Post-Combine Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Round Three
Now that the NFL Scouting Combine has come and gone, we are entering the meat of the NFL Draft season. For a few of us, this time of year is almost more exciting than the actual games! It is still extremely early in the season, but I gathered 11 of DLF’s finest and went through a three-round mock draft. The rules of the draft were simple. Three rounds, no trading, take the best fantasy player asset available.
For this mock, we assumed balanced PPR scoring and only a single starting quarterback. I’ll be posting a follow up for those of you who are superflex/2QB people.
Please keep in mind this is very early in the process. Opinions can and will change drastically between now and when rookie drafts actually happen. Here is what we are thinking as of now though.
If you missed round one, you can read it here. And click here to read round two.
3.01 – Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR Michigan
3.02 – Cole Kmet, TE Notre Dame
3.03 – Michael Pittman Jr, WR USC
3.04 – Chase Claypool, WR Notre Dame
By the time you get to the third round, I’m a huge proponent of shifting your focus to quarterbacks and tight ends. Historically speaking, running backs and wide receivers drafted in the third round or later of fantasy drafts have a less than 10% chance of turning into a starter quality player for multiple years. Tight ends and quarterbacks are about double that number. With that said, this mock ended with zero running backs, seven wide receivers, four tight ends, and just one quarterback in the final round.
Peoples-Jones is a bit of an enigma. In college, he was a much better returner than a receiver. In fact, during his three years, he never topped 100 receiving yards in any game. He also had the look at times of a sub-par athlete with a very casual attitude. Then he shows up to the Combine, checks in with plus size at 6’2” and 212 pounds, runs a 4.48-second 40-yard dash, and is one of the top performers in the jumps. I would have loved to see some shuttle and cone drill numbers on him, because maybe the issue is a lack of agility. Regardless, the Combine performance is going to make a lot of people go back and look at his film again.
The first tight end of this mock draft is not the one I was expecting. In fact, I don’t think I would have had him in my top three! None the less, tight end is difficult to predict at times and I don’t feel like there is a top tier at the position this year. Kmet is, for the most part, a one year producer who has one of the largest and most athletic profiles of the group. He is willing, both as a blocker and as a pass-catcher, but he needs some work and a lot of polish at both of those things. He’s going to be a project as a tight end, but he could pay off big if a team is willing to be patient.
Pittman is a receiver I expected to see in the second round of this mock draft. One of the largest receivers in this year’s draft, Pittman isn’t overly athletic, but I was pleasantly surprised with his 4.52-second time in the 40. He isn’t overly quick though, which might limit how effective his routes can be at the next level. Nonetheless, he has great hands, wins at the point of the catch, and is on the upper end of the football IQ spectrum. He won’t be the top target on a team, but he could make for a very nice WR2 for an NFL team. His production ceiling will be dependent on the offense he lands on.
The second Notre Dame player in three picks, Claypool is the typical size-speed freak that Notre Dame has been producing the last few years. Players like Myles Boykin and Equanimeous St. Brown. They absolutely destroy the Combine and make people drool with their frames, but they are far from complete receivers. At this point, he is more athlete than receiver. The question will be if an NFL coaching staff will be able to turn him into one. The ceiling is high, but the floor is so very low as well.
3.05 – Antonio Gibson, WR Memphis
3.06 – Devin Duvernay, WR Texas
3.07 – Isaiah Hodgins, WR Oregon State
3.08 – Hunter Bryant, TE Washington
A bit of a wildcard, Gibson mostly played receiver in college but was also featured as a returner and even a bit of running back at times. While he didn’t see a ton of playing time in college, he was a massive big-play threat with a touchdown on about 15% of his touches. If he lands with a creative play-caller, he could be a lot of fun to watch at the next level. However, he might be one of those players who is much more valuable to his NFL team than a fantasy team due to the boom-or-bust nature.
One of the most productive receivers in all of college football last year, Duvernay was a beast with the ball in his hands. His size almost fits better in the running back room as does his play style with the ball. Where he lacks is that he is a very straight-line player who at times struggles to track the ball and win at the point of the catch. When he is open though, he seldom drops a pass. The potential is there, but I’m not quite sure where he fits in an NFL receiver group.
Another highly-productive receiver, Hodgins is a big body with great hands, superb instincts, and wonderful body control. He tracks the ball well and has a knack for winning at the point of the catch. Where he struggles is in the athletic department. His speed is below average as is his agility. This results in him struggling to get open against more talented cornerbacks. He’s likely going to be restricted to a possession receiver at the next level and maybe just a red-zone target.
The player who some project at the top tight end in this class, though it is very close, comes off the board at 3.08. This isn’t a bumper year for the tight end position. Bryant is shorter than most of the other tight ends in this class at “only” 6’2”, which might concern some, but he carries almost 250 pounds on that frame. He has very strong hands and ball skills to go along with good speed for his size. What he lacks is wiggle. He struggles with some of the more complex routes due to this lack of agility. The other major red flag is the multiple knee issues over the years.
3.09 – Albert Okwuegbunam, TE Missouri
3.10 – Justin Herbert, QB Oregon
3.11 – Harrison Bryant, TE Florida Atlantic
3.12 – Van Jefferson, WR Florida
Our third tight end of the round so far, Okwuegbunam is an athletic freak. At 6’5” and 258 pounds, he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.49 seconds. No, that isn’t a misprint. That’s better than half of the wide receiver field while carrying and extra 50 pounds compared to most of them. His college production was fairly limited, but he showed a nose for the end zone. His routes aren’t natural and require a lot of work, as does his blocking at times. However, the size-speed combo makes him a huge mismatch who someone will want to take advantage of at the next level.
Considering that we might have as many as four quarterbacks drafted in the first ten picks of the NFL draft, I was shocked that Herbert was still on the board at this point. Coming off the board more than a full round after the top two quarterbacks, I think this is huge value at this point in the draft. I would have taken him half a round earlier! Had Herbert come out in last year’s draft, many had him projected as the top quarterback in the class. While he isn’t a perfect prospect by any means, he does a good job at all phases of the game and has an arm that can make all the throws. Where he needs to develop is with his touch and knowing when to put a bit more air under the ball. Regardless, at this point in the draft he is well worth the pick.
The second tight end named Bryant in this mock draft, Harrison Bryant played for Florida Atlantic and was the national leader in yards by a tight end last year. Slightly thin for his 6’5” frame, he is a willing blocker who might need to add a little to his frame to anchor a line in the NFL. He does bring plus athletic ability though with an ability to find the soft spots in zone as well as beating man to man coverage. Overall, his routes could use a little polish, but I think he is an underrated tight end prospect.
Mr. Irrelevant of our mock draft was Van Jefferson. Jefferson is very solid as a receiver but doesn’t really jump off the page in terms of production or athleticism. However, he is the son of an NFL receivers coach and is everything that you would expect to come with that. He understands the game and knows exactly what to do to maximize his effectiveness. This is awesome; however, it might also mean that he has already hit his peak. Much like Brian Robiskie, Jefferson could struggle to step up his game at the next level.
That’s it for the final round. I’ll be back with a quick superflex spin on things about how it would have been different with that setup. Who surprised you and who do you feel like we missed in our three rounds?
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
