having suffered knee, ankle, and shoulder injuries at three separate times throughout his collegiate career.

Ultimately, I think Moss is a grinder who, similar to Derrick Henry, excels as a game progresses and defenders tire of having to tackle him. His skill as a pass protector and receiver should get him on the field as a rookie.

THE MEASURABLES

Let’s start with the positives. Moss has prototypical feature back size at 5’9”, 223 pounds. He benched 225 pounds 19 times, which is about average for the position. Okay, now on to the bad.

Anyone who has watched Moss on tape knows he’s not a great athlete. There isn’t really a way to sugarcoat it, either. This was confirmed by his performance at the Combine, where he ran a 4.65-second 40-yard dash (24th percentile), posted a 33-inch vertical (30th percentile), and ran the short shuttle in 4.37 seconds (24th percentile). Adam Schefter also reported that Moss supposedly tweaked his hamstring while running, which was supposed to be a convenient excuse for his poor time – but then Moss went out and performed all the position drills, which usually isn’t something injured players would do. He opted not to perform the broad jump and three-cone drills.

On the bright (?) side, per Zach Whitman and ThreeSigmaAthlete, Moss isn’t a prohibitively poor athlete. For those who care about running back BMI, the fact that he weighed in at 223 will help assuage some concerns about his athletic limitations.

Per MockDraftable, most of his comparable players weren’t good. The two most notable names are Travis Henry, who had a pretty decent career, and Terrance West, who didn’t.

DYNASTY VALUE

Zack Moss is the RB38 and the 115th player off the board in April’s dynasty startup mock drafts, which lands him in the back half of the 12th round. His value has dipped each month we’ve collected data thus far, down from an initial peak of 87.83 in February of this year.

Players being selected in his vicinity include Preston Williams, Sterling Shepard, Anthony Miller, Irv Smith Jr., Curtis Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Phillip Lindsay, Tyler Higbee, Jordan Howard, and Jamison Crowder.

Moss is currently the 14th player selected in 1QB rookie mocks in April, with a range spanning between pick 12 and pick 20 across the ten drafts. In superflex rookie mocks, Moss dips all the way to 22nd overall.

Our rookie rankers currently slot him in as the RB7, peaking at sixth at the position and bottoming out at RB12. He is the 21st-ranked player overall in 1QB formats for our team.

Moss would need a terrific landing spot or unquestioned opportunity to become a valuable fantasy asset, and we won’t know that until a few days from now.

CONCLUSION

Zack Moss has NFL talent, but his athleticism is fringe-NFL level at the position. His viability as a fantasy asset will ultimately depend on the team he lands on and the draft capital spent on him. He could end up as the lead back of a committee for his first few seasons in the league, but I don’t expect Moss to be a valuable piece on dynasty rosters long-term.

I’m a bit higher on Moss than DLF consensus at the moment. He visited with 13 teams at the Combine, which is almost double the next highest running back. Because of this and other buzz from the media, I think the NFL will value Moss higher than the average fan would guess, and day two draft capital would keep him in consideration for me. He’s currently my 2.05 and RB6 in 1QB rookie rankings. He’d be my 22nd overall player in superflex formats, with five quarterbacks going before him.

I can actually foresee a Jordan Howard-type value trajectory for Moss. It’s very possible that he earns a role and scores points early in his career, but I don’t anticipate him maintaining that value for long. If I had Moss on any of my teams, he’d be someone I’d look to pivot off of after his first season or two, particularly if he experiences a surge in dynasty value.