DLF Roundtable: I Was Wrong

Ryan Finley Posted On March 7, 2020

Here at DLF, we do our best to try to help you win your dynasty and keeper leagues. We really care about your performance. As part of that effort, we have to make a lot of calls throughout each season. Who should you acquire? Who should you avoid? Who should you trade the farm for? We have numerous rankings, tools and other resources to try to help you make the right player evaluations to build the best team. And the truth is, sometimes we get it wrong. And sometimes we get it really wrong.

As we gear up for the 2020 season, we thought it would be worthwhile for us to come clean here and fess up to our bad calls from last season. These are the players some of our writers were wrong about in 2019.

Derrius Guice, RB WAS

Okay, I was probably wrong about Guice. Coming out of college I felt we were getting an extreme discount on a player comparable to Saquon Barkley. I still believe that. What I do not believe is that a running back can go two years without producing due to injury and still command the large majority of the workload in the future. It’s a sad day. – Adam Wilde

Royce Freeman, RB DEN

After a somewhat underwhelming rookie season, I thought the Denver Broncos would want to utilize Freeman’s skillset more and get him more touches. As a life-long Oregonian, I watched Rolls Royce run through the Pac12 for three+ years and thought he possessed an all-around skill set to be a starting running back in the league for a long time. I also assumed that Phillip Lindsay would get injured as a 5’8″ 190-pound RB getting early-down work. I thought Freeman would supplant him in year two and take on a much larger share of the offense. I still have hope that Freeman can turn into something even semi-valuable in dynasty, but as of right now… it doesn’t look promising. Simply put… I was wrong. – Levi Chappell

Josh Rosen, QB MIA

When Rosen was traded to the Miami Dolphins, I was so happy. They were a rebuilding team and they were going to give him the shot he was robbed of in Arizona – my superflex shares I stubbornly held would regain value! Could I predict Ryan Fitzpatrick continuing his magic show in Miami? I’m sorry to anyone who listened to me about Rosen. – Bobby Koch

Sony Michel, RB NE

The signs were all there. Michel saw a huge increase in workload during the 2018-2019 playoffs. Michel eclipsed six rushing touchdowns in three games (including the Super Bowl) in postseason play and averaged 112 rushing yards a game. The Patriots won that Super Bowl relying heavily on Michel and the rushing attack, with Brady and the passing game playing a more complementary role. Michel’s efficiency was at an all-time low this past season (as he didn’t lack opportunity) but was a huge disappointment for fantasy owners. – James Koutoulas

Sony Michel, RB NE

I bought all the way in on Michel. I was adamant that he would have the early-down role locked up (he did) with potential growth in the passing game (he did not). With Sony steamrolling through the playoffs in 2018, racking up touchdown after touchdown, he was going to challenge for the league lead in touchdowns in 2019 (he did not). There was no way that his knee injury was going to keep him out of many games (it did not) therefore he would easily be a dominant force in the fantasy landscape (he was not). Basically I got most of it right except the whole fantasy points thing. Oof. – Drew Osinchuk

Nate Sudfeld, QB PHI

Nate Sudfeld? Yup, Nate Sudfeld. Well, not just Sudfeld, I whiffed on backup QBs league-wide. In superflex leagues, I like to target backup signal-callers who I think will get on the field in hopes of flipping them for future picks after starters inevitably go down with injury. Carson Wentz hasn’t played 16 games in two seasons, and I thought Sudfeld was worth a dart throw. Other misses include the Falcons’ Kurt Benkert and the Packers’ Tim Boyle. I also had a feeling Nick Foles wouldn’t last a full season and grabbed a bunch of Alex McGough and Tanner Lee, only to see Gardner Minshew jump over both of them. To make matters worse, I was offered Ryan Tannehill in several spots, and I foolishly passed on him, even dropping him in one league during the off-season. Sudfeld is the name at the top here, but I was wrong across the board when looking for backups with value. Woof. – John Di Bari

Chris Godwin, WR TBB

Godwin’s overall ADP rose from 58 in December 2018 to 35 last August. Hype within the dynasty community may have even surpassed that rise. I’ve liked Godwin’s profile since his devy days and agreed with the team-wide Bruce Arians bump, but was reluctant to pay the price to acquire him as it rose through the off-season. Well, today the 23-year-old sits at 11th overall in DLF ADP. Last off-season’s price looks like a value. Though the team’s quarterback situation is unresolved, the Bucs have the fourth-most cap space in the league, so should be able to address the position even if they decide to end The Jameis Winston Experience. – Frank Gruber

Robby Anderson, WR NYJ

I wrote Anderson up as a buy entering the 2019 season because I believed quarterback Sam Darnold was an ascending talent. Darnold had had the highest passer rating of any quarterback in the league in December 2018, and Anderson scored 17.6, 22.6, and 32 fantasy points in weeks 14-16 of the 2018 season, respectively. I noted that the Jets signed Jamison Crowder, said I thought he was also undervalued, but wrote off his potential impact on Anderson because of the vastly different roles they play.

A lot went wrong for the Jets this year. Darnold missed time with mono and was inconsistent again upon returning, Crowder was more detrimental to Anderson’s value than I anticipated, and Adam Gase really torpedoed the offense as a whole. I thought I wanted the top pass catcher in an ascending offense, but I was wrong about Anderson being the top pass catcher and about the offense ascending. Having said that – I’m still interested in buying Anderson this off-season as an impending free agent, though my expectations are lower. – Joseph Nammour

Corey Davis, WR TEN

I was dead wrong, unequivocally, completely and fully wrong about Corey Davis in 2019. After a solid 2018, I was on board with his third-year breakout as I was always a big fan of his. I didn’t let the drafting of AJ Brown, or the run-first offense or the limitations of Marcus Mariota hold me back from investing in Davis. Even after the transition to Ryan Tannehill and an explosion of offense, Davis was basically nowhere to be found. I’m honestly not sure where to go from here with Davis but I have a tendency to double down on players I liked when their value bottoms out, so I’ll be buying. – Adam Tzikas

James Conner, RB PIT

I have to take my lumps with this one. There may not have been a bigger proponent of Conner heading into 2019 than me. I was taking him as the RB5 everywhere I could, believing that he would only improve upon his 2018 season. Instead, he was hurt for nearly half the year, playing in only ten games. Between missed time and a horrendous Steelers offense with no Ben Roethlisberger, Conner’s fantasy production was cut in half from 2018. He did produce three top-ten weeks, but those were on the back of scoring four of his seven touchdowns on the year. He was unreliable on a weekly basis as well, only playing on more than 70 percent of the snaps twice during the season. Here’s to a better 2020. – Addison Hayes

Aaron Jones, RB GB

2019 was probably my best year in terms of predicting outcomes, with the exception being Jones. I didn’t think he had the size to carry the load and would be used in a running back by committee at best. No way did I see him amassing 1,400 total yards on only 250 touches. I think this will be his career year as the Packers look to surround Aaron Rodgers with talent, and the 2020 draft is loaded with depth at the running back spot. If there are any Jones owners reading this now, sell high while you can. – Mike Havens

Kerryon Johnson, RB DET

Without a doubt, the player who I was most wrong about in 2019 was Kerryon Johnson. As a rookie, Kerryon flashed in games where the Detroit coaching staff trusted him with more touches and I was smitten with the versatility Johnson showed in the second half of the year. This burned me in 2019 after I made several trades for him and would often wait a few rounds and take him as my first running back in a handful of startups. I’m not the biggest fan of Matt Patricia or Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, but when they said Johnson should be a 60-catch candidate on this team I was all in on the hype. With the Lions letting both LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick go, it seemed like nothing could stand in Johnson’s way if he stayed healthy. Unfortunately, he didn’t and the Lions struggled to establish the run with Johnson only eclipsing 50 yards rushing once in eight games and scoring a measly three touchdowns to boot. Here’s hoping 2020 sees him in better health. – Ryan Parish

Damien Williams, RB KCC

After the departure of Kareem Hunt, the next guy in line was Spencer Ware before Williams ultimately supplanted him. I felt, at best, Williams was a stopgap measure who would ultimately be replaced with a rookie via the NFL Draft or a major free agent signing in the off-season. The level of faith I had in Williams maintaining the job was about as low as one could expect. I added exactly zero shares in the off-season and I even traded away the shares I was lucky enough to acquire in the 2018-2019 season.

However, something funny occurred on the way to me being so sure of myself: I was wrong. Williams ultimately was the starter throughout the 2019-2020 season, albeit splitting carries evenly with LeSean McCoy. He even went on to play a pivotal role in the Chiefs’ first Super Bowl win in roughly 50 years. I can’t say I am tripping over myself to acquire him still, but there are no two ways around it, I was wrong. – TheFFGhost

Baker Mayfield, QB, CLE

All the stars were aligned for Mayfield to build on a great second half from his rookie season, between handpicked head coach Freddie Kitchens, aerial genius Todd Monken, and most of all a shiny new weapon in Odell Beckham Jr to go along with Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, and David Njoku. Somehow, the cracks started to show before training camp even started and it only got worse from there as Mayfield ended up QB27 by PPG – a far cry from his dynasty QB5 pricing. In one particularly painful example, he was purchased for Lamar Jackson and a 2020 first – which unfortunately ended up being 1.05. Mayfield might be a nice post-hype target…if anyone dares… – Tan Ho

Joe Mixon, RB CIN

I detailed Mixon last off-season and projected him to make the leap into the elite stratosphere of running backs. My premise was that Zac Taylor would finally unleash his potential as a receiver in the Rams-style offense (a la Todd Gurley) and add to his upside of being the AFC rushing leader. Alas, the opposite seemed to occur. He did not surpass five targets or 40 receiving yards in a single game in 2019. Even when his workload and production skyrocketed in the second half of the season as a rusher, he remained underutilized as a receiver. He maintains value as a top dynasty running back given his age and skill, but his full potential may not be realized under the current regime. – Thomas Burroughs

Kareem Hunt, RB CLE

There’s no denying that Hunt is a talented running back. We were able to see him operate in a feature back role during his brief tenure with Kansas City Chiefs. When he signed with the Cleveland Browns, I wanted nothing to do with him as I truly believed he would be a Nick Chubb insurance policy only. Best case scenario, he would rebuild his image there and the team would move on from him during the off-season. In Hunt’s return from suspension, he saw nine targets securing seven of those for 44 yards. During the final eight games of the season, he received a total of 44 targets catching 37 of those for 285 yards. While these are not groundbreaking numbers, it does show that Hunt not only had a role but a role that fantasy owners can’t ignore going forward. He’s young, talented and Cleveland wants him to be involved in the offense. – Ray Garvin

Mitchell Trubisky, QB CHI

Maybe it was too much Bears kool-aid, but I really felt Trubisky could take another step and become a strong quarterback in Superflex or two QB formats. He had great rushing totals last season in Matt Nagy’s offense, and surely another year in that system would allow him to take the next step. Boy was I wrong. Trubs instead decided to take three steps back, didn’t run nearly as much as he did last year, and looked terrible week in and week out. He was beaten out by the likes of Andy Dalton, Daniel Jones and Gardner Minshew. I got beaten out by the couple of trades I made to acquire him. – Ryan Finley

These are the players we were flat wrong about in 2019. One of the most interesting things I found is that only one player was a repeat for anyone – Sony Michel. But it’s far from the first time fantasy owners were burned by a New England running back, right? So keep these names in mind as you beat yourself up over your bad calls, we all make them. If it was easy we’d all be champs, and where’s the fun in that? So who was the player you were wrong about in 2019?