2020 NFL Draft Prospect – Joe Burrow, QB LSU

John Hesterman

Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Joe Burrow, QB from LSU. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!

In the expansive universe of dynasty fantasy football, one of the biggest names of the 2020 class is LSU quarterback, Joe Burrow. Both him and Tua Tagovailoa are deserving recipients of plenty of first-round buzz. Furthermore, both are speculated to go early in the first round.

Burrow cemented himself as a top-tier NFL prospect after an impressive 2019 season in which he threw for 60 touchdowns. For those who are curious as to how many college quarterbacks have achieved that feat, the answer is one. Joe Burrow. End of list.

Is that an indication of success at the next level? Not necessarily. Since 1956 only seven quarterbacks have thrown for 50 or more touchdowns. The second name on that list is Colt Brennan. Remember him from his NFL days? No? Me either. Throwing for a gaudy amount of touchdowns does not a future Pro Bowler make.

However, Burrow showed poise and some intangibles that have all the appearances of making him a highly-sought-after dynasty acquisition. Buckle up, we have some great stuff to cover.

THE STATS

screen shot 2020 04 01 at 16.46.24

screen shot 2020 04 01 at 16.46.31

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Burrow’s rise to collegiate prominence was not easily paved. In fact, he is more of a rags-to-riches type of story than anything else. As a redshirt freshman for the Ohio State Buckeyes, he played in six games as a backup. The following season, he only played in four games, once again primarily as a backup.

After losing the starting job to Dwayne Haskins prior to the 2018 season, Burrow transferred to LSU and was immediately rewarded with some playing time. In 13 games, he completed 219 passes for 2,894 yards and 16 touchdowns to only five interceptions. He also tacked on 399 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. This made him the first LSU quarterback to throw for at least 2,500 yards and rush for over 300 yards during a season. Little did anyone know that Burrow was just getting started.

Burrow exploded in his 2019 season. He finished the season 402-527 (76.3%) for 5,671 yards and a jaw-dropping 60 passing touchdowns. He only had six interceptions. Able to extend plays with both his arm and his legs, he also had 115 carries for 368 rushing yards and five more scores.

Burrow finished the season as the Heisman Trophy winner, beating out Jalen Hurts, and Justin Fields.

THE FILM

The clips below are from LSU versus Alabama in a great SEC matchup.

There are a few great moments here that deserve some attention. The very first clip shows Burrow not finding his guy downfield, and scrambling for plus yardage. At the 4:29 mark, Burrow stays cool under a bit of pressure and delivers a strike despite taking the hit that he saw coming. That kind of cool-under-pressure demeanor is a coveted trait at the next level. Finally, at the 5:51 mark, we see Burrow again under pressure from that stout Alabama defense. He sheds a defender, scrambles long enough to find a open man, and completes an off-balance throw for positive yardage.

I chose this particular game to break down for a variety of reasons. First, it is against a tough defense. There are plenty of times where we see Burrow under duress throughout this matchup. How a quarterback handles that type of pressure is an indicator of the mental toughness required to be successful at the NFL level. Burrow consistently found ways to move the ball despite nearly constant pressure from the opposing defense. He sees the field well, and does not lock-on to a particular receiver in a one-read fashion.

Burrow has solid vision and reads defenses well enough to work through a progression. He does well in rhythm, but excels in creating positive yards in unscripted situations and seems driven by competitive toughness.

In this matchup, Burrow finished 31-39 for 393 yards and three touchdowns. He added 64 rushing yards as well.

THE MEASURABLES

Burrow measures at six-foot-three and 221 pounds. His height/weight should have little to no impact on his ability to make plays at the NFL level. There was, however, plenty of talk about his hand-size. His official hand measurement was nine inches, which is fairly small by NFL quarterback standards. Burrow hilariously took to Twitter in a classic response. His arm length and hand size place him in the 15th and eighth percentiles, respectively per MockDraftable.

His measurables drew comps to players like Jimmy Garroppolo, CJ Beathard, and Colt McCoy. Of those, Burrow is the most mobile, which fits well into today’s NFL lineups.

DYNASTY VALUE

In dynasty rookie rankings, Burrow slides in as the highest-ranked quarterback, just one spot above Tagovailoa.

word image 251

He comes in as pick 14 overall among the other rookies, with a slew of running backs and wide receivers going ahead of him.

In a standard, single-quarterback startup draft that includes rookies, Burrow comes in with an overall ADP of 132, which translates into an 11th-round pick.

word image 252

That places him two spots behind Tagovailoa, and ahead of quarterbacks like Jared Goff and Matt Ryan.

To further explore his dynasty value, let’s take a look at superflex ADP.

word image 253

Here, we see Burrow at 25th overall, ahead of Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones. Some other players he’s ahead of in superflex format are Miles Sanders, AJ Brown, and Travis Kelce. The value shifts dramatically based on league format, but this serves to give an overview of where Burrow’s draft stock is currently measuring.

CONCLUSION

Let’s not mince words. Burrow is coming off of the greatest season in SEC history. Therefore, there is plenty of talk, whispers, gossip, note-passing, and online speculation that Joe Burrow should go as the number one overall pick and head straight for Cincinnati. Whether that occurs or nor, we cannot yet say. What we can say is that Burrow possesses a mostly complete toolset that should equip him for success at the NFL level. While that will still require some education, acclimation and grooming, the talent appears to be there.

Burrow’s football IQ is one of his premiere traits and helps cover up some of his limited weaknesses. No one is writing sonnets about his arm strength, however there is enough power there to compete at the NFL level. His timing and accuracy mesh with his ability to read opposing defenses. He frequently leads receivers away from coverage and has excellent anticipation, and is extremely accurate and balanced in the pocket. He also stays cool under pressure and maintains above-average accuracy when flushed away from the pocket.

One of my favorite intangibles about Burrow is his aggressive competitive confidence. He is fierce on the field and that trait – combined with his football smarts – makes him someone players will be eager, and loyal, to follow.

When watching tape of Burrow and looking for gaping holes in his play, there really is not much to label as a “red flag.” His play, leadership, and football intelligence remind me most of Tony Romo.

He may not have an Andrew Luck type of rookie season, but with proper grooming and a coaching staff that is eager to tailor an offense to his strengths, an early Pro Bowl appearance would not be surprising. He is an overall impressive package and should be treated as such by the dynasty faithful.

john hesterman
Latest posts by John Hesterman (see all)