2020 NFL Draft Prospect – Jalen Hurts, QB Oklahoma
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Jalen Hurts, QB from Oklahoma. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!
Everyone wants to talk about the top running backs and wide receivers in this year’s draft. Especially in dynasty circles, the debate is heavy between some of these players. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa own all the buzz from this year’s quarterback class. Justin Herbert is also receiving some praise, but nothing like the two previously-mentioned quarterbacks who many have pegged to get drafted within the first couple picks of the draft.
Jalen Hurts, the once prominent young quarterback who played for both Alabama and Oklahoma, is waiting in the wings. His stock is climbing throughout the off-season after a tremendous senior season. Can he develop into one of dynasty’s new must-get quarterback prospects? Or will he just become another Mason Rudolph? Only time will tell, but his profile as a whole is very exciting. It’s going to be interesting to see how his career pans out.
THE STATS
Courtesy of sports-reference.com.
Hurts started his collegiate career off with a bang, passing for 2,780 yards and 23 touchdowns while also rushing for 954 yards and 13 touchdowns as a freshman. He had five games where he passed for 250 yards or more. Hurts also eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark four times that season. His best game came against Mississippi State where he passed for 347 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for 100 yards and one touchdown. He also led the Crimson Tide to the national title game where Alabama lost to Clemson 35-31. That year he was awarded the SEC’s offensive player of the year.
His sophomore season was riddled with many ups and downs. Alabama was running through teams with ease with Hurts leading the charge. Like the previous year, he was one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation but there were questions surrounding his abilities as a passer. He did pass for over 2,000 yards for his second straight season and rushed for 855 yards and eight touchdowns. In the national championship game, he was relieved by promising star Tua Tagovailoa, who led the team from behind to beat the Georgia Bulldogs 26-23.
There was a huge quarterback controversy going into his junior season. Tagovailoa eventually became the starter. Hurts injured his ankle and missed a large portion of the season. He got the opportunity to play in the SEC championship game, but he was an afterthought for the majority of the season.
After entering the transfer portal and making his way to Oklahoma, he exploded for 3,851 passing yards and 32 touchdowns on top of his 1,298 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. He rejuvenated his career with four games with over 300 yards passing and four games with over 120 yards rushing. He led that nation with 11.3 passing yards per attempt and also ranked eighth in the nation in passing yardage.
THE FILM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=og3Ovq4dX6k
The game clip posted above is from his 2019 performance against Texas where he passed for 235 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 131 yards and one touchdown. This game is a good display of his arm talent. It also showcases how effective he is as a runner.
Hurts has a very strong arm. He can sling the rock all over the field. He can zip it on a line and whip it downfield. Also, while on the run, he has the ability to throw the ball with power while off balance. His arm strength makes up for any limitations in his throwing mechanics.
Here are all of Jalen Hurts throws targeted 10+ yards downfield in the Big 12 championship game pic.twitter.com/JN6WBvBhMd
— Ryan McCrystal (@Ryan_McCrystal) March 16, 2020
When it comes to maneuvering the pocket and avoiding tacklers while keeping his eyes downfield, Hurts is one of the best in the business. He stays cool, calm, and poised while under duress. His natural instincts give him a feel of where and when the pocket is collapsing. Hurts is a very strong player and is tough to tackle. Arm tackles won’t bring him down either – he has the play strength to step up in the pocket and deliver a pass with defenders crashing down him.
Going through his progressions can be a challenge for him. He has a tendency to lock onto his first read. He has a history of making some catastrophic errors when trying to extend the play. Hurts also has a bad habit of prematurely leaving the pocket by either rolling out or trying to make a short gain with his legs. This also causes him to search for a running lane instead of just standing tall while remaining patient and continuing through his progressions.
It would go a long way if he could get quicker at pulling the trigger. If he could add a little bit of urgency to his game while extending the play, then he would see more success and avoid some catastrophic mistakes.
Even though he has a really strong arm, he struggles with accuracy at times. He’s good at getting the ball in the general vicinity but struggles with pinpoint accuracy. He’s more Kerry Wood than Greg Maddux when it comes to his throwing style. That being said, some of his throws will get away from him and go off target. He will also lighten up on his throwing velocity to guide the ball to his target, giving more time for defenders to make a read on the football.
Hurts’ mobility makes him very dangerous when get leaves the pocket. His speed permits him to eat large chunks of yardage. He’s also very powerful at the point of contact. Oklahoma used him as a short-yardage and goal-line back whenever possible. Hurts has the Konami code tattooed on his back. His mobility elevates his ceiling while also boosting his overall upside in fantasy.
THE MEASURABLES
Hurts measured in at 6-foot-1 and 222 pounds. His height shouldn’t impact his ability to make plays at the NFL level. He ran a 4.59-second 40-yard dash which ranks in the 91st percentile among quarterback prospects and equates to a 123.8 speed score. Once Hurts gets drafted, he will be one of the fastest quarterbacks in the league.
The comparable list for him is very interesting. The one name that is flashing in lights is Donovan McNabb. These two players tested very similarly. Hurts is an inch shorter but has more long speed and burst. Both quarterbacks are great athletes who have strong arms and can pick up yards through the air and on the ground.
DYNASTY VALUE
He is usually the 26th quarterback off the board in startup drafts with an ADP of 193.83. Hurts is currently falling to around the 16th round in traditional 1QB leagues, making him basically free. However, it’s quite interesting he’s being drafted ahead of Tom Brady, Dwayne Haskins, Gardner Minshew, Ben Roethlisberger, Mitch Trubisky, and Philip Rivers.
You would think he would hold a lot more value in superflex leagues, but he’s currently holding a 185 startup draft ADP. I would expect his value to increase substantially in the next couple of months. His positional value combined with his potential draft capital will make him a big-time riser in superflex leagues. He’s a relatively safe asset considering owners are going to give him a few extra years to develop before they cast him aside which will provide extra selling opportunities down the road if he doesn’t develop.
Hurts is being drafted in the fourth round in 1QB rookie drafts with an ADP of 44.50. I’m more than willing to spend a third-round rookie pick on him to make sure I get him on my team. I don’t suggest playing chicken with him to see if you could snag him with a fourth-round pick because more often than not, he’s not going to fall to you in the fourth round.
When it comes to superflex leagues, he is being drafted at the tail end of the second round of rookie drafts with a 24 ADP, making him the fifth quarterback off the board. Considering his rushing floor, this is a steal and I believe his value will significantly increase between now and the end of the actual NFL Draft.
CONCLUSION
Hurts is a very exciting quarterback prospect. He can lead your fantasy team to the promised land with his arm and his legs. Quarterback is one of the toughest positions to peg in dynasty, but his rushing appeal definitely increases his overall floor in fantasy.
With this year’s class being stacked with talent at both running back and wide receiver, Hurts will get pushed down in some drafts, making him a value play. It’s highly likely that he will increase his stock during his career. The arbitrage created by the overwhelming amount of talent in this year’s draft will allow us to draft players like Hurts at a significant discount.
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