Can Josh Allen Fill Your Void at Quarterback in Dynasty Leagues?
The Buffalo Bills have some of the right pieces in place going into the 2020 season. Sean McDermott seems to be a competent head coach with a good plan going forward, and the defense is only a couple of players away from becoming a dominant unit. Rookies Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox were bright spots on the offense, and the signing of wideout John Brown proved to be a hit.
Many would argue, however, that the quarterback position is to be determined. What they mean by that is how the progress of third-year starter Josh Allen is going to go down. Allen was a polarizing prospect going into the 2018 draft, but was eventually able to find a rabidly loyal Buffalo fan base behind his back. To his supporters, Allen is a big reason why the Bills were able to make the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. To his detractors, he was a big reason why they didn’t go further.
So depending on your perspective, you may be optimistic or pessimistic about Allen’s upside. What’s indisputable, however, is that he was a worthy fantasy asset in 2019. That year he finished with 3,089 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 510 rushing yards, and nine touchdowns on the ground. This was good enough for 288.56 fantasy points using FantasyData’s metrics, seventh among all players, and sixth among all quarterbacks (behind Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Jameis Winston).
Because of Allen’s risky style of play, there are a few who have suggested the Bills are a likely regression candidate in 2020. After all, we’ve seen how well this turned out with Blake Bortles and the 2017 Jaguars and Mitchell Trubisky and the 2018 Bears, so where these guys are coming from isn’t far off at all. On the other hand, more positive analysis suggests Allen is more talented than both of the quarterbacks listed, and that he has untapped potential in the NFL heading into his third season.
With all this in mind, can Allen fill the void at QB for your dynasty team, or will his flaws steer him away from the path he set foot on during 2019? Let’s take a look and find out for ourselves in this film breakdown.
One thing I will say is that there is a major issue with Allen’s game, and that comes in his decision-making. Similar to Jameis Winston, Allen’s playmaking can range from absolutely awe-inspiring to just downright baffling. This play against the Broncos is one such instance.
Technically, this is more of an accuracy issue than anything else, but I’m not sure the receiver would’ve had a chance to catch this even if it were way lower. Either way, sailing this much on a short pass isn’t as much of a concern as long as it’s done in small amounts, but in Allen’s case, it’s done more frequently. As a result, he’s punished with an interception.
Accuracy issues can be overstated in the NFL, especially for younger starters, though it seems to be a severe issue for Allen going into year three. He was the fourth-least accurate downfield passer on throws to open receivers, and the least accurate inside the pocket. Whether it be doing too much to try and get a successful home run ball or just simply having sloppy mechanics, Allen has left many plays on the field from his misses, a problem that must get refined in the off-season.
So those are some reasons to avoid Josh Allen in dynasty. Now let’s check out reasons to go after him.
To Allen’s credit, he’s not a talentless hack playing behind a loaded cast of players. He has incredible arm talent and is one of the more mobile quarterbacks in the NFL today, and that’s a good thing considering how bad the Bills offensive line was in 2019. They didn’t allow close to the most sacks or quarterback hits, but Allen’s mobility sure negated a lot of the pressure they allowed.
The success of Lamar Jackson’s 2019 season overshadowed other 2018 QB prospects, but Allen also enjoyed a similar degree of success on the ground. This third and five escape against the Broncos is a perfect example; Using his athleticism, Allen is able to put two Broncos defenders on ice as he escapes the pocket and heads for the sidelines. Getting well past the first down marker, he’s able to turn a potential sack on third and five into a 27-yard scramble to move the chains.
Allen may not be the most disciplined passer of his class, but it’s clear he has the most spectacular arm talent. Analysts who tout big-armed quarterbacks sing praises about their ability to make any throw from any angle, and to their credit, this is a quarterback who can do that.
This pass may look a little ordinary as Cole Beasley is wide open across the middle of the field, but take a look at just how Allen throws this on the run. A lesser talent would have to backpedal in the pocket and float this up just to even have a chance to get it to Beasley, but thanks to Allen’s arm and legs, all he has to do is adjust his body on the run to cannon this into his receiver’s wheelhouse. Oh yeah, and he also does it while escaping interior pressure.
There are flashes of brilliance in Allen’s game to the degree that I wish I could love him. Alas, we’re not there yet, but at least we have these plays to look at. In this brilliant third-down play, he uses a little pinch of patience before rolling out of the pocket. It’s here that he notices Devin Singletary coming to his left, so Allen is able to throw across his body and in stride to his teammates’ hands for a huge first down.
It’s arguably the best play of Allen’s season, maybe even his professional career.
With the hints of genius, however, come as much if not more moments of frustration on Josh Allen’s part. He has all the physical talent in the world, and to a degree, he will always get by on that. But limitations on his processing and accuracy can put a stop to that if he doesn’t take the next step in both areas this off-season.
So with that in mind, I wouldn’t draft Allen as high as Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, or Russell Wilson, but if you like to wait until after the cream of the crop players get drafted, Allen could be a really good option. As a quarterback, he has issues to work out, but as a dynasty player, he’s able to do more than enough in the air and especially on the ground to make a potential investment in him rewarding for your team.
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