A View from the 1.08: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 16, 2020

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this 12-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12-team PPR, one-QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

1.08

The Pick: Jalen Reagor, WR

Having suffered through a miserable final college season, Reagor still was the dominant force in the TCU offense. Reagor still has a chance to be a first-rounder in the NFL Draft and is all but assured of that status in dynasty rookie drafts, as well. Reagor dominated the Combine despite running slower than expected and is the WR3 for many in this talented class.

Possible Pivots:

Even fantasy playoff teams will get a nice reward in this range of rookie drafts, adding a potential impact player. If not Reagor, other options include Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Justin Jefferson and Henry Ruggs.

Trade Value:

1.08, 2.05 for Allen Robinson
1.08, Hunter Renfrow for DJ Chark, 2.05
1.08, James Conner for Leonard Fournette

Super-Flex Options: Jerry Jeudy, WR

With the depth of both running backs and wide receivers and at least three first-round quarterbacks, the top tier of superflex rookie drafts may have never been deeper. Alabama’s Jeudy still has his doubters, but it would be no surprise if the elite route runner is the first receiver drafted or eventually becomes the best wideout in the class. He’s an easy pick in this part of the draft.

2.08

The Pick: Brandon Aiyuk, WR

Thanks to a breakout senior season at Arizona State, big-time playmaker Brandon Aiyuk is getting some first-round buzz. Of course, that was before his recently announced core muscle surgery. Aiyuk was off the radar after transferring from junior college in 2018 and then playing in N’Keal Harry’s shadow. If Aiyuk does land in the late first round or even early on day two, he’s unlikely to last to this part of rookie drafts.

Possible Pivots:

If Aiyuk is gone, instead consider Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Michael Pittman or Bryan Edwards. With the overall depth of this class, a talented prospect can still be found twenty picks deep.

Trade Value:

2.08, Adam Thielen for Calvin Ridley
2.08, 1.08, 2.01 for 1.03, 2021 second
2.08 for 2.11, 2021 third

Super-Flex Options: Bryan Edwards, WR

Former South Carolina receiver Edwards is considered one of the most talented receivers in the class, but a foot injury at the worst time cost him the Combine and ultimately, any chance to work out for NFL teams. This is sure to cost Edwards on draft weekend, but that could be a good thing for dynasty players.

3.08

The Pick: Cole Kmet, TE

In a weak but crowded tight end class, Notre Dame’s Cole Kmet is starting to emerge as the top option. He’s currently the first tight end off the board according to our rookie ADP but falls outside of the top 30 overall players. It is usually an acceptable strategy to ignore the tight end position in rookie drafts and that will be especially true this year, though late-round stashes are understandable.

Possible Pivots:

Other players that ADP shows could be available at the 3.08 spot include Joshua Kelley, Chase Claypool and Anthony McFarland.

Trade Value:

3.08, 3.02, 3.03 for Daniel Jones
3.08, Travis Kelce for Noah Fant, Darius Slayton, 2.02
3.08, Alshon Jeffery for 2.07

Super-Flex Options: Cole Kmet, TE

Kmet shows up again as the top tight end drafted in super-flex rookie drafts.

4.08

The Pick: Quintez Cephus, WR

At this year’s NFL Combine in Indianapolis, I wandered over to the area in which Ohio State’s Jeff Okudah, the top defensive back in the class, was being interviewed. He was asked which receiver was the most difficult to cover in his college career. His answer? Wisconsin’s Quintez Cephus. This was good news for a player who left a bad taste with his 4.73-second 40-yard dash time. Cephus profiles as a possession receiver and has a history of off-field issues, causing him to miss the 2018 season.

Possible Pivots:

Other players likely on the board late in the fourth round include Van Jefferson, Adam Trautman, Gabriel Davis, and DeeJay Dallas.

Super-Flex Options: Adam Trautman, TE

The small-school talent Trautman might have the highest ceiling of the tight end class, but there is also too much unknown. Trautman carries a big frame, making him an easy target, but he has shown little after the catch. Trautman will almost certainly be a multiple-year project.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.