Post-Combine Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Round One
Now that the NFL Scouting Combine has come and gone, we are entering the meat of the NFL Draft season. For a few of us, this time of year is almost more exciting than the actual games! It is still extremely early in the season, but I gathered 11 of DLF’s finest and went through a three-round mock draft. The rules of the draft were simple. Three rounds, no trading, take the best fantasy player asset available.
For this mock, we assumed balanced PPR scoring and only a single starting quarterback. I’ll be posting a follow up for those of you who are superflex/2QB people.
Please keep in mind this is very early in the process. Opinions can and will change drastically between now and when rookie drafts actually happen. Here is what we are thinking as of now though.
1.01 – Jonathan Taylor, RB Wisconsin
1.02 – D’Andre Swift, RB Georgia
I know everyone talks about the top tier having as many as six or seven players in it, but then pretty much every mock draft I look at right now has Taylor and Swift as the top two picks in the draft. I feel like there is a little bit of a 1A tier and then a 1B tier that is very close behind it, but that there is still a gap. Occasionally, I’ve seen one of the top two receivers jump up into the top two slots, but it seems to overwhelmingly be these two right now. The NFL Draft can definitely change that.
While neither of these backs are viewed as Saquon Barkley levels of prospects, I think they both have the potential to be future every-week RB1s in fantasy leagues for the next several years. Taylor is the next in a very long line of ultra-productive running backs to come out of Wisconsin, and he might just be the best one yet. I think he has a strong claim to being the best pure rusher in this year’s draft class. He has ideal size for the position and showed up even better than expected athletic ability at the Combine. While he isn’t super dynamic in turns of huge plays or making people miss, he is very reliable with superb instincts. The biggest concerns for him are the high volume in college, lack of true passing game skills, and his ball security issues.
Of the two, Swift is a much more natural three-down running back. He excels in space and has great hands. This leads many to think that just through usage he might be the more valuable of the two running backs. The quick twitch ability he possesses allows him to make people miss and tends to make up for his lack of homerun hitting speed. Where he falls behind, especially when compared to Taylor, is that he isn’t as natural when running the ball. He also has some of the same ball security issues that Taylor has shown. Between the two, I think ultimately situation will decide who tends to be the most common first overall selection.
1.03 – CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
1.04 – Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama
1.05 – JK Dobbins, RB Ohio State
1.06 – Cam Akers, RB Florida State
1.07 – Henry Ruggs, WR Alabama
1.08 – Tee Higgins, WR Clemson
These six players round out what many consider to be the top tier in this draft. Some of these could slide up or down as a result of the NFL draft. Occasionally, I’ve seen them slide up into the top two, but typically these six players make up the three-through-eight range as they do here. Personally, I think Lamb and Jeudy make up a little mini-tier within this group right now.
Lamb was a highly productive big-play threat in college who excelled with the ball in his hands. He used his plus athleticism on a routine basis to win against college corner backs over and over, allowing him to post a college football leading 21.4 yards per catch. The concerns for Lamb center around his slightly lean build and the fact that he won in college based on just being a better athlete. He is going to need to refine his technique to guarantee wins at the next level. The good news is that he has everything that you can’t teach.
Thanks to playing at Alabama and being the next in what is becoming a long line of NFL receivers, Jeudy has been in the spotlight for years. Supremely productive for multiple years, Jeudy’s calling care are his speed and his route running. When you mix the two, you get one of the more dangerous receivers in the intermediate and deep parts of the field. Where people question him is that he had some issues with drops and inconsistency as well as wondering if he is more of a really good number two on an NFL team than a true alpha.
From what I’ve seen these past few weeks, Dobbins is a little bit of a polarizing prospect. Some feel he belongs up there with Taylor and Swift while others have him as fourth or even fifth in their running back rankings. Our drafted touted his supreme production with over 2000 yards and 21 rushing touchdowns last year as well as him never missing a game. He also showed some work in the passing game as well, which means he could be a bell cow at the next level. My biggest concern with him is that he doesn’t have anything that is special. He is good but not great at pretty much everything. Sometimes players without a special quality just end up in committee roles with someone who does.
Akers is is pushing Dobbins in a lot of people’s rankings, and in some cases surpassing him. Despite playing on a team that wasn’t very good and had a lack of weapons, Akers was still able to produce. Don’t get me wrong – he didn’t produce like the other running backs we have talked about so far, but given the situation, he did a pretty good job! He has a better athletic profile than most running backs in the class as well. Our drafted wanted to see him develop more as a rusher, but I’m more concerned about him not being a natural pass catcher as well as some of the ball security issues. In some ways, I almost feel like he is a poor man’s Jonathan Taylor. Others love Akers though.
Ruggs has been a fast riser. So much so that I recently read a comment that was questioning if he is the Alabama receiver to own in this draft class. I wouldn’t go that far, but I do believe Ruggs is the most explosive receiver in this draft. Some have compared him to a certain explosive receiver in Kansas City, except without the major character and off the field red flags. Ruggs is undersized, and like most undersized receivers he struggles with his release when being pressed as well as struggling with contested catches. He can work on both of these things and has the potential to turn into a huge big play threat. If he lands on the right team with a strong-armed passer, he could be huge!
Unlike Akers and Ruggs, Higgins seems to be trending down recently. I know not performing at the combine due to “lack of time” raised some red flags, especially since several of the other top ten receivers had the same amount of time to prep as Higgins. Personally, I worry that he knows he isn’t going to test well because I don’t see a superb athlete. I see a very large frame who great instincts at the point of the catch and who is one of the best at going up and getting the ball when it is in the air. However, his routes are limited, he can be bullied by must smaller defenders, and he seems to be a very average athlete in terms of receivers.
1.09 – Jalen Reagor, WR TCU
1.10 – Justin Jefferson, WR LSU
1.11 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB LSU
1.12 – Laviska Shenault, WR Colorado
If the previous eight make up the first tier, or as I see it a 1A and 1B tier, then these four make up the next one. This means the first two tiers extend through the entirety of the first round as things stand right now, which is about twice as large as we normally see. Of course, some of these players will land in less than favorable situations, but things are still looking pretty good overall.
Reagor is going to be an interesting player to watch. Many, including our drafter, feel like he could have really used another year in college to develop his game. At this point in time, he is more of a gifted athlete who happens to play receiver than a receiver who is a gifted athlete. In college, he was extremely inconsistent in all phases of his game: release, routes, and the catch. Poor quarterback play definitely didn’t help him and may be the main reason he is in the draft this year and not next year. He has huge athletic ability but is extremely raw. The question is if there is enough there that he can be refined into something great. He’s definitely a high-risk, high-reward pick.
If you want to talk about a natural receiver, look no further than Jefferson. His instincts for the position as well as his hands are both off the charts. Those are two things that almost every great has in spades, and Jefferson checks those boxes. He also tested better at the Combine than many, including me, expected from him. On the needs improvement side, Jefferson needs to work on using that athleticism in his routes. While he abuses zone defenses, he struggled more in man coverage due to not creating a ton of separation at times. Fortunately, with an accurate quarterback and his ball skills, he was still productive.
Enter the bowling ball! Clyde Edwards-Helaire, or CEH for short, carries the same weight as many of the other top running backs on a frame three or four inches shorter. He is extremely compact with very quick feet, which is unusual for someone who his build. When you mix in great instincts, he can make people miss and is tough to bring down, which is why he is slowly creeping upwards on many people’s boards. He is also very good as a receiver out of the backfield. The concerns for him mostly revolve around his speed. He has a great first step, but those second and third steps are rather slow. He isn’t going to beat NFL linebackers to the edge, which could limit him at the next level. He was also just average in short yardage situations in college, which could further limit him. There is a lot to like, but also some concerns.
Shenault was the final pick of the first round and a player I’m personally not very excited about. Don’t get me wrong. There are a lot of things to like. He has great size, awesome hands, and can play anywhere on the field. He can track the deep ball or run a quick hitting crossing route for that first down. The only thing he can’t do is stay on the field. In the “best ability is availability” department, Shenault isn’t going to win any awards. In addition to multiple “minor” injuries, Shenault has at as many surgeries as he did years in college. He had toe surgery after his first year, shoulder surgery after his second, and now core muscle/pubic area surgery. He could be another John Ross. Very talented, but just can’t stay on the field.
That’s it for the first round. I’ll be back with the next two rounds as well as a superflex spin at the end.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
