Quarterbacks and Tight Ends I Am Avoiding

John DiBari

I’m nothing if not a pessimist. While the internet is full of people telling you who to target and what sleepers to keep an eye on, I like to look at the players to avoid. In this three-part series, I’ll look at running backs, wide receivers, then quarterbacks and tight ends. I’ll be targeting players with a startup ADP within the top ten rounds because everything after that comes with some risk, and a case can be made to avoid nearly everyone at that.

Running backs and wide receivers got their own articles, but I’m a big proponent of streaming at quarterback and tight end and think they can share a write-up. I have little faith in either position and feel like using a pick within the top ten rounds is often a waste of draft capital.

Lamar Jackson, QB BAL

A year ago, I warned everyone to stay away from Patrick Mahomes in 2019. Not that I didn’t believe in Mahomes – I think he’s outstanding – but the hype was out of control. After scoring over 330 points in 2019, he returned to reality and scored less than 280 points, finishing eighth at the position. We are going down the same path with Lamar Jackson after he scored over 420 points last year. Jackson does get a significant portion of his fantasy points with his legs, and that may be sustainable.

Still, unless he is the greatest fantasy football player in history, it’s unlikely for him to keep up this pace year after year. There is always value late at the position, and taking Jackson late in round two or early in round three is a waste of draft capital. Looking at players’ change in value over the last year, no player has seen a larger increase in value than Jackson. That alone tells me it’s time to zig while everyone else zags.

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Deshaun Watson, QB HOU

A few days ago, I was all aboard the Watson bandwagon. One horrific trade later, and Watson’s top weapon moved to the desert for a possibly washed-up running back, and I am terrified about Watson’s prospects for 2020. Since Watson arrived in Houston, DeAndre Hopkins has accounted for 35% of the team’s receiving yards and 38% of receiving touchdowns. Now with his top weapons looking like Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, and Keke Coutee, there is cause for concern.

The Texans also don’t have a draft pick until the 25th pick of round two, so the odds of them getting one of the difference makers at receiver at that spot is slim. Fuller looking like the team’s number one option after missing 22 games in four years is less than ideal. I don’t know how much missing Hopkins will hurt Watkins, and I have a hard time justifying him being the third QB off the board right now. There’s a chance he could realistically end up outside of the top ten. As of this writing, no mocks have been done since the Hopkins trade. I’m anticipating his ADP dropping from its current spot as QB3 and 84th overall.

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Travis Kelce, TE KC

NFL tight ends have a diverse skill set, playing what is oftentimes a hybrid offensive lineman and receiver. Unfortunately, that usage tends to lend itself to injury. Injuries are nearly impossible to predict; however, I’m not interested in burning my 31st overall pick on any tight end- especially one entering his age-31 season.

Everyone wants a piece of the Andy Reid offense, and Kelce has been nothing but consistent throughout his career. Looking at his ADP/Rank vs his PPG, you’ll see Kelce has been pretty much exactly what he has been expected to be. My guess is we start seeing the decline in Kelce’s game this season as he continues into his 30s. There are many other options going later in drafts who have both upside and a potentially longer shelf-life for dynasty owners.

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Zach Ertz, TE PHI

I’m fading another top tight end. Ertz has been a trusted target for Carson Wentz, but there is more than meets the eye here. The Eagles drafted Dallas Goedert two years ago, and he has slowly seen his workload increase while Ertz’s workload has decreased. In the two seasons they’ve played alongside one another, Ertz has seen his targets fall from 156 to 135, while Goedert has seen his targets increase from 44 to 87.

More importantly, Goedert is on his rookie contract, while Ertz is nearing the end of his $42 million deal. After this season, Ertz’s dead cap number is $7.7 million with a $12.7 million salary. If (when) the Eagles need to free up some money a year from now, we’ll likely see the Eagles move on from the soon to be 31-year-old before the 2021 season. It’s hard to imagine he’ll land in a better spot than he currently has in the city of brotherly love. This theory seems to be gaining some traction, as their ADPs have been getting closer over the last six months.

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What to Do

I advocate streaming both of these positions if you can. In only the deepest of leagues will the waiver wire be picked so clean that you can’t rotate a stream of quarterbacks and/or tight ends throughout the season. If you’re not in a position to employ a streaming strategy, the depth at both of these positions enables you to throw some darts later in drafts while stocking up on the more important running back and wide receiver positions earlier in drafts.

If you waited on both positions until after the tenth round, you could easily end up with OJ Howard or Jonnu Smith and Daniel Jones or Joe Burrow. Given the better running back and wide receiver options I’ll get to choose from earlier in drafts, I’ll be avoiding these top options at their positions in 2020.

john dibari