2020 NFL Draft Prospect – Justin Jefferson, WR LSU

Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Justin Jefferson, WR from LSU. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!

Justin Jefferson played on the most productive and efficient offense in NCAA history in 2019. He played alongside a player who many have said would have been the WR1 in the 2020 class if he were eligible to declare; a Heisman-winning quarterback who will likely be the top selection in the upcoming NFL Draft, and a running back who accumulated over 1,800 scrimmage yards.

With all that being said, all Jefferson did in 2019 was smash the competition and change his mid-round projection into a likely first-round draft pick. Let’s take a look at my WR4 in this class.

The Stats

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Jefferson came into LSU as an under-recruited wiry-framed wide receiver who had little to no power five offers out of high school. He was the 308th-ranked receiver in his class and the 2,164th-ranked overall recruit. Safe to say there weren’t many big named programs who wanted Jefferson. Truth be told, had it not been for the family history at LSU, he may not have had a shot with the Tigers. Both of his brothers played and started at LSU (Jordan played quarterback and Rickey was a defensive back).

He didn’t get much playing time as a true freshman as you can see, he barely registered any counting stats. However, he worked and came back as a sophomore and quietly put together a very solid season that saw him command a 24% market share of the team’s receptions, 30% market share of the yards, finishing with a 30% dominator rating at age 19.

2019 is where the rocket ship really took off for Jefferson. His 111 receptions set an LSU single-season record and placed him 36th all-time in NCAA history in single-season receptions. He still commanded a 25% market share of the receiving yards while competing with targets from a 1,700-plus yard receiver across from him.

The Film

https://youtu.be/j9TODAuWRzw

The first word that comes to mind when you turn on Jefferson’s tape is smooth. He’s a very fluid athlete who has played both outside (sophomore season) and in the slot (his junior season). One of the more impressive subtle aspects of his game is just how good he is navigating traffic when running crossing routes. What you don’t want to see is the receiver get jammed up or running into his own man on these routes; it’s a feel thing and Jefferson is good at it. There are a couple of clips below that display a few of those positive qualities in Jefferson’s game.

He can still grow into some added muscle and of course, as most young wide receivers, he’s going to have to improve in his run blocking but there’s little to dislike in Jefferson’s overall game.

You like Route Running?

You like WRs that faced SEC competition?

You like SO & JR season production?

Why draft Jerry Jeudy with a top-3 pick when you can get Justin Jefferson late 2nd in your rookie drafts. He’s the discount version of Jerry Jeudy. pic.twitter.com/wQNNg6wjOM

— Ray G (@RayGQue) December 8, 2019

He’s also very physical after the catch. He’s not quite the yards-after-catch monster that CeeDee Lamb is, but Jefferson does a very good job creating for himself after the ball is in his hands and with his 4.4. speed has the explosiveness to pull away from defenders in the open field.

Justin Jefferson CAN’T BE STOPPED

3 TD in the first half 💪 #CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/3kcPDUtrh4

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 28, 2019

He’s got unbelievable body control and demonstrates his natural ability to locate and adjust to balls mid-flight. You’ll see in the above clip, the defender doesn’t have bad position on the play, but Jefferson’s knack to locate the ball and adjust is top-notch and part of the reason why he’s going to be a coveted asset in the coming days.

JEFFERSON DROPPED HIM 😱 pic.twitter.com/KepgoRVzju

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 14, 2020

Another example of him doing damage after the catch. The word I keep using is smooth because that’s the type of athlete he is.

The Measurables

There were a lot of questions surrounding Jefferson despite his dominant 2019 season. Listed at 6’1” 192 pounds, there were quite a few people concerned with his size. The biggest question was surrounding his speed. In high school, Jefferson had a verified 40-yard dash time of 4.88 seconds. Yes, 4.88 is not a time you’d associate with a top collegiate wide receiver or a potential first-round NFL Draft pick.

Jefferson put all those concerns to bed in Indianapolis. He checked in a full ten pounds heavier than his listed playing weight at 202 lbs which had to be considered a big win for him, but his excellent showing didn’t stop there. He had an explosive vertical jump of 37.5” and then took to the field and blazed a 4.43 40-time, tied for the 15th-fastest time of any player at the Combine and eighth-fastest receiver. He was smooth and fluid in the receiving drills and looked like one of the best in the gauntlet drill.

I’ve seen comparisons to Greg Jennings, DeVante Parker, and on the highest end Reggie Wayne.

Dynasty Value

According to DLF’s April 2020 Rookie ADP, Jefferson currently sits as the fourth-rated rookie wide receiver in single-quarterback leagues and the ninth overall player. Jefferson’s current startup ADP is 83rd overall and is being valued as the 40th-overall wide receiver in dynasty.

Conclusion

Jefferson is one of the safest wide receivers in the 2020 class. His ability to play inside and outside also allows for offensive flexibility for whatever team he eventually lands on. I don’t believe that Jefferson’s success was all attributed to LSU’s offense. He was productive as a sophomore and flourished despite playing opposite the nation’s top receiver in 2019.

From a dynasty rookie draft perspective, Jefferson should be a lock to go inside the top 12 and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him selected as the third receiver off the board after Lamb and Jerry Jeudy. My NFL comparison for Jefferson is Tyler Boyd. His play style really reminds me of him and the way Boyd is used would be a fantastic outlook for Jefferson. When drafting Jefferson you’re getting a rock-solid wide WR2 who could give you top-12 weekly finishes. The upside is there, the floor is there. Draft Justin Jefferson with absolute confidence in your rookie drafts.