2020 NFL Draft Prospect – JK Dobbins, RB Ohio State

Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2020 NFL Draft Prospect JK Dobbins, RB from Ohio State. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!

JK Dobbins gained a lot of steam through the 2019 season as a top running back in this class, but he’s been out of sight, out of mind since the College Football Playoff came to a close. His decision to opt out of the testing drills at the NFL Scouting Combine has seemed to lower his stock in terms of dynasty value, but will it hurt him in the long run? We’ll dive into his game and evaluate what his potential could look like.

THE STATS

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

When looking at Dobbins’ production, a few things immediately stand out. First of all, he crested 1,000 rushing yards and 20 receptions in each of his three seasons, which is terrific. He had an outstanding freshman season, averaging 7.2 yards per carry and totaling over 1,500 scrimmage yards. Then, considered one of the top backs in the country entering 2018, he had a really disappointing sophomore campaign, splitting carries with Mike Weber and not displaying the efficiency he showed in his first season.

2019 was a different story, with Dobbins regaining his terrific form and showing out as one of the best runners in the nation. He carried the ball 301 times for over 2,000 yards and 21 touchdowns, and once again added 20+ receptions. He also faced one of the toughest schedules of opposing run defenses of any back in the country, and he shredded it:

JK Dobbins faced a top-25 run defense in over half his games last season, the results:

18-174-1 vs Clemson
33-172-1 vs Wisconsin
31-211-4 vs Michigan
36-157-2 vs Penn St
20-163-2 vs Wisconsin
18-121-1 vs Northwestern
24-172-1 vs Michigan St
17-141-2 vs Cincinnati

— Corey March (@corey_march1) March 30, 2020

Per Sports Info Solutions, Dobbins averaged 6.5 yards per carry against those defenses. Every other running back in the country averaged just 3.0 yards per carry against those seven teams.

Dobbins broke out in his true freshman season at the age of 18 (18.7), which is terrific. Moreover, he surpassed a 15% dominator rating threshold during his collegiate career by a significant margin (28.2%). He’s displayed prowess as a receiver, broke out early, and showed sustained production throughout his career. His profile is terrific.

Here are some more incredible statistics:

• First Ohio State running back in history to notch 2,000 rushing yards in a single season.
• Three consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons, matching Archie Griffin as the only Buckeye with three such seasons. Dobbins was the only player to do it in his first three seasons.
• Set an Ohio State freshman record by rushing for 1,403 yards and had the second-highest yards-per-carry average in school history (7.2) that season.
• Rushed for 4,983 yards and 72 touchdowns over his final two seasons in high school.

THE FILM

Dobbins does nearly everything well but doesn’t have any one particular trait that stands out as truly elite. His best asset is his vision. Dobbins played behind one of the nation’s best offensive lines, but he consistently maximized his lanes and created for himself. Dobbins has great football IQ and processes information quickly, a critical skill for running backs. Because of this, he’s quite patient and adept at sensing holes before they develop, then attacking them violently when they open. He also has experience running behind multiple different blocking schemes, which adds to his versatility.

J.K. Dobbins' nimbleness and ability to convert his burst/speed into power is something else.

Dobbins' 5.04 yards created per attempt is best among the consensus top-5 RBs:
2) Taylor – 4.82
3) Swift – 4.73
4) CEH – 4.50
5) Akers – 4.37 pic.twitter.com/54TzYvTHt3

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) April 3, 2020

His contact balance is also quite good. Dobbins powers through arm tackles all the time and finishes his runs with power. He’s also quite agile in the open field, has very quick feet, and utilizes lateral jump cuts and head fakes to evade would-be tacklers at the second and third levels of the field. Despite this agility in open space, he doesn’t possess much wiggle when running through holes near the line of scrimmage, which is something a player like Jonathan Taylor is exceptional at.

This might be the filthiest move of the college season. Good lord, Dobbins. pic.twitter.com/UsZch9Qwib

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) December 20, 2019

Dobbins is a versatile player and a plus athlete, which are both positives. He has been a productive pass catcher throughout his collegiate career, and he should continue to be used in this manner at the next level. Dobbins is quite comfortable as a hands catcher. Most of his receptions came on plays where he was an outlet or a check-down option, which isn’t necessarily a negative, but it’s important to note that his route running will need refinement if he is to be split out wide as a receiver.

There isn’t much Dobbins does poorly. One of my main concerns with his running style, though, is how often he seems to seek out contact. He loves to finish his runs and fall forward for extra yards – which is a good thing – but he sometimes tries to run through players instead of trying to make them miss, which is not as good of a thing. This was generally effective for him in college, but I worry about how this will translate. It also greatly increases his risk of getting injured, and it’s avoidable.

The other area of his game that could use some improvement is his pass protection. Dobbins understands the nuances of the technique when blocking – it’s just that his execution is inconsistent. He is usually in the right place and can identify his assignments prior to contact, but he doesn’t always willingly engage. Pass protection issues can sometimes keep players from staying on the field at all times, and while Dobbins is far from bad enough in this area for it to be a major worry, some improvement here would make him a tremendous all-around player. I have no concerns about his ability to progress in this area.

THE MEASURABLES

Ohio State listed Dobbins at 217 pounds, but he weighed in lighter than expected at the Combine at just 209 pounds, which was very surprising. Most people assumed he dropped weight to run better than he would have otherwise, but he then opted not to run, which was even more surprising. With pro days canceled, we’re left without athletic testing for Dobbins. However, Recruiting Analytics measured Dobbins with a max speed of 21.3 miles per hour, as seen below.

JK Dobbins hit a max speed of 21.3 MPH during his true freshman season. While I’m disappointed we didn’t see him display his athleticism at the combine make no mistake about it he’s got JUICE!

Thanks to @RecruitAlytics1 we are building a library for some GOOD stuff @DLFootball pic.twitter.com/QJh5TfoD3S

— Ray G (@RayGQue) March 8, 2020

All we have to go off of are his high school testing numbers at The Opening and his Ohio State testing results. His SPARQ rating of 146.76 coming out of high school made him the most athletic running back in the country in 2017. Dobbins ran the 40-yard dash in 4.44 seconds, the 20-yard shuttle in 4.09 seconds, posted an absurd 43.1-inch vertical jump and boasted one of the best power throws in the class.

J.K. Dobbins with a 4.32 40 time as recorded on the Iron Buckeye Excellence leaderboard.

Though team-reported times are typically “friendly”, a time of 4.39 or below is in play at the NFL Combine. pic.twitter.com/r7EeC82u6u

— Curtis Patrick (@CPatrickNFL) January 23, 2020

Dobbins also ran a 4.32 40 during Ohio State testing. As Curtis Patrick mentions in his tweet above, team-reported times are often friendly. Even adjusting and adding between .1 to .15 seconds to his 4.32 time puts him in the 4.42-4.47 range, which is very strong and aligns with his testing from high school.

Even without athletic testing, some of his comparable players are interesting. Per MockDraftable, some of his top comparisons include Duke Johnson, Devonta Freeman, and DeAngelo Williams.

DYNASTY VALUE

His stock skyrocketed this past season, and he’s now an early first-round selection in rookie drafts.

In April’s rookie drafts, Dobbins is the 1.04, behind Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, and CeeDee Lamb. He’s the 1.06 in superflex rookie drafts, behind those same players and the top two quarterbacks, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa.

Our rookie rankers currently slot him in as the fifth rookie overall (1QB format), but he’s ranked no higher than fourth and no lower than fifth for any ranker. He is the rookie RB3 in DLF’s rankings.

Looking at some rookies in April dynasty startup ADP…

2.04- J Taylor
3.07- D Swift
4.02- JK Dobbins
4.03- C Lamb
4.08- J Jeudy
4.09- C Akers
5.05- C Edwards-Helaire

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) April 3, 2020

Dobbins is currently the 38th player off the board in April’s startup drafts, a six-spot slide from March drafts. This places him firmly at the beginning of the fourth round. We don’t have full April startup ADP on the site yet, but Dobbins was the RB15 a month ago and will probably remain in that ballpark now. Depending on landing spot, he could push for top-ten value right away with room to grow into an elite building block as the backs currently at the top of rankings begin to age past their primes.

Conclusion

JK Dobbins does everything well, should see very strong draft capital, and has a terrific production profile. He’s a great prospect, even if recency bias is dropping him down rookie draft boards in our eyes because we didn’t get to see him perform at the Combine.

He’s currently my 1.04 and RB3 in 1QB rookie rankings, and I’d have him at 1.06 in superflex leagues. In 2QB leagues, I’d vault Justin Herbert above him as well due to the scarcity of the quarterback position.

Dobbins is a rock-solid investment, and if the players currently ranked above him land in suboptimal spots, Dobbins could rise. He showed the ability to be a bellcow in college, and first-round or early second-round draft capital should ensure that he earns a workhorse role in the NFL as well.