March Mockness

Noah Ballweg

Each month, a handful of DLF writers and staffers participate in dozens of mock drafts coordinated by our very own Ryan McDowell. These mocks create our DLF ADP data, giving you the insight and knowledge to know whether you are “reaching” on a player, or going to miss a guy in the next round. In this article, I will breakdown the differences between my February and March rookie-only mock drafts, highlighting the biggest risers and fallers in our ADP data.

Risers

Denzel Mims, WR Baylor (Feb. ADP: 23.50–>Mar. ADP: 13.00)

Currently ranked at the 13th-best rookie prospect coming into the dynasty field, Mims put on a show at the NFL Scouting Combine, skyrocketing his value. He tested in the 90th percentile or above in the 40-yard dash (4.38 seconds), three-cone-drill (6.66) and broad jump (131″). He is still a lock for the second round of rookie drafts but is inching closer to the first round with a March ADP of 13.00. I was able to snag him with the 2.02 in March, passing on Chase Claypool and Michael Pittman Jr.

AJ Dillon, RB Boston College (Feb. ADP: 26.30–>Mar. ADP: 18.20)

Dillon is going to be a force to be reckoned with in the NFL and should get a real run as a day one starter depending on his landing spot. Dillon is a bruiser of a back at 6’0″, 247-pounds. He currently has a March ADP of 18.20 but is only ranked as the 36th-best incoming rookie. He has great athleticism and speed for his size and has been compared to the likes of Ricky Williams and Nick Chubb. In our February Mock, Dillon was taken at the 3.03 slot but jumped up six spots in March to the 2.09.

Albert Okwuegbunam, TE Missouri (Feb. ADP: 39.60–>Mar. ADP: 33.00)

Okwuegbunam was the fifth tight end taken in our February ADP data. That was until he posted a 4.49 40-yard dash and dropped the mic on the rest of the tight end class. The junior out of Missouri has been a prospect of consistency and should become a great fantasy weapon moving forward. He is ranked as the 32nd-best incoming rookie which lines up with his current 33.00 ADP nicely. Okwuegbunam now is the first tight end being taken off the board in nearly every rookie mock draft.

Chase Claypool, WR Notre Dame (Feb. ADP: 45.70–>Mar. ADP: 29.80)

Claypool had one of the biggest jumps in ADP between February and March, and once again it was due to a terrific outing at the Combine. At 6’4″, 238 pounds, Claypool is one of the largest wide receivers ever drafted. What is more impressive about his size, is what he is physically able to do with it. He tested in the 82nd or higher percentile in seven of eight physical categories including an astounding 4.42 40-yard-dash with a 40.5 inch vertical. Those are Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson type numbers, folks. He is still only ranked as the 41st-best prospect in this incoming fantasy class, but his performance did cause his ADP to nearly double and is now a mid-third-round pick and still rising. He was drafted with the 3.01 in our March Mock.

Fallers

Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina (Feb. ADP: 14.80–>Mar. ADP: 18.40)

Edwards is a terrific NFL prospect out of the University of South Carolina. He missed the Combine due to a broken foot and may miss his pro-day due to the COVID-19 shutdown. While his ADP dropped to 18.40 in March, it is likely to again decrease in April. This is not concerning one bit to me, but rather his value is simply increasing and you will be able to acquire him at a discount.

Tyler Johnson, WR Minnesota (Feb. ADP: 15.80–>Mar. ADP: 23.20)

Johnson’s decision to forgo the NFL Draft may have taken a turn for the worse this week, with the very real possibility of the Minnesota Pro Day being canceled. Johnson was a premier senior prospect with many comparisons to Corey Davis and Tyler Boyd. Johnson is a 200+ reception receiver with great route running ability and dependable hands. He scored 25 touchdowns combined in his final two seasons at Minnesota and will pair very well as a WR2 or WR3 in a receiver-needy offense. In our February Mock, Johnson was selected with the 1.11 pick and has since dropped to the 2.07 in our March Mock.

KJ Hamler, WR Penn State (Feb. ADP: 18.50–>Mar. ADP: 26.40)

Hamler’s ADP dropping from 18.50 in February to 26.40 in March is not necessarily a bad thing for fantasy owners. At 5’8″, 176 pounds, Hamler is an absolute burner down the field and will be a great addition to any offense in day two of the Draft. Unfortunately, Hamler had to withdraw from the Combine competitions due to a hamstring tweak which drops his draft capital among NFL teams. Hamler has sub-4.3 speed and the lower his ADP drops, the better value he will be on your roster moving forward. He averaged nearly 17 yards per catch in his two seasons at Penn State and has a great College Market Share rating at just 20 years old.

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My Mock Drafts

February

1.10: Justin Jefferson, WR LSU

2.10: Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR Michigan

3.10: Lynn Bowden, WR Kentucky

4.10 Dee-Jay Dallas, RB Miami

March

1.02: D’Andre Swift, RB Georgia

2.02: Denzel Mims, WR Baylor

3.02: KJ Hill, WR Ohio State

4.02: Quintez Cephus, WR Wisconsin