Trading Up and Down in Rookie Drafts: How and Why
With the NFL Draft around the corner, dynasty drafts won’t be far behind – even if the NFL season gets off to a late start.
For many dynasty owners, the rookie draft is the highlight of the year. How do you handle your rookie drafts? Some owners never trade rookie picks and stay put with the picks they have. Other owners move picks for players year after year, while others routinely move veterans and stockpile rookie picks. Do you trade up for higher ranked players or trade down in an attempt to volume your way into a successful rookie draft? No one way is wrong. If you find something that works for you, and you enjoy it, go for it.
Trading Up
In rookie drafts, the ADP at the top of the class is oftentimes solidified well before the rookie draft rolls around. If you want a young stud, you’re going to have to make a move to get yourself additional early picks. Whether that means moving picks from future years or a combination of later picks and players, you’re going to have to find a way to move up if you’re targeting a top player.
For example, back in 2018, I loved Nick Chubb and didn’t have the draft capital to acquire him. At that time, this particular league was a 64-team, superflex, IDP league with four copies of each player. With three copies of Chubb already gone, I was able to move up to pick 1.23 in exchange for 1.49 with Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman to obtain the last copy. In hindsight, that is a win, but at the time, Foreman was an up-and-coming prospect, and Miller was a known commodity as a solid perennial RB2.
Take a look at DLF’s most recent ADP data, and see where your favorite rookies are being taken in mock drafts. If you like Cam Akers and have pick 1.08, you’re going to have to find a way to move up because he has only fallen to pick eight twice in 30 mock drafts. Every league is different, but keep an eye on ADP and trends within your league. If you need to pounce on a player, you covet, make the move. DLF’s rookie draft app can show you the probability of a particular player in a given round and can give you an advantage over your league-mates.
Why Trade Up?
If you’re already sitting on a competitive, championship-caliber roster, trading up might be the right move for your team. If you’re one player away from potentially having a league-winning lineup, it is in your best interest to try to grab a CeeDee Lamb or Jonathan Taylor early and hope they have a breakout rookie campaign. A stud rookie who ends their freshman season with a top-24 finish or better may be enough to push your team to the top.
Trading Down
When a player comes along who I must have on my teams, I’ll gladly do my best to move up to get them. However, they are few and far between, and I am a perpetual trade-down guy. Rookie hit rates are notoriously low in the NFL – and they have millions of dollars on the line. Dynasty owners are no different, minus the money. Knowing how often rookies miss or flat out bust, I prefer to accumulate as many picks as possible.
Rookie picks are dart throws. As such, I want as many darts as possible. In the same league I mentioned earlier, the league expanded to 80 teams with five copies of each player last year. I entered the draft with only two picks; 1.66 and 6.66. I was able to trade down repeatedly and ended up with seven total picks and two picks in 2020. You’re going to miss out on the very top of the class doing this, but I was able to come away with Devin Singletary, Darius Slayton, and Foster Moreau, among others, while Parris Campbell went at 1.66. Not too bad considering what I had coming into the draft.
In another league, in 2018, I had pick 1.12. I’m a fan of being open and honest with my league-mates, and when my pick was on the clock, I let everyone know the pick was available. Two teams were interested, and I let each team know what the other was offering for the pick. That resulted in a bidding war between the two sides. I ended up getting three picks back and swapped a 2019 third for a 2019 second. As long as you’re upfront and honest, teams will happily compete with one another in an attempt to get a pick – and player – they want.
Why Trade Down?
There are two reasons to trade down. The first, if your team is in a rebuild or just isn’t competitive, it’s unlikely that a single, early-drafted rookie will make your team better by themselves. Moving back in the draft a bit and grabbing several rookies gives you better odds of hitting on one (or more) of them and can turn your team around quickly.
The second reason – and this is a little different – is if you have a competitive team that looks to be competing for championships for another season or two, trading back, or out of the current draft entirely, can be beneficial. If you have a relatively young team that has easily gotten into the playoffs in the last few years, moving out of a draft entirely for multiple picks a year or two down the road will probably benefit your team long-term.
This Season
Going back to my “throw as many darts as possible” strategy, in a draft where the talent is top-heavy, I’m happier than usual to move back and get my hands on several players while early pick prices are elevated. Would you trade 1.08 for 2.06 and 2.07? Based on ADP, that’s Jalen Reagor for Bryan Edwards and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. I like Reagor, but I like the odds of either Edwards or Vaughn (or both) hitting versus just Reagor.
I’m not going to hold it against anyone who goes the opposite direction, though. If 1.01 was available and could be had for 1.07, 2.01, and 2.02, I’ll gladly take Jonathan Taylor over Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Laviska Shenault, and Zack Moss (based on ADP). At the end of the day, this is supposed to be fun- get your guys. The DLF trade finder can show you what the market price is for the 1.01. Whether you trade up or trade down or don’t trade at all, the important thing is that you come out of your rookie draft with players you like and want on your dynasty team.
Dynasty owners wait all off-season for their rookie drafts following the NFL draft. The excitement of what’s new is always fun, and this year more than most, dynasty owners will need something to hold their attention. Once landing spots are locked in after the NFL draft, get your rankings in order and get prepared for your rookie draft. Adequately planning for your rookie draft is highly underrated. If you’re just slightly more prepared for rookie drafts than others in your league, you can gain a massive advantage over your competition both short and long term.
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