Wide Receivers I Am Avoiding
I’m nothing if not a pessimist. While the internet is full of people telling you who to target and what sleepers to keep an eye on, I like to look at the players to avoid. In this three-part series, I’ll look at running backs, wide receivers, then quarterbacks and tight ends. I’ll be targeting players with a startup ADP within the top ten rounds because everything after that comes with some risk, and a case can be made to avoid nearly everyone at that.
Now let’s take a look at the receivers I’ll be avoiding in 2020.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR PIT
Somehow, Smith-Schuster is still the fifth receiver being taken and the 13th player overall in startup drafts. I don’t get it. I understand he was injured. I am aware he played with an awful combination of Mason Rudolph and Delvin Hodges at quarterback. However, I also know that this was JuJu’s first year as a number one receiver in the NFL, facing opposing teams’ top corners without peak Antonio Brown drawing coverage from top corners with help from safeties across from him.
Would anyone be shocked if Diontae Johnson or James Washington surpassed Smith-Schuster as the Steelers’ top option in 2020? Both had more success in 2019 while playing with the same terrible quarterbacks. Johnson averaged 10.3 points per game, Washington 9.5, and Smith-Schuster 10.1. Comparing their current ADPs, one player is likely to underperform their ADP, while two are probably going to surpass theirs. Johnson finished 2019 as WR41, and Washington was WR50. I’m not generally anti-JuJu, but at WR5 with tons of quality options going just behind him, I’ll pass.
Marquise Brown, WR BAL
At last year’s NFL Scouting Combine, Brown ran a 4.32-second 40-yard dash, and speed freaks everywhere were enamored. Entering his sophomore season in the NFL, on a Ravens team that led the league in points scored, and were the only team to average more than 30 points per game (33.2), Hollywood Brown has seen his ADP climb up to WR35. That’s too rich for my blood, and he’s going to have a hard time returning value at that price point.
First of all, in his first game last year, Brown exploded and set the hype-train in motion for the remainder of the season. He caught four balls for 147 yards and two touchdowns. However, for the rest of the year, Brown only caught two touchdowns in one more game, only topped four receptions on two more occasions and never went over 100 yards again. In best-ball leagues, I get it, but I’m not interested at all outside of best-ball. According to ESPN’s consistency ratings, only three receivers in the top 40 were less consistent than Brown. I’m not looking to play the 30-points-one-week-6-points-the-next game.
Additionally, the Ravens were the league’s most run-heavy team, rushing the ball a league-leading 54% of the time. They only threw the ball 532 times in 2019. By comparison, the Chiefs tossed the ball 720 times – that’s nearly 200 more targets up for grabs. Brown averaged 11 points-per-game in PPR last year. The cut off for WR1 and WR2 was 15ish and 13ish per game, respectively. Could Brown possibly get another reception and 20 yards per game in 2020 to get himself into the WR2 category? Maybe. But this is a team with little on the roster at the position. As a result, they are rumored to be a candidate to draft another receiver this year.
All this is without even mentioning that 31% of all Ravens passes went to tight ends last year. The volume isn’t likely to be there for a boom-bust player like Brown to be worth drafting, especially when TY Hilton, AJ Green, Diontae Johnson, and Robby Anderson are being selected right behind him.
Mike Evans, WR TB
Tom Brady is coming to Tampa Bay! Yay or Nay? For Mike Evans, I’m going to guess it’s going to be nay. Over his six-year career, Evans has averaged 147 targets per year, including a monstrous total of 171 three seasons ago. Over the last six years, Brady’s top target has averaged 131 targets. True, it’s only 16 fewer targets per year, but that’s assuming that Evans would be Brady’s top target from day one. Looking at Brady’s ADOT vs. Evans’ ADOT, they might not be on the same page.
Since Evans has entered the NFL, Brady’s ADOT has been 8.05, and Evans’ has been 14.75- and has never been below 13.7. By comparison, over the last decade, Brady’s highest ADOT has only been 9.01. As you can see above, Brady dips below league average when his targets are deeper than 30 yards. On the other hand, below, you can see that Evans starts to get better after 30 yards. On paper, this isn’t ideal for either player.
Brady has a history of quick passes to his slot receiver or tight end, not sitting back after taking a seven-step drop to wait for a play to develop downfield. Evans and teammate Chris Godwin are currently being selected 14th and 15th overall, as wide receivers six and seven off the board. Do I think a soon-to-be 43-year old Tom Brady can support multiple top-ten fantasy receivers in a new city and a new system? Nope. My money is on Godwin to get most of Brady’s attention from the slot, with Evans making occasional splash plays down the field, but not on the scale we’ve been accustomed to with Jameis Winston under center.
Totally unrelated, but if the Buccaneers bring back the creamsicle uniforms, I’m ok with moving Evans and Godwin up to a tie for WR1 overall, with Brady as the QB1 overall too, because those things are amazing.
What to Do
In my previous look at running backs to avoid, I could still find a silver lining to the players I was turning my back on. Here with receivers, I can’t find the upside. I’m avoiding these players in startup dynasty drafts, in redraft, and if I have them rostered in existing dynasty leagues, I’m posting them to the trade block and will be accepting the best offer I get. Everyone becomes a value at some point, but they would all have to fall dramatically for me to consider rostering any of them in 2020.
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