2020 Dynasty Capsule: Seattle Seahawks
Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
The Seattle Seahawks 2019/20 season ended when another dizzying rally by Russell Wilson came up short in the divisional round of the playoffs. Seattle showed signs of improvement in 2019, but injuries down the stretch derailed the team. Can the Seahawks surround Wilson with more talent and improve a defense that was a shadow of the Legion of Boom? With pick 27 in the 2020 NFL Draft and nearly $45 million in cap space, the team has a chance to build on a strong 2019.
Let’s start at the top with the coach, whose mentality has set the tone in Seattle for the past decade.
HEAD COACH
PETE CARROLL
Age: 68
Carroll was signed to an extension at the end of the 2018 season that will keep him in Seattle through the 2021 season. Coach Carroll would be coaching into his 70s if he hangs around till the end of the contract that pays him nearly $11 million a year. A decade as the coach of the Hawks has brought about two trips to the Super Bowl and lots of winning. Already the oldest coach in the NFL, he doesn’t show any signs of slowing down.
QUARTERBACK
Russell Wilson (ADP: 70.83, QB5)
Age: 31
Wilson has seen a good climb in his ADP since the start of 2019. The addition of DK Metcalf and the continued efficiency of Wilson making the most of limited volume has kept the Seattle quarterback as a valued asset. With an off-season that has heard him pushing for more playmakers and better philosophy, could he improve on a strong 2019 season?
Russ is just as frustrated as we are with the situation of the Seahawks offense.
He uses the Chiefs and Andy Reid as an example of how he wants to do things.
Says they will try to figure it out. Hopefully he gets the coaching staff to change things up. One can only hope. pic.twitter.com/qQDovEGeOB— vountee (@vountee) February 2, 2020
Seattle’s passing volume, and its run-first offense has long held back Wilson from becoming a truly ascended fantasy talent. Wilson threw the third-most pass attempts in his career in 2019, despite Seattle having the third-most rush attempts per game in 2019. He continued his efficient ways with a 66.1 percent completion percentage, his second-most passing yards in a season, and third-most touchdowns. His touchdown percentage was bottom three in his career at just six percent and he continued his talent of limiting turnover with a paltry five interceptions on the season.
Wilson has been a stellar example of health, having never missed a game in eight seasons. His rush attempts (75) took another decline in 2019, as he had nearly 20 fewer rush attempts than in 2017, though a slight uptick from 2018 which was the lowest number of his career (67). He did, however, get in the end zone three times for fantasy owners.
2020 and beyond
Seattle currently only has one quarterback signed on its roster for the 2020 season, Wilson, and likely will look to bring in cheap competition for the backup spot in the off-season. Geno Smith backed up Wilson last year and, depending on cost, likely will be brought in to do the same this season. The team has traditionally looked towards cheaper options behind Wilson, who is the highest-earning quarterback in the league.
Wilson continues to hold value in fantasy as his ADP shows. He is not cheap to be acquired.
RUNNING BACK
Chris Carson (ADP: 80.83, RB20)
Age: 25
Chris Carson has been a consistent performer for your fantasy teams when he’s been healthy. In his three professional seasons, he is yet to play in all 16 games and he will be entering 2020 coming off a hip injury. It has been reported that he suffered a fractured hip during the week 16 game against the Arizona Cardinals. Luckily it is said that he did not need surgery and the team expects him to be ready for the start of the season.
Entering his fourth season, health seems to be the biggest question mark for the seventh-round draft pick. He has gone over 1,000 rushing yards the previous two seasons and was on pace to double his targets and receptions in the receiving game as well. Carson is the team’s favored back, even after Seattle spent a first-round pick on Rashaad Penny in the 2018 NFL Draft.
But, what about the fumbling problems?
Carson put the ball on the turf seven times in 2019 and lost four of them to the other team. Even with the fumbles, the team kept him as the main RB as he had 736 snaps to Penny’s 152, maintaining nearly 49 percent of the snap share. During a three-game stretch from weeks nine through 12 of the season, Carson fumbled four times. This led to a slight uptick in snaps for Penny in weeks 12 and 13. In week 12 against the Eagles, he would only get eight total carries as Penny took over. However, Penny – who has had his own troubles staying healthy since coming to Seattle – went down with a knee injury in week 14. Carson finished the season strong before he too succumbed to injury.
2020 and beyond
Carson was a solid and consistent producer in 2019. Not flashy, but with continued production in the passing game, Carson can be a solid low-end RB1 in fantasy. Injury concerns will follow him into the off-season and with his price dropping, he could be an easy buy in fantasy.
Carson is entering the final year of his contract and is on a very team-friendly deal of $2.16 million. Where does the team go beyond 2020 with Carson depends on his health. The team likes Carson and he fits the scheme but will they commit to him long term? With his health in question, it is hard to predict much long term. He will be turning 26 in September and it is hard to see a team committing too much money to a back coming off a fractured hip and concerns about his ability to finish a season.
Rashaad Penny (ADP: 131.67, RB31)
Age: 24
So nice, Penny did it twice! 💰
Q4: SEA 34, MIN 17 https://t.co/ab3OALBMIO
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 3, 2019
Penny flashed the potential in 2019 that made him a first-round pick the year prior. He looked good in his limited opportunities and, as discussed, was starting to come on strong as the team seemed to be making a move from Carson. As discussed, when Carson was struggling to hold on to the ball, Penny saw a two-week stretch with 33 touches for 236 total yards and three touchdowns.
Penny’s stock
The Seattle RB situation is a key look at “running backs don’t matter” as the first-rounder has failed to unseat the seventh-rounder. Even when the team clamored that it was a good pick and teams attempted to trade for him on draft day, there were issues. Penny showed up overweight to his first camp and suffered a finger injury that set him back.
Penny is a value in dynasty now as the owner who likely spent a high first-round pick on the player has not seen any return in investment. A quick look through the DLF Trade Finder shows that Penny can be had at a value.
News from Pete Carroll at the NFL Scouting Combine is that the team expects Penny to start training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list. With that news and the fact Penny suffered the injury so late in the year, it is hard to get excited about his 2020 opportunities.
Penny’s future
Penny is on his rookie contract through 2021. It is important to note that the Detroit Lions reportedly had reached out to Seattle and offered a third-round pick for the running back before the trade deadline. It sounded like the team was listening to offers and likely wanted something earlier in day two. Penny has not endeared himself to the team and needs to get on the field to start commanding snaps.
Travis Homer (ADP: 216.33, RB81)
Age: 21
Homer was active for all 16 games and started the final game of the season when Carson and Penny were lost for the year. He finished the year with 18 carries and 11 receptions on 13 targets. Currently, Homer is the only healthy RB on the roster signed to a contract with the team in 2020. He is little more than depth in the deepest of leagues for fantasy players.
WIDE RECEIVER
DK Metcalf (ADP: 39.17, WR15)
Age: 22
DK Metcalf erased doubts about his NFL future quicker than he ran the three-cone drill at the 2019 Combine. With his 2019 production, he has rocketed up the draft board seeing his ADP steadily rise since August/September drafts before the season.
Few players have the size and speed that Metcalf does. He became just the 21st rookie since 2000 to post more than 900 receiving yards in a rookie year.
Man vs zone splits
DK Metcalf made this look so easy. With his size and athleticism, he should dominate single coverage in the red zone as his career goes along. https://t.co/OQmVrlVbld
— Joe Fann (@Joe_Fann) December 31, 2019
As frustrating as the Seattle offense can be at times, they utilized Metcalf and optimized his situations with what he does well. Very few DBs are built like the 6-3, 228-pound WR and fewer can match his size and speed combination. In the playoffs against the Eagles, he was able to light up man coverage for a massive game. He scored a majority of his touchdowns against man coverage and during the season saw a large split being targeted predominantly in man coverage.
2020 and beyond
Metcalf has become a favorite target of Wilson’s and that should continue. He is under contract through the 2023 season. The only negative to his game in 2019 was the three fumbles and a drop rate around seven percent. He stated he was dedicating the off-season to cleaning up this part of his game. Another off-season working with Wilson and a healthy training camp should be a boost for him.
Tyler Lockett (ADP: 54.4, WR 26.67)
Age: 27
A “healthy” Lockett had a nice jump back into the fantasy discussion. He went over 1,000 yards receiving and finished as a high-end WR2 in fantasy for his owners.
Lockett did deal with a shin injury that occurred in week 12 against the 49ers. Leading up to the Monday night game in San Francisco, he was averaging eight targets, about six receptions and around 85 receiving yards with six touchdowns in those nine games. In that game, he posted a paltry stat line of three receptions on four targets for 26 yards. After the injury, his production dropped to an average of about five targets per game, three receptions, and 44 receiving yards with only two touchdowns in six games.
While Metcalf was shining in man coverage, it was Lockett who put up numbers and excelled in any type of coverage. While not as out of this world as he was in 2018 when Wilson posted a QB rating of 158.3 targeting him in zone coverage, he still produced. Lockett had a career day against the porous Buccaneers defense who attempted to cover him in man coverage throughout the game.
John Ursua and the rest
Age: 26
Currently, the back end of the Seahawks WR depth chart is made up of seventh-round selection John Ursua and two undrafted free agents in Cody Thompson and Penny Hart. Drafted in 2019, Ursua is a sneaky older player and just turned 26 years old according to ESPN data.
Ursua is the only one of these to see a target in a game situation. None of these players figures to hold value for fantasy owners.
DRAFT, FREE AGENCY, Josh Gordon…
Would love some closure on why the Patriots got rid of Josh Gordon, who would’ve been clearly their best WR (via @Seahawks) https://t.co/5RV0O5ted7
— 12up (@12upSport) December 15, 2019
With four draft picks in the first three rounds and multiple compensation picks, Seattle has the draft capital to land a player at some point in the draft. With the new CBA possibly doing away with suspensions for Marijuana, could the team bring back Josh Gordon?
Gordon will be an unrestricted free agent in 2020 if he is reinstated. With the unknowns of the CBA, it is a lot of speculation at the time of writing with Gordon.
The Seahawks have a massive amount of cap space available, estimated around $45 million according to overthecap.com. With a large amount of that cap space likely going towards the defense, I don’t see them targeting any of the top-end options. Early reports are that they are unlikely to re-sign Jaron Brown while local media is uncertain with David Moore.
With a large amount of draft capital, I figure the team will look to target WR in the draft. Possibly even multiple WRs similar to the 2019 NFL Draft when they selected Metcalf, Ursua and Gary Jennings who was released in-season.
TIGHT END
Will Dissly (ADP: 211.5, TE 28.83)
Age: 23
Dissly peaked at the start of 2019 after coming back from a patellar tendon rupture that ended his rookie year in 2018. Then a knee sprain in week two caused concern for fantasy owners and unfortunately shortly after, he had an Achilles tendon tear that ended his 2019 season.
He started strong in five full games, compiling 23 receptions on 27 targets for 262 receiving yards and four touchdowns. With the Seahawks running their run based read-option offense, having a tight end that can attack the middle of the field is key to success. The run portion of the offense forces linebackers to play up and forces a tight end to be a viable inline blocker while being able to get behind the defenses, forces a defense to play, honestly. This means fewer stacked boxes for the run game.
Currently, the team is expecting Dissly to be ready for week one of the season. Similar to last season he could be had for cheap and likely as a throw-in as seen in the DLF Trade Finder.
Greg Olsen (ADP: 239.5, TE 31.8)
Age: 34
Olsen signed a one-year, seven million dollar contract after he was released by the Panthers. With the health concerns of Dissly and little depth behind Jacob Hollister who is a free agent, it made sense for the team to bring in a cheap veteran option. Olsen – if healthy – could be a decent compiler of stats. His days of high TE1 value are behind him as he will be turning 35 before the season starts and staying healthy hasn’t been his strong suit either as he has not played a full 16 game season since 2016.
General manager John Schneider also made mention of bringing back Luke Willson at the TE spot. He holds little to no value in any fantasy leagues. Look for Seattle to add more depth to the position
Thank you for reading. I’m on Twitter @_PeteLaw.
Pete is a Western Washington University (Go Vikings! Undefeated at Football since 2009!) History grad with a doctorate in dynasty football, from a certificate he bought online. He prefers stats and analytics but realizes film grinding is an important part of the process. Dabbles in "Mild Takes" and believes in the process.
