Best Available Free-Agent Targets For Your Dynasty Teams

An NFL roster is a system of many moving parts and over the next two months, with the NFL Draft and Free Agency, many of the players on your dynasty roster could lose an incredible amount of value. We are targeting the best available free agents at every position as the market nears its commencement. In doing so, we will look at ADP trends, recent trades, and current trade values to help you decide which roster moves you may need to make going forward.

Buckle up, because the real March madness is about to begin.

Quarterbacks

Teddy Bridgewater (ADP: 239, QB29)

This one still has me shook. Bridgewater (who will be a starting quarterback in 2020) currently has a lower ADP than Marcus Mariota. What this suggests to me is he can be had for fairly cheap in superflex leagues right now, and may even be available on waivers in single quarterback leagues.

In the five games he started in place of Drew Brees in 2019, Bridgewater led the Saints to a 5-0 record, while averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game. Even more impressive were his nine touchdowns to just two interceptions. He is a proven winner in the NFL, and while he may be flashy and carry an offense, the six-year pro is efficient and gets the job done.

Using DLF’s Trade Analyzer Tool, Bridgewater’s current value in superflex leagues is comparable to that of a mid-late second-round pick. In superflex ADP, Bridgewater holds a value of 135 (early 12th) which is between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jordan Love. This price and ADP value is sure to soar in almost every league when Bridgewater does sign. I would highly advise making a trade before the beginning of free agency.

Possible landing situations that I have seen include Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Indianapolis – all teams that have plenty of weapons to surround Bridgewater with.

Dak Prescott (ADP: 74.17, QB5)

Despite the load of talent and depth that the Cowboys had in 2019 they surprisingly have some of the toughest off-season decisions to make as free agency nears. While Jerry Jones may be thinking about Dez Bryant while in the shower, his attention should be more closely turned towards his potential franchise quarterback, Dak Prescott.

Prescott is entering his fifth year in the NFL and up to this point has commanded a 30 million dollar per year contract that he feels he is deserving of. In the last four seasons, the former fourth-round draft pick has thrown 97 touchdowns, 36 interceptions (1.7 interception rate) and has added over 1,000 yards on the ground with 21 rushing touchdowns.

Prescott’s 74.17 ADP is his highest ranking since 2017 and he can currently be taken in startups after the sixth round.

When you compare Prescott’s average fantasy points per game in comparison with the two quarterbacks who were taken three rounds ahead of him, it is clear and evident that the Cowboys have some incredible value on their hands at quarterback. Specifically, in his contract year, Prescott averaged four more fantasy points per game than he had in each of the previous three seasons.

Prescott’s value seems pretty stable as the QB5 at the moment, but if the Cowboys do decide to move on, there is no telling what type of offense he would be acclimating too.

Here are two recent trades that Prescott owners have been able to take advantage of in superflex leagues.

Running Back

Melvin Gordon (ADP: 40.83, RB14)

As the current RB14 in DLF’s ADP rankings, Gordon is being somewhat undervalued heading into the 2020 off-season. While many owners will likely wait to trade Gordon until he signs with a team if you can acquire him now before his price increases you won’t be disappointed. As my fellow DLF writer reminded us all, Gordon will not only be a day one starter for an NFL franchise, he will also be taking a spot away from an incoming rookie.

Friendly reminder that Melvin Gordon is going to take one of those coveted 2020 Rookie RB landing spots.

— Ray G (@RayGQue) March 6, 2020

Gordon is still being taken in the mid-fourth round of startup drafts, but one thing to note is his ADP is almost interchangeable with that of Todd Gurley. Both backs were drafted in the 2015 NFL Draft, but it is safe to say that right now, Gurley’s value is spiraling down, while Gordon is nearly certain to maintain his value or even increase into the third round. Meaning, that if you currently own Gordon you should not have any trouble getting a decent return when/if you decide to sell.

Using DLF’s Yearly Data Table App, I have selected the three most productive backs in the 2015 class. Gordon, Gurley and David Johnson. All three had disappointing 2019 seasons, but Johnson and Gurley’s downfall was due to injury, while Gordon was simply holding out for a contract.

Despite not playing until week five, and sharing the backfield with the RB4, Gordon’s rushing points per opportunity were nearly identical to Gurley’s with nearly 100 less rushing attempts. Whether Gordon is on your roster or not, he is a player whose value is certain to rise before the start of the 2020 season, and you should be able to get a decent return for him.

Kareem Hunt (ADP: 82.33, RB22)

Believe it or not, despite playing only eight games in 2019. Hunt outperformed Nick Chubb in every receiving category and had higher rushing points per opportunity percentages. No, I am not saying I would choose Hunt over Chubb, nor am I saying that the Browns mishandled the running back situation. What I am saying however is, Hunt reminded us in the eight games he was able to appear in, the impact that he has on an offense no matter what role he plays in.

This is important to note as Hunt becomes a restricted free agent this off-season. With Kansas City, Hunt finished as the RB5 as a rookie, and the RB8 in his second season, despite missing the final stretch of games due to suspension. Even while missing eight games in 2019, Hunt finished as the RB25 with only 43 carries. However, he averaged nearly five receptions per game which has always been a game-changing factor in his skill set.

The Browns have reportedly tendered Hunt for the 2020 season, which likely will result in him being a Brown for another season. While he may be stuck behind a top-five running back, Hunt will still have a solid grasp in the snap percentage since he is a much more efficient weapon in the passing game.

Hunt is currently being valued on DLF’s Trade Analyzer as the 1.10 in 2020 rookie drafts. I would be surprised if you found an owner who would be willing to separate with that pick at this point in the year. If you are a Hunt owner, I am advising that you hold on the 24-year-old as he could climb into the top 20 running backs this season.

Wide Receiver

Robby Anderson (ADP: 109.83, WR46)

Anderson is set to be a high-value free agent when the free agency market opens up next week. In a very strong free agency class, the wide receiver position appears to be the weakest, which should bode well for Anderson who has a specific skill set that teams will be looking for.

Anderson has seen his ADP drop from 74.83 (seventh round) in September, down to 109.83 (tenth round) in February. He is a great target to acquire right now as a player who has outperformed his ADP ranking in three of his four seasons in the NFL. Yes, Anderson has regressed since his breakout season in 2017. However, he has proved to be a consistent 90 reception receiver with high touchdown upside.

If acquired by a team that will utilize his speed on the outside correctly, Anderson could once again climb into the top 25-30 range of receivers in 2020. I like the idea of buying low on Anderson right now, as his approximated ADP value is going to rise in March and April after free-agent signings.

Using DLF’s Trade Analyzer, you can see that Anderson is currently being value somewhere near the 2.05 in rookie draft picks. This being said, I have seen many more trades being dealt in the last two months that have included Anderson for third-round picks straight up. Your buying window is now open.

Emmanuel Sanders (ADP: 167.50, WR60)

Sanders somehow found the fountain of youth in 2019 and looks to be ready to go for an 11th NFL season in 2020. If you are a contending dynasty team heading into the off-season, Sanders is a buy-low candidate who should add some great depth and stability to your roster at a low price.

In the seven seasons when ranked by DLF’s ADP, Sanders has over-performed vastly in six of those years. Most notably being the WR18 in 2018 and the WR44 in 2019 at 32 years old. One of my favorite DLF Tools is the ADP/Rank vs PPG chart. This tool allows you to see how players performed in comparison to where they have been drafted or ranked. It not only allows you to get an idea for how the experts value a certain player but also can help you predict what type of output you may get from a player based on his averaged history.

Here are two recent trades from the past few days that I would have no problem accepting. The first is likely a contending team looking to acquire Sanders’ upside and dependability. The second would be an excellent trade to make if you were the owner of Sanders and looking to rebuild.

Tight End

Austin Hooper (ADP: 80.33, TE6)

Hooper is the best available tight end amongst all free agents and incoming rookies. Period. At 25 years old, he finished as the TE6 in 2019, hauling in 75 of 97 targets (77% catch rate), including six touchdowns.

His ADP value climbed as high as 62.5 (sixth round) in December and now it should plateau around the current value of 80.33 over the off-season. As a consistent 70+ reception tight end, Hooper should be sold/acquired for no less than a first-round pick, especially in TE-Premium leagues.

Hooper did play in a high volume passing offense, but he also shared the targets with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley over the last two seasons and still managed 146 receptions, 1,147 yards, and ten touchdowns. I am holding on to Hooper in 2020, expectant that he will get a great paycheck elsewhere and continue his high output over the next several seasons, even if he returns to Atlanta.

Eric Ebron (ADP: 213.67, TE21)

Ebron is a great buy-low candidate, whose ADP just a year ago was 87.17 (eighth round). Now, dropping as low as the 19th round in start-up drafts, Ebron could add some very much needed depth to your dynasty roster at a low price. He may even be available in some of your free agency pools.

After setting career highs in every statistical category in 2018, the 26-year-old regressed significantly in 2019, appearing in only 11 games and posting 31 receptions.

It will be another fresh start for Ebron in 2020, as he is set to become a free agent and I have seen a lot of interest from the Chicago Bears, as well as the Dallas Cowboys. Each opportunity here would certainly give Ebron a starting role and given that he is healthy he should put up top 25 numbers. Buy low on Ebron if you can.