ADP Trends: Second-Round Sell-High Wide Receivers

Drew Osinchuk

In this edition of ADP trends, we are going to look at wide receivers who boomed for ADP (gained more than 12 spots in startup ADP from May of their rookie year to the following May) and were drafted in the second round of dynasty rookie drafts.

We are looking to see how often these players provide further value gains (ADP), how often they turn into productive fantasy contributors (top-24 WR seasons), and if there are any trends between the ones who succeed and the ones who do not succeed.

First, let’s take a look at the players who boomed from the second round:

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As you scroll through this list, there are a few players who you absolutely should have kept and a few who were screaming sell-highs in hindsight. Let’s dive in.

Production Hit Rate

In looking at hit rates, I like to use two top-24 seasons or more to eliminate the one-hit wonders.

So far we have five hits from this list: Jordy Nelson, DeSean Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders, Alshon Jeffery, and Cooper Kupp. It is quite likely that Chris Godwin has at least one more as well which would put us up to six (feel free to add whomever YOU think will get there among the more recent picks). So that would give us a hit rate of 6/24 = 25%.

Comparatively, the overall hit rate for wide receivers drafted in the second round is 8/56 = 14%. The two extra hits are from Marvin Jones and Michael Gallup. Gallup hasn’t hit yet but in a similar fashion to Godwin, I think he will. It should be noted that Gallup had a stable ADP and thus did not qualify as a boom. Jones, on the other hand, lost 39 spots in startup ADP after his rookie year. He is very much an outlier from this perspective.

Finding the Hits

Draft capital – Our group of six hits were all drafted in the top three rounds of the NFL Draft.

Production – They were all mega producers at the college level.

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Lessons learned

1) If a wide receiver drafted in the second round of dynasty rookie drafts does not boom in year one, they are basically toast. Among the total 56 wide receivers selected, only one of them busted in year one and then hit for career production. Oof.

2) Only six of our 24 year-one booms actually went on to fantasy success. That is not a terrific hit rate, but it’s much higher than the hit rate overall from the second round.

3) If we are looking for long-term producers, the same things ring true when prospecting. Production and draft capital are a good place to start.

Value Hit Rate

So maybe it is unlikely that we get a valuable producer from the second round, but maybe we can just make a quick buck through value gains. Unfortunately, only five of our 26 (19%) year-one boomers gained value again in year two. They were; Jackson, Jeffery, Donte Moncrief, Kupp, and Godwin.

The only player who we haven’t talked about already is Donte Moncrief. He actually looks a lot like our successful group. He was a second-round NFL Draft pick and he was productive in college but for whatever reason, he just didn’t fire at the NFL level. #swingandamiss

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Lessons Learned

1) There isn’t really a value gain to be had here. Production and value tend to go hand-in-hand at this point in a player’s career.

What about the misses

You might be thinking, “well yeah, of course highly-drafted, productive college players are the ones hitting! Nobody is out here drafting unproductive late-round draft picks!”

This might shock you. A lot of the players in the miss column were unproductive or late-round picks or sometimes both. We’ll look at their production five players at a time for simplicity

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Sidney Rice and Torrey Smith were fairly productive in college. Rice actually put up a top-12 WR season and Smith had a couple of top-36 seasons. The other three players combined for one top-12 season between the three of them. Eddie Royal had one magical season in the NFL. Eddie Royal also had an age-18 breakout which is another production metric that correlates to fantasy points.

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Here are a bunch of non-producers. Among them, Martavis Bryant had one top-24 season and one top-36 season. No big surprises here as a bunch of unproductive players failed to produce.

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Tyler Lockett stands out like a sore thumb on the graphs of the misses. There is still a decent shot that he ends up a hit. He certainly looks like the hits from a market share of receiving yards perspective and he has had one top-24 and one top-36 seasons. Kelvin Benjamin also had a single top-24 season.

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These are the last three and I don’t see any of them hitting for fantasy purposes at this point. Tre’Quan Smith might be worth a flier though if you are still a believer. Two of our production hits; Nelson and Sanders, both faltered for ADP purposes in their second year and then went on to fantasy stardom.

So in short, “yes, people DO draft unproductive players all the time”.

Draft Capital

But what about draft capital?!?! Most of the players selected here were taken on day one or two of the NFL Draft. The exceptions are; Malcolm Mitchell, Martavis Bryant, and Denarius Moore.

Final Thoughts

As you can see, draft capital and production are important to hit rates for both value and production. You can use this in your upcoming 2020 rookie drafts as well as in determining what to do with your sophomore wide receivers with second-round ADP. Let’s look at the 2019 class now.

ADP Trend

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As you can see, only Marquise Brown was a boom in year one. Andy Isabella, Kelvin Harmon and Miles Boykin busted and Mecole Hardman didn’t really move.

Production

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Isabella and Harmon are the only two who were appealing from market share of receiving yards perspective.

Draft Capital

Harmon was a day-three selection in the NFL draft going in the sixth-round to Washington. The other four were taken within the first three rounds of the NFL draft.

What to do with them?

I am selling all five guys. The only one who looks like the hits was Andy Isabella and he busted in year one. So what can we realistically hope to get for them?

Mecole Hardman, WR KC

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Mecole Hardman broke even on ADP trends but was wildly unproductive in college. His unexpected round two selection to play in a Patrick Mahomes-led passing game led to Hardman quickly rocketing up dynasty draft boards. He then carried that over with 26 receptions and 538 receiving yards specializing in the deep ball. This is not a profile I want to chase even if it is attached to Mahomes. I am cashing in my profit and trying to get a less risky player at the tail end of the first round in 2020 rookie drafts.

Marquise Brown, WR BAL

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Brown is a lot like Hardman in that he is an unproductive speedster. He was the only viable wide receiver option in an offense who featured the league MVP in Lamar Jackson and yet somehow Brown came away with only 46 receptions for 584 yards. The fact that he doesn’t look anything like our successful group tells me that he should be a screaming sell.

I also haven’t mentioned size to this point because for most players it wasn’t an issue among our failures or success but Marquise Brown is just entirely too small for my liking. He is 5’9 and 166 pounds. I do not have any close comps for him. DeSean Jackson was an inch taller and ten pounds heavier which puts him an entirely different BMI class. Brown was and is a risky bet to make it.

Andy Isabella, WR ARI

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If I can trade Isabella for a late 2020 second or a future second, I would do that all day. Isabella is a likely bust at this point and rerolling on a late second is a pretty great outcome all things considered.

It should also be noted that I had Isabella in my bulletproof tier as a prospect if you’ve been following along with that. It doesn’t matter. He is still a sell.

Kelvin Harmon, WR WAS

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Harmon was actually a player I really liked before the NFL draft but as soon as he slid past the end of round three it was time to give him a big drop in your dynasty rankings. I would be looking for the Terry McLaurin owner and offering him Harmon as “insurance” for a future third.

Miles Boykin, WR BAL

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Boykin was an athletic freak who just didn’t produce in college. Things get harder in the NFL so it is tough for a player who couldn’t dominate against lesser players and with lesser teammates to dominate in the NFL. This always made him a long shot. If you can get a future third for him, I’d strongly consider it.