2020 NFL Draft Prospect – Justin Herbert, QB Oregon

Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Justin Herbert, QB from Oregon. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!

The 2020 rookie class has long been touted as exceptional. The quarterback group features two talents locked into the top two picks in rookie superflex drafts, along with a second tier of players possessing attractive upside. Justin Herbert is squarely in the second tier. His college production and athleticism suggest he can find success in the NFL.

THE STATS

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Herbert was a three-star prospect and top 30 quarterback recruit in the 2016 recruiting class. He signed with the in-state Oregon Ducks, the highest-profile school to extend a scholarship offer. He made an impact as a freshman, playing in eight games and throwing for nearly 2,000 yards, before starting 27 games his final two years. He boasts a career touchdown to interception ratio of 4.1 to 1.

His statistical metrics support his case as a quality prospect. His career quarterback rating and yards per attempt are both in the top 40 percent of NFL quarterback prospects, and his 99th-percentile breakout age of 18.5 years is elite.

THE FILM

The film gives mixed signals regarding Herbert’s potential as a long term fantasy option. A few things are readily apparent. First, Herbert is athletic, especially for someone listed as 6’6” and 236 pounds. Oregon’s coaches routinely move him out of the pocket to utilize his mobility. He rolls out to the right and left and even displays some burst when he decides to move upfield.

Second, we see a lot of throws behind the line of scrimmage. This leads to the question of whether a career completion percentage of 64.0% is adequate, especially when we see throws off the mark farther downfield.

However, we should not dismiss Herbert’s NFL and dynasty potential. Some young, athletic quarterbacks who were similarly questioned are now succeeding, as we discuss in the next section.

Additional videos can be found on Herbert’s DLF videos player page.

MEASURABLES

Herbert performed well at the NFL Scouting Combine. His overall athletic measurables put him in the top 22 percent of NFL quarterback prospects. His 4.68-second 40-yard dash is an 84th-percentile result on a size-adjusted basis.

His Mock Draftable profile suggests size, speed and explosion are his top physical attributes given his height, weight, broad jump and vertical jump testing.

His player comparisons include Josh Allen, Blaine Gabbert, Andrew Luck and Daniel Jones. It is an athletic peer group that includes a top dynasty asset along with some young athletic prospects. Allen and Jones have already quieted skeptics and become legitimate fantasy assets.

Overall, Herbert’s measurables reinforce the idea he has the tools to succeed in the NFL and suggest he could even be one of the better athletes at his position.

DYNASTY VALUE

According to DLF’s April 2020 Rookie ADP, Herbert currently sits as the rookie 2.10 with an ADP of 22 in one quarterback leagues. In DLF’s Superflex Rookie ADP, he sits at 1.09 as the first quarterback selected after Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa. If you look at March startup ADP, he is the QB21 with an ADP of 191. This is around quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo, Drew Brees, Drew Lock and Jalen Hurts.

He sits at 27 in the DLF staff rookie rankings between Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Hunter Bryant and implying an early third-round rookie pick value lower than ADP.

The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer, using an algorithm that determines values based on actual MFL trades, ADP data and DLF rankings, places Herbert’s value around the rookie 4.04 pick in one-quarterback leagues, suggesting actual MFL trades are significantly decreasing his value relative to the Trade Analyzer’s other inputs. This suggests he may be much cheaper in real leagues relative to rankings and ADP. However, in superflex and start two-quarterback leagues, the Trade Analyzer puts his value around the rookie 1.09 pick, right in line with his DLF rankings and ADP.

CONCLUSION

Justin Herbert has been on the devy and dynasty radar since a junior season in which he threw for 3,151 yards and 29 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. However, a low career completion percentage sends mixed signals. His profile includes questionable accuracy yet intriguing production metrics including breakout age and efficiency as measured by yards per attempt. His size and athleticism put him in a peer group including Josh Allen and Daniel Jones, other athletic youngsters whose accuracy was questioned before they proved themselves as legitimate fantasy assets. Herbert could offer good value in rookie drafts as the dynasty community remains down on him.