What is Josh Allen’s IDP Dynasty Value?

Johnny Kinsley

There are few things in sports as annoying as two players in the same league with the exact same first and last name. Such is the case with Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Josh Allen, who shares the same name with certain Bills quarterback.

What isn’t annoying is Allen himself. In the midst of a bleak off-season for the Jaguars (including entering it without Jalen Ramsey, AJ Bouye, and potentially Yannick Ngakoue), the second-year pass rusher has been a major bright spot for a defense that’s seen a lot of recent changes. He was in the running for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and may have won it if not for a sensational season from 49ers’ defensive end Nick Bosa.

Allen secured himself as a major cornerstone for Sacksonville, putting up 31 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 11.5 TFL, and 23 QB hits. As is common in these articles, we’ll use FantasyData’s rankings to determine how well he did. Oddly enough, they had him as the DL19 in 2019, and his 106.55 fantasy points were the 80th-most among all defenders.

As a dynasty writer, however, I’m not concerned about how well he’ll do in dynasty since he’s already established that and then some. A greater concern for me is how the Jaguars will replace Ngakoue on the edge since he seems intent on no longer playing for them. Calais Campbell is more than capable of playing this role, but he’ll be 34 in September, and also tends to play a lot of snaps as an interior defender as well.

But I digress, as that topic is for another time. While we’re here, let’s look at some of the tape to signal the flashes Allen had in his rookie season, as there were enough to get him just over double-digit sacks on the year.

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It’s hard for rookie pass rushers to avoid securing coverage sacks, which occur when the QB is forced to hold onto the ball for longer than intended. On one hand, it rewards the pass rusher with a boost in his statistics, which is obviously a good thing. On the other hand, it’s generally frowned upon because it isn’t a good example of the defender’s skill set, having more to do with coverage down the field.

I’d be lying if I said Allen didn’t have a few coverage sacks in his rookie season, but that’s not to say he didn’t make impressive plays as well. As shown below, he proved to the Jaguars why they were so fortunate to have him land in their hands.

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Allen is used on a stunt along with Calais Campbell. He’s quick on this play, pushing his way past the left guard on his way to Kyle Allen, who he brings down for his only sack of the game.

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Allen’s move here is more impressive. Against Bengals right tackle Bobby Hart, he uses a fierce counter chop to create outside leverage for himself as he goes to take Andy Dalton down. What sells this is the acceleration Allen gets after taking two steps off the snap; With this, Hart simply doesn’t react in time to stop the rookie’s technique.

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Allen could certainly use refinement in his craft (as is the case for 99.9% of rookies, mind you), though he also comes with plenty of power, as shown on this snap against Raiders backup tackle Brandon Parker.

Notice the subtle stutter step Allen uses after a few steps off the snap; This allows him to release the acceleration he was storing up, giving him momentum against Parker as he uses his power to push the tackle into quarterback Derek Carr, creating pressure. Eventually, Allen is able to take down Carr for the sack.

You can’t trust the Jaguars front office to satisfy their players, but you can trust Josh Allen to build on such a promising rookie season and give the defense hope during a time where it seems like everyone from the defense’s glory days from 2017 is gone. He’s an impressive pass rusher, one that can use vicious moves such as the counter chop and power rush to perfection at times.

As of this writing, Allen isn’t the kind of defender who can be drafted around the eighth-tenth rounds of a typical dynasty draft, but that’s for the best, as in later rounds you can get him at a cold bargain steal. The search for a new pass rusher to hold the fort if/when Ngakoue departs Jacksonville could make it tough for Allen to rack up massive numbers, but he’s more than capable of getting himself under speed after a year in an NFL defense.

If you’re getting mixed signals based on my thoughts about Allen and Ngakoue, then consider this: Draft Josh Allen if you’re hungry for a young pass rusher with loads of potential. Depending on where you select him, you most likely will not regret it.

johnny kinsley