2020 NFL Free Agency Dynasty Preview: Quarterback
This time next week, dynasty fantasy football players will be fully engulfed by free agency frenzy. The excitement and activity that comes about when players change teams is one of the best parts of following sports, but in many years, the mid-March free agency period ends up being a cruel joke. Players are franchised or re-signed and the “big names” rarely actually move.
This year feels different.
In this series, I’ll provide an overview of the upcoming free agency period, focusing on the neediest teams at each position and the players who are (or could be) on the open market.
First up, the quarterback position. If you agree with my perception that top free agents rarely change teams, that is even more true at the quarterback position. NFL teams realize just how difficult it is to find an adequate starting quarterback, that when they do, or even think they might have, they hold on (and overpay) dearly. This year is the perfect storm. Thanks to some teams being suddenly willing to move on from their average signal-callers and other teams being unable to come to terms with their studs, the quarterback free agent class is better than ever before, and we could ultimately see one-third of the league with a new starter in 2020.
Holes to Fill
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have already made it known that veteran Philip Rivers won’t be back and he took his family and left town. That leaves the team with another vet, Tyrod Taylor, as the presumed starter entering free agency. With a top-ten pick in the NFL Draft, the Chargers have options. They could use that pick on Justin Herbert or Jordan Love and let Taylor start until the young guy is ready. That’s a role that Taylor is used to, having done the same with Baker Mayfield in Cleveland.
New England Patriots
The top story of the off-season is just what future Hall of Famer Tom Brady will decide in his first real opportunity on the open market. Most reports suggest he won’t be back in New England. If that’s the case, the Patriots could suddenly be looking at a rebuilding period. Of course, the options are plentiful. Current Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has routinely been mentioned as a possibility in New England. Dynasty owners also seem to be totally forgetting Jarrett Stidham. He’s worth a prospective pick-up as we watch this process unfold.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While head coach Bruce Arians hasn’t come out and admitted that embattled free agent Jameis Winston won’t be back in town, all signs point to that being the case. Winston entered the record books as the first 30/30 quarterback as interceptions and poor decision-making continue to mar his career. That might have been the final straw for Arians. Rivers, who moved his family cross-country to Florida, has been mentioned as an option. Dynasty owners of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin should be cheering for Winston to stay in town.
Tennessee Titans
After finally giving up on former second-overall pick Marcus Mariota, the Titans got surprisingly elite play from Ryan Tannehill, who had previously been viewed as a bust himself. After leading the Titans deep into the playoffs, Tannehill is now looking for a big payday. It makes sense for him to stay in town, but the Titans are at least flirting with Brady, as their head coach Mike Vrabel is a former teammate of the GOAT. Mariota is also set to enter free agency.
Dallas Cowboys
This one should be easy. Pay the man! Dak Prescott has been a QB1 in each of his four seasons in the league and he has played at a very high level since the acquisition of Amari Cooper in 2018. Now the Cowboys are in danger of losing both. At the very least, Prescott should be tagged to ensure he doesn’t leave town, but it is difficult to predict what owner Jerry Jones will do, especially with a player like Brady also available.
New Orleans Saints
This is all but a formality now. Veteran Drew Brees already announced he’d be returning to the Saints. The two sides just need to make it official next week. Perhaps more interested in how the team handled it’s other two quarterbacks, Taysom Hill and Teddy Bridgewater. They control Hill, who is a restricted free agent, and will reportedly tag him with a first-round tender. Bridgewater is expected to leave town.
Looking for an Upgrade
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers played most of the 2019 season without their longtime starter Cam Newton and he is still not fully healthy. That concern, along with a new coaching staff, could be part of the reason the team is considering dumping Newton and starting fresh. The team also used a top-100 draft pick last year on Will Grier, but he does not seem to be an option at this time.
Chicago Bears
Guys, Mitchell Trubisky is just not it. Trubisky has shown a little upside, but mostly frustrating play in his three years in the league. At this point, it is just a matter of time before he is replaced. The Bears seem set on following the Titans blueprint from last off-season, acquiring a veteran who could push their starter out of a job.
Detroit Lions
I don’t really see this one going anywhere, but there have at least been some rumors that the Lions could move on from starter Matthew Stafford and use the third overall pick to select Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa. This all seems to be a longshot.
Indianapolis Colts
The post-Andrew Luck era began well for the Colts as they were winning, and fill-in Jacoby Brissett played well. That all went away and now the Colts are reportedly considering dumping Brissett and finding a new option. They’ve been linked to Brady and Rivers and the coaching staff has made it clear they like rookie Jordan Love. It’s possible they pull off both moves, adding a vet and a rookie.
Las Vegas Raiders
Much like the Bengals and the Bears, the Raiders have dealt with “just good enough” for years now, in the form of Derek Carr. It feels like a lifetime ago that Carr produced a near-MVP season before suffering a late-season injury. He hasn’t been the same since. The Raiders want to make a splash as they move into their new Vegas digs and that could come in the form of Brady.
San Francisco 49ers
This is another longshot situation, in my opinion, but let’s at least address the rumors. Despite making the Super Bowl with Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers could release him with little or no cap hit and would then sign Brady. Insert Jennifer Lawrence “sure, okay” GIF here.
Now that we’ve looked at the many teams who could be interested in free agent quarterbacks, let’s move our attention to the players themselves.
Currently Available
Dak Prescott
Despite the multitude of opportunities to sign him to a long-term deal, the Cowboys gambled on Prescott and all he did was enjoy a career-year in 2019. The two sides reportedly continue to negotiate, and it would seem that if there is no deal, Prescott will be tagged. It is very doubtful that he actually reaches the open market. Only a wild partnership between Jones and Brady would change that.
Tom Brady
The superstar is seemingly enjoying his freedom, mixing and mingling with every eligible bachelor in town. Of course, you can wager on Brady’s 2020 team with the Patriots still serving as the favorite. After them, the order goes like this: Titans, Raiders, Chargers, 49ers, Buccaneers, Colts, Bears, Cowboys, Dolphins. As big of a story this is for the league, dynasty players should remember that Brady is far past his prime and would be a downgrade for many of those teams, from a fantasy football standpoint.
Jameis Winston
Through much of the season, Winston appeared set to return to the Buccaneers. His performance in the season finale left a bad taste on the mouths of Tampa Bay decision-makers as an overtime pick-six ended the season, and perhaps Winston’s time with the team that made him the top-overall pick years ago. If he walks, the Chargers have been rumored as a potential landing spot, though every team has to be concerned about his decision-making.
Ryan Tannehill
After losing his job in Miami, Tannehill was dealt to the Titans to back up, and ultimately replace, Mariota. That was the best thing that has happened to the former Texas A&M receiver as he enjoyed a career resurgence. Tannehill seems most likely to stay in Tennessee, potentially on a Franchise Tag. Again, seemingly only Brady stands in the way of that happening.
Drew Brees
As mentioned previously, Brees’ return to New Orleans seems to only be a formality at this point. He was deciding between retirement and playing one more year for the Saints.
Philip Rivers
Rivers was set to be a free agent and the Chargers made it clear they were ready to part ways. He has really hit a wall in the past couple of years, struggling both on the field and in fantasy box scores. While he’s been linked to the Colts and Bucs, it is not out of the question that Rivers does not find a starting job. He has reportedly been courted by ESPN for a broadcasting role.
Teddy Bridgewater
Former Vikings starter Bridgewater hit free agency last year but simply found no market. This year could be different as he filled in for an injured Brees, leading the Saints to a 5-0 record during that time. With so many moving pieces on the market, I wonder if Bridgewater could be the one without a seat when the music ends.
Taysom Hill
The Saints continue to suggest Hill can be their starting quarterback of the future. No one else seems to believe that, but they are reportedly placing a first-round tender on Hill. That would almost certainly keep Hill in New Orleans another season.
Marcus Mariota
After flopping in Tennessee, Mariota is looking for a fresh start and hoping to revive his career just as Tannehill did at Mariota’s expense. Given the depth of the free agent (and rookie) class, Mariota won’t land a starting job, but could still find a path to eventual playing time.
Could Hit the Market
Cam Newton, CAR
After only one season outside of the top-14 fantasy quarterbacks, Newton’s 2019 season fell apart almost before it started. Injuries cost him most of the year and the team has voiced concerns about his chance to fully recover. If Newton is eventually released or traded, the Bears have been an oft-rumored landing spot.
Andy Dalton, CIN
After landing the top overall pick, the Bengals are locked in on selecting Heisman winner Joe Burrow and have already made it clear they will part ways with Dalton, their longtime starter. Dalton has become the butt of the joke, the prototypical average quarterback, and that has also been the case in fantasy leagues. After a surprising QB4 finish in 2013, Dalton has scored between the QB17 and QB25 in each of the past six seasons. Deserved or not, landing with the Patriots would boost Dalton’s value and he’s also been mentioned as an option in Chicago, comically being paired with Trubisky.
Jacoby Brissett, IND
The Colts are clearly not comfortable with continued struggles. After the surprise of the Andrew Luck retirement, the team never really recovered. Brissett began the season well but struggled down the stretch and it could cost him his job. If the Colts do replace him, it seems that only a return trip to New England would keep Brissett in a starting role.
Derek Carr, LVR
After six seasons in the league, Carr has never finished as a QB1. The Raiders surprised in 2019 and contended for a playoff spot late into the season. Head coach Jon Gruden simply won’t be patient with this team, which will likely lead him to attempt to upgrade his Carr. If he does hit the market, Carr is young enough that he could land a starting job with another team, but that would not be a guarantee.
Matthew Stafford, DET
As previously mentioned, I don’t think it is very realistic for the Lions to move on from Stafford, especially after he was playing some of the best football of his career in 2019 before suffering an injury. If the Lions somehow go this route, Stafford would be a hot commodity among the many teams mentioned earlier.
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