The DLF Mailbag

Dwight Peebles

Welcome to the DLF mailbag; the article series that answers *your* questions in long-form. It can be difficult to give a detailed response to your questions on twitter so this series is designed to do just that. Each week we’ll do a deep-dive on the questions you have been rolling around in your dynasty mind.

If you have something you’d like discussed in this format, please send me a message on twitter @FFPeeblesChamp and include #AskDLF in your tweet. Let’s get into it!

@Chandler_Gray asks…

I have Nick Chubb and Melvin Gordon – do you have a floor/ceiling for each of them?

The ceiling for Chubb is dictated by the role the Cleveland Browns give Kareem Hunt. Chubb’s rushing numbers continued as Hunt became involved in the offense but his number of passes caught decreased to almost nothing. 27 of his 36 receptions were in the weeks before Hunt returned from suspension.

His floor will always be safe. The Browns lean on Chubb for their rushing production and he is among the best in the league rushing the ball. He rushed for 1,490 yards last season, second-most in the NFL. After Hunt joined the backfield, Chubb still eclipsed 100 yards rushing in three games and was the lead back. He still has a safe floor but to expect him to rush for the same amount is ambitious. A number closer to 1,200 yards is probably more realistic.

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Predicting what Gordon will do is trickier. It was the most puzzling free-agent addition amongst the running backs. Phillip Lindsay has been a good three-down back, eclipsing 1,000 yards rushing and catching 35 passes each of the past two seasons. The signing eliminates the value of Royce Freeman as well.

The ceiling for Gordon would be good if the Broncos make him the feature back and relegate Lindsay to a complementary role. In this case, a return to form could be possible in which he flirts with 1,000 yards rushing and also catches 50 passes. He turns 27 in a few weeks and still has some juice in his game. He didn’t look like the player he was before after his return last season though.

The floor, and more likely scenario in my opinion, is the Broncos give each back a nearly 50/50 split and each back is capped by the other. Gordon could still rush for around 600 yards and catch 25 passes, still finding the end zone a handful of times as well. He could be a viable RB3 option for our fantasy teams and have a few big games. But the floor is not what people will be paying for him right now.

@CommishMaGriff asks…

Washington brought in JD McKissic and Peyton Barber as well as re-signing Adrian Peterson. What does this mean for Derrius Guice in the backfield?

Talk about a crowded backfield! The signings are good depth signings, McKissic has been a good pass-catching option and Barber has been a solid two-down rushing back. Both would have clearly-defined roles going forward if called on. And Peterson continues to defy Father Time, rushing for 898 yards and five scores while also catching 17 passes for 142 yards at the age of 34.

All of this is insurance for Guice, who looked phenomenal when he finally saw the field in 2019. He played in five games and rushed for 245 yards on only 45 carries. He looked explosive and strong. But it was short-lived as he suffered an injury in week 14. After missing his entire rookie season and then finally appearing to be back in week 11 of 2019, the Redskins have to be frustrated.

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Guice is only 23 entering his third league in the year but he will not shake the injury-prone designation if he doesn’t break it soon. Peterson doesn’t have much time left and the backs signed will not be a threat to his role long term either. Guice is still the man for the time being but the Redskins are wise to be looking for options behind him, and possibly after him.

@nshosho36 asks…

What is left for the veteran backs like Devonta Freeman and Carlos Hyde?

Both backs are likely to stay on the market until after the draft. Most teams looking to add backs will likely turn to the draft first. With this said, both backs will likely sign a one or two-year prove-it type of deal and still have value.

Freeman just turned 28 but looked pedestrian in 2019 after missing nearly all of 2018 to an injury. He was the full-time starter for four of his six seasons in Atlanta. He thrived at times in the zone-blocking scheme the Falcons employed. When Tevin Coleman was there and Freeman wasn’t leaned on 100%, he was far more effective. He could still find a home as a backup who could shoulder a heavier load if needed. A team like the Colts make sense without a three-down back behind Marlon Mack. The Jets could be an interesting spot as well, they have little behind Le’Veon Bell and have the cap space to pay for the veteran.

Hyde put together one of the quietest 1,000-yard seasons in recent history as the lead back for the Texans in 2019. They quietly ushered him out the door, trading for David Johnson, and Hyde remains on the free-agent market. He turns 30 in September and played with the grit he has displayed throughout his career. I like the fit for him in Los Angeles with the Chargers and complementing Austin Ekeler, giving them a powerful back to absorb the tough yards. If the Bills choose to not draft a back to complement Devin Singletary, I believe Hyde would be an outstanding fit there as well.

@nickjosephson asks…

What is holding up a team from signing XFL receiving star Cam Phillips?

Honestly, I feel like the uncertainty of the league and the way everything was shut down is the biggest reason. He was being monitored for a knee injury when the season was shut down, so medicals could be a reason. The upcoming draft is obviously a hindrance as well, the draft is fairly deep with receiving talent on the talent level of Phillips or better.

Despite all of this, he will get a contract and a camp invite somewhere and should stick in the NFL. He was one of the most dominant players in the shortened XFL season, catching nine touchdown passes in five games. He will be on an NFL roster next season.

@adawg6100 asks…

How do we see the remaining quarterbacks who can be traded or signed end up? Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, and Andy Dalton in particular.

This could be an article in itself, and we may not know answers for a while. Newton is being held back by teams not able to do full physicals on players. Someone is going to take the chance on the former league MVP. The New England Patriots are the sexy pick and one you hear over and over, but I don’t see it happening. Newton is going to want more money than they can likely give. He is going to want a chance to start, which the Pats do have going for them. The Chargers make a lot of sense and have the money to make it happen. The team is saying they are content with Tyrod Taylor at the helm though.They are also projected to take a quarterback in the draft. A dark horse, if the team is not sold on Gardner Minshew, is the Jaguars as they have cap room and could make a change as well.

Winston is a far trickier sell and nearly impossible to predict. I could see him remaining unsigned until very close to the start of the league year. The history of off-field issues and the erratic play is not going to send suitors banging down his door. He may be a signal-caller who stays unsigned until an injury or surprise retirement makes a team need a quarterback quickly.

Finally, Dalton will likely remain in the Cincinnati organization although if Joe Burrow is selected in the draft, the clock may start ticking. The Bengals should not be in a hurry to offload Dalton but again, a quarterback-needy team could come calling. The Patriots were a name tossed around a lot this off-season and would be a good fit for them if the answer isn’t on their roster already.

@FTfantasyFB asks…

What are our thoughts on the 49ers offense outside of Kittle this year? It’s hard to decipher what to make of their backfield and receivers.

Using the new DLF Snap Count App, I searched for some historical data to see how 2019 49ers backfield looked and of course, it was as clear as mud.

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All three backs were used sporadically and it was hard to predict from week to week how they would be employed. They were used nearly identically the first five weeks and then it all went awry. All three backs were effective and all three are talented in different ways.

Mostert seemed to take over the lead back role later in the season and was huge in the playoffs. Coleman is the more explosive back and has been great catching passes in the past. Breida is well-rounded and I love his game most of the three but can’t stay on the field consistently. Jerrick McKinnon is still on the roster as well but missed most of the past two seasons due to injury.

Kittle is the man for the 49ers passing game, leading the team with 107 targets and 85 catches. However, Deebo Samuel started to develop a rapport with Jimmy Garropollo and came on strong in the second half of the season. He was not as statistically dominant in the playoffs but made several key catches in key situations. He finished the regular season with 57 grabs on 81 targets and should be a key player in the offense.

Beyond Samuel, the depth chart gets murky quick and the 49ers are a popular landing spot for many of the top receivers in mock drafts. A dominant X-receiver to take attention away from Samuel and Kittle would open up the offense immensely. I love CeeDee Lamb and Tee Higgins to fill this role and if the 49ers get either, the offense could really open up.

For now, it’s tough to sell anyone on this offense I mentioned above, all could have fantasy-relevant roles on a good offense. This depresses the value of each, with the exception of Kittle and Samuel, and each back is pretty much a dart-throw it seems. Each can be obtained fairly inexpensive but none of the trio can be relied on.

dwight peebles
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