A View from the 1.09: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 15, 2020

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this 12-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference-makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

1.09

The Pick: Justin Jefferson, WR

LSU’s junior receiver Justin Jefferson enjoyed a breakout year as part of one of the greatest college offenses of all time. Jefferson’s pre-draft campaign has been just as successful after he impressed at the Combine. Locked in as a projected first-round NFL Draft pick, Jefferson could climb even higher if he lands with the Eagles, as many mocks predict.

Possible Pivots:

If Jefferson climbs the board is simply isn’t available, other wide receiver pivots include Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs or Denzel Mims.

Trade Value:

1.09, 2.09 for Derrius Guice, Duke Johnson, Damien Harris
1.09, Le’Veon Bell for 1.10, 1.11
1.09, 4.09, Jaylen Samuels for Melvin Gordon

Super-Flex Options: Justin Herbert, QB

The depth of this class, and specifically the quarterback position, shines here as Oregon’s Justin Herbert falls to the 1.09. While I doubted Herbert’s value as a second-rounder in the 1QB format, he is a steal in the back-half of a super-flex draft. Expected to land with the Chargers or Dolphins, Herbert has a good chance to start as a rookie, providing immediate value.

2.09

The Pick: Michael Pittman, WR

Every year there is a player who rises throughout the pre-draft process who should’ve been rated higher all along. This year, there are actually two of them, including Denzel Mims and the 2.09 pick, Michael Pittman. After starring at USC for four years, Pittman brings a lot of quality traits to the league. His big frame of 6’4” and 223 pounds, along with his fast enough 4.52 40 in an excellent combination and he seems like a lock to be drafted in the second round. A friendly landing spot, and there are many of them, could even push Pittman close to round one conversation in dynasty rookie drafts.

Possible Pivots:

Pittman is not the only player being overlooked and undervalued at this pre-draft point. Fellow wideout Brandon Aiyuk is coming off the board in the same range and both will eventually look like steals in this later portion of round two.

Trade Value:

2.09 for 2022 first
2.09, 1.10 for David Johnson, 3.02
2.09, Christian Kirk for Kenyan Drake

Super-Flex Options: Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB

I am not quite sold on Vaughn as a pro prospect despite his ideal size and physicality. Vaughn runs tight and lacks the ability to avoid tacklers. I expect him to be an early day three draft pick, which will likely hurt his second-round ADP.

3.09

The Pick: Anthony McFarland, RB

After the strong top group of five running backs, there is a larger gap to the next tier. That leaves open the possibility of any of the next tier to move up and claim the RB6 rank. Maryland’s Anthony McFarland is one of those. While McFarland runs like an every-down back, he lacks the size of the typical starter, which could be his downfall. McFarland is most likely to end up as a part of a committee backfield.

Possible Pivots:

The late third round offers many players worthy of an investment, including Lynn Bowden, Darrynton Evans and Joshua Kelley.

Trade Value:

3.09, Darren Waller for Kenyan Drake
3.09, Darius Slayton for Zach Ertz
3.09, Josh Jacobs for Aaron Jones, 2021 first

Super-Flex Options: Anthony McFarland, RB

Increased quarterback value in the super-flex leagues didn’t impact McFarland, who ended with the same ADP in both formats.

4.09

The Pick: KJ Hill, WR

If you were to guess the all-time reception leader for Ohio State, how long would it take you to come up with KJ Hill? Yeah, me too. Hill played out of the slot and was a reliable target throughout his time with the Buckeyes but fails to stand out in any specific area.

Possible Pivots:

Other players available in this range of the fourth round include Van Jefferson, Quintez Cephus, and Adam Trautman.

Super-Flex Options: Quintez Cephus, WR

Cephus disappointed with a 4.73-second 40-yard dash at the Combine, but speed was never part of his game, so it shouldn’t be a surprise. Cephus does have some off-field issues in his past and with presumed late-round draft capital, he’ll need a nice landing spot to maintain his limited value.

Author
Recent Posts

Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.