Twitter Observations: Free Agent Frenzy
Despite bad news in every other part of the world (and Twitter), the NFL gave dynasty players a reprieve as free agency finally opened. There was a flurry of activity that included big names getting cut, traded and signed away all of which will have major implications for your dynasty team next year. Below are just a few of those moves and what the initial dynasty effect will be.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
#1 Stunna
DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth round pick go to Cards for David Johnson and a second round pick this year and a fourth round pick next year.
— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) March 16, 2020
Well, that came out of nowhere. DeAndre Hopkins, arguably the best receiver in football, was traded for a relative pittance to the Cardinals where he’ll go from being paired with one young stud at quarterback to another. On the surface, it makes little sense for the Texans to trade a receiver who totaled 1,000 yards in five of his last six seasons with them while also seeing 100-plus targets in four of the last five years. The move now leaves the Texans and quarterback Deshaun Watson with receivers Kenny Stills and Will Fuller who, while talented, simply aren’t as good as Hopkins.
Dynasty Impact: There are a lot of dynasty implications here but let’s just look at Hopkins. He had recently been supplanted in dynasty ADP by Michael Thomas and Davante Adams. It’s fair to say Hopkins should jump Adams now, after Adams’ disappointing season in 2019, and could challenge Thomas for the top spot. Hopkins isn’t yet 28 and enters an offense that’s on the rise led by a quarterback even younger than the 24-year old quarterback he had in Houston! Hopkins is a strong hold and damn near untouchable now.
Johnson Sense
Sources: The #AZCardinals are trading RB David Johnson to the #Texans. Houston takes on some of the salary.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 16, 2020
Welcome to the tweet that started it all. Before we found out what was on the other end of this blockbuster, the news focused on the Cardinals miraculously being able to move on from David Johnson and that albatross of a contract. Not only that but Johnson finds a place he can attempt to regain some of the dynasty value he had before:
Houston doesn’t have 2019 rushing leader Carlos Hyde anymore nor do they have 2018 rushing leader Lamar Miller either. I might normally be concerned about a running back-deficient team adding one in the draft but Houston doesn’t have many picks either.
Dynasty Impact: Johnson’s current position ADP sits in the low 30s or in the mid-RB3 category. This trade will inevitably boost his value because he has a job again. But Johnson is now 28, ancient in running back years, and has looked washed in recent seasons. He cleared more than four yards per carry in just three games last season and hasn’t done so over an entire season in three years. If you have Johnson and can capitalize on this perceived boost to his dynasty value, I would do it before it’s too late.
Jumping Through Hooper
#Falcons free agent TE Austin Hooper, the top player at his position, is headed to the #Browns, per @TomPelissero, @MikeSilver and me. They’ve agreed to terms, he’s the new highest-paid TE.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 16, 2020
Free agency always provides some juicy tidbits such as the fact that Austin Hooper is now the highest-paid tight end in the league. It may not last long but Hooper still managed to turn his 2019 breakout season of 75 receptions, 787 yards and six touchdowns (and a top-ten fantasy finish) into a huge payday. Of course, he joins a Browns team with plenty of pass catchers already such as Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt and fellow (for now) tight end David Njoku.
Dynasty Impact: For Hooper, there are a few signs that this could be a downgrade for his dynasty value. For starters, he may fall behind the playmakers mentioned above. Some will say that he played a similar role in Atlanta with the likes of Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Devonta Freeman also seeing a healthy amount of targets. But Atlanta also led the league in pass attempts last season at about 42 per game. The Browns ranked just 20th while new Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski’s former team in Minnesota – the one he called plays for – finished third-to-last in pass attempts. That doesn’t bode well for Hooper who benefitted from volume rather than skill. His 10.5 yards per reception ranked just 19th among all tight ends with at least 50 targets last season. I would trade Hooper while his value is at his peak in your dynasty leagues.
Feels Like Hurst Time
And another trade! pic.twitter.com/asFJlHLfjM
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 16, 2020
As a consolation prize for losing Austin Hooper, the Falcons went out and traded for Ravens backup tight end Hayden Hurst. Like every other Ravens skill position player, Hurst broke out with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, catching 30 passes (out of only 39 targets!) for 349 yards. Unfortunately for Hurst, he was severely outplayed by fellow Ravens tight end Mark Andrews. Despite being a first-round pick in the same draft as Andrews and playing an identical 457 offensive snaps, Andrews saw 98 targets, more than three times the amount. Needless to say, a move to literally the most pass-happy offense in the NFL in Atlanta should be good for Hurst’s dynasty prospects.
Dynasty Impact: After the Ravens offense subscribed to the ‘rising tide lifts all boats’ aphorism, Hurst saw his dynasty value finally get back to his pre-draft levels of a borderline TE2/3.
There’s also little doubt that his value will only grow from here. Hooper’s 97 targets are there for the taking in addition to the 70 from the recently-cut Devonta Freeman plus the 42 from Mohamed Sanu who was traded mid-season. Atlanta gave up a second-round pick for Hurst which means they now have decent draft capital tied up in him. It’s doubtful Hurst can replicate everything Hooper did last year so he’s not at TE1 yet. After all, he was behind both Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle in Baltimore. But Hurst is a good bet to perform better than his current dynasty ranking which makes him a good value. Using the DLF Trade Analyzer, Hurst is currently worth a late second or early third in rookie drafts. If you can acquire him for that, I would do it.
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