Sam Darnold: Buy or Sell?
It was far from a smooth sophomore season for Sam Darnold and the New York Jets.
Expected to make a big jump in 2019, the Jets instead trampled out to a 1-7 start, and Darnold, of course, missed three of those games due to being diagnosed with mononucleosis. In the second half of the season, however, the team played more inspired football, winning six of their last eight games to finish with a 7-9 record.
Statistically, Darnold did not make the leap expected of him, as he threw for 3,024 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. His 189.16 fantasy points were just 42nd among all players according to FantasyData, and 27th in points among all quarterbacks. This especially paled in comparison to his peers including Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, who both ran circles around him in fantasy points.
From a tape perspective, however, I thought Darnold had an above-average sophomore season, especially in the season’s second half. While he threw 13 interceptions on the year, seven of them came in back-to-back games against the Patriots (four) and Jaguars (three). Otherwise, he threw for 17 touchdowns and six interceptions on the year; Not gaudy by any means but a little more favorable in his regard.
Two scenarios severely affected Darnold’s second year as well. The first was the offensive line, which was terrible. The team allowed 109 quarterback hits (tied with the Buccaneers for fifth most in all 2019, trailing the Dolphins, Falcons, Giants, and Seahawks) as well as allowing 52 sacks (fourth most behind the Dolphins, Panthers, and Titans), so improved pass protection is needed. The second scenario was the poor coaching of Adam Gase, who didn’t seem to be all that interested in allowing Darnold to stretch the field vertically. It’s no surprise that the offense ranked dead last in yards per play (4.6), and sixth last in yards per attempt (6.0).
Darnold’s health in the early part of the year also mitigated his progress, but at 22 years old he’s still an extremely raw athlete. He was turnover prone in college and has had a few rotten games in his career where he’s been serving up interceptions. Still, there is potential there even if his offensive line and coach aren’t up to the task.
With that said, let’s go through Darnold’s dynasty value by watching his tape, looking at both his strengths and his weaknesses.
What immediately comes to mind as part of Darnold’s appeal is his mobility. He won’t dazzle you with dominant run-heavy performances like Jackson or Allen, but he’s got extremely athletic legs which can help him move around the pocket while evading pressure. That’s a good thing because the Jets’ pass protection certainly gave him more than enough practice.
On the QB keeper, Darnold is immediately met with edge pressure and must act quickly in order to avoid punishment. This is where his athleticism enhances the play. He slows down and glides past the edge rusher, buying himself some extra time as he finds himself an uncovered Ryan Griffin for the touchdown. Though this play was negated by a holding penalty on the Jets, it’s still a skillful representation of mobility on Darnold’s part.
I would also argue that Darnold’s accuracy is more refined than Josh Allen’s. This play under duress is one such indication, as Ravens pass rusher Matt Judon gets by the left tackle on his way to drilling the quarterback. Fortunately, Darnold has the poise and acumen needed to stand tall and deliver a strike on time to Jamison Crowder. He understands he has to take a hit and his mechanics/ball delivery are in no way affected by the heavy pressure. Crowder is then able to tightrope the sideline and take this pass in for the touchdown.
In flashes, Darnold has proven to be a sensational playmaker. His talent is impeccable and he has enough mobility and arm strength to make throws many quarterbacks couldn’t have a chance to consider.
On this third-down play, Darnold avoids an easy first down (by running) by going for a more difficult play to Robby Anderson. This time he’s able to get enough room to attempt this throw without getting hit, and throws across his body into an impossibly small window to Anderson for the third-down conversion.
This is the best play of Darnold’s career so far, one that shows how far he’s come and how much further he could go if he develops more consistency. In order to do that, he’ll need to limit the turnovers in year three, but not to the extent you may think.
Plays like this are where Darnold has to show improvement. This isn’t so much a knock on his decision-making as it is a knock on his accuracy. His anticipation is aggressive on this play (as he plans to throw his receiver open against tight coverage), but the ball is thrown behind his target, resulting in a Jaguars interception. Another issue is that the arm strength on this pass could’ve been a little better.
This could be the worst interception we’ll ever see, though some would argue Darnold was trying to throw this ball away and got unlucky. Some might even go further and argue he should’ve taken a sack while others would say the throwaway being disrupted was merely coincidental and very rarely happens on those plays. I guess he should’ve taken a sack here, though getting as good of a chance to score after that is not possible after getting on the goal line, so I don’t blame Darnold for either throwing this away or trying to make something happen.
It’s still ill-advised, however.
Beyond his weaknesses, I think Sam Darnold is an above-average quarterback with commendable mobility, arm strength, and peak accuracy. Sadly I would not recommend drafting him high in dynasty leagues (for a quarterback) because of the uncomfortable presence of a back-breaking offensive line and the incompetence of Adam Gase. It’s a shame because with a staff that could give him slightly more breathing room I believe Darnold would have the potential to be a very good dynasty asset.
Getting Darnold cheap in very late rounds would not be that bad of a move, but his situation around him makes me weary to draft him any higher for now.
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