A View from the 1.11: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 12, 2020

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than two weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

1.11

The Pick: Denzel Mims, WR

After a solid but unspectacular career for Baylor, Denzel Mims has enjoyed perhaps the best pre-draft off-season of any player in this draft class. He stole the show at the Senior Bowl and then backed that up with an impressive Combine performance. Mims is now considered a borderline first-rounder in both the NFL and dynasty rookie drafts.

Possible Pivots

With a large gap after the second tier of rookie running backs, this later part of the first round will be all about the receivers. If Mims is not the pick, it could be Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins or Jalen Reagor.

Trade Value

1.11, Miles Sanders, 2.05 for Ezekiel Elliott
1.11 for 2021 1^st, 2021 2^nd, 2021 3^rd
1.11, 2021 2^nd for 1.07

Super-Flex Options: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB

The presumed selection of top quarterbacks like Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa push some serious talent down the board, including LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The breakout back sits atop the running back ranks of a few industry folks and if the NFL likes him that much, he’ll be a major value late in the first round.

2.11

The Pick: Antonio Gibson, WR

At Memphis, the versatile Antonio Gibson played sparingly but scored often, finding the end zone 14 times on just 77 career touches. With limited work, Gibson is all about upside but from a dynasty perspective and in the NFL. He spent much of his time in the slot but was listed as a running back. There is still some confusion on how he will be listed as a pro but he can make an impact regardless. He’s more likely to be a project who needs some time so don’t give up on Gibson too soon.

Possible Pivots

Just as is the case in the first round, the end of the second round is littered with wideout prospects, Along with Gibson, other options include KJ Hamler, Michael Pittman and Antonio Gandy-Golden.

Trade Value

2.11 for Alshon Jeffery
2.11, 2.10 for 2.05
2.11, Dalvin Cook for Alvin Kamara, Jace Sternberger

Super-Flex Options: Brandon Aiyuk, WR

A few months ago, you might not have even heard of Brandon Aiyuk, the electric playmaker from Arizona State. Now, some are saying he might be a better prospect than his former teammate N’Keal Harry. Aiyuk is another player that the NFL, at least according to most mock drafts, likes better than dynasty players. If he earns that day one draft capital that some are projecting, Aiyuk will skyrocket in value.

3.11

The Pick: Albert Okwuegbunam, TE

After a somewhat disappointing final season in the terrible Missouri offense, the jury was out on tight end Albert Okwuegbunam, often called Albert O for obvious reasons. Okwuegbunam wowed at the Combine though and is now in the running to be the top tight end drafted. His 40 time of 4.49 was especially impressive given he measured in at 6’5” and 258 pounds. Ultimately, landing spot will be the determining factor for the tight end class.

Possible Pivots

One of my personal favorites, Kentucky receiver Lynn Bowden, is a possibility at this pick, according to pre-draft ADP data. Other targets are Darrynton Evans and Jordan Love.

Trade Value

3.11, 3.02 for 2.08
3.11, Hakeem Butler, 2021 3^rd for Antonio Brown
3.11, 4.05 for 3.07

Super-Flex Options: Jake Fromm, QB

It is rare to see a quarterback prospect fall to the late third round in the super-flex format, but that goes to show how concerned dynasty players are about Georgia star Jake Fromm. While others at his position are generating buzz, all has been quiet on the Fromm front. With expected day two capital at best, the outlook is not strong for the former top recruit.

4.11

The Pick: Lamical Perine, RB

After a long and successful career at Florida, Lamical Perine makes the leap but the upside seems limited for the powerful back who fails to stand out in any one area. At a bulky 216 pounds, Perine could turn into a goal line option, as he had some success in that area in college, but it is difficult to see an every-down back role in his NFL future.

Possible Pivots

It is difficult to get excited about any player in this late fourth-round area, at least prior to knowing landing spots. With that said, receivers Quintez Cephus and Gabriel Davis are better dart throws than Perine.

Super-Flex Options: Van Jefferson, WR

Former Mississippi and Florida receiver Van Jefferson was building some buzz entering the NFL Combine before it was announced that he’d suffered a foot injury that kept him from participating. With no medical checks since then, Jefferson, and others dealing with injuries, are in danger of sliding down draft boards.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.