2020 Wide Receiver Athletic Comparisons
There’s a lot to unpack from this year’s Scouting Combine which was stuffed to the gills with talent. The wide receiver group is deep and diverse and as a whole performed very well. It’s going to be interesting to see how the results affect player values in dynasty leagues.
Football players are like snowflakes: they are all different in their own way. They are also very similar to one another. Some players are similar in size and athleticism. They can also be very similar when it comes to their on-field traits. By comparing players by their athletic traits, we can develop a picture of how a player may perform on the field.
For this article, I’m using a database that consists of Combine metrics from the past 15 years. I’m filtering the data to provide player comparisons that are close in height and weight. Some players are unicorns and don’t have anyone who compares to them.
Good players can also draw bad player comparisons. Two players can compare athletically but play the game differently. Just because the list of comparisons isn’t desirable for a particular player, doesn’t mean we should devalue that prospect. If anything, it’s a testament that players can be successful with different athletic profiles.
Chase Claypool, Notre Dame
Claypool surprised everyone with his athletic testing. He has size-adjusted speed for days, leading all wide receivers at the Combine with a 134.02 height-adjusted speed score and a 124.7 weight-adjusted speed score. There really isn’t a player who compares to him. Dorial Green-Beckham is about the same size as Claypool, but he’s not as fast and he’s a good seven inches off from Claypool’s vertical.
Since he’s a bigger receiver, he might be more suited for the tight end position. However, his speed, burst, and size suggest that he’s athletic enough to compete at both positions. His versatility will present some added options for him at the next level.
Devin Duvernay, Texas
I’ve said it multiple times on my podcast (The PerfectCast) that Duvernay is a carbon copy of Golden Tate. It’s ironic that they compare athletically. Both players are very aggressive at the point of contact. They both transition into a running back when they get the ball in the open field.
The big drawback to Duvernay is his lack of production. He technically didn’t breakout out until he was a 22-year-old senior. It’s hard to hitch your wagon on a player whose only productive season was in their final year of college. His senior season was very impressive. In 2019 he caught 106 passes for 1,386 yards and nine touchdowns while owning a 26.80 percent target share. He also reeled 84.10 percent of the pass thrown his way.
#Texas WR Devin Duvernay is a flat out STUD.
He leads the nation in receptions per game & has improved his draft stock more than any! 💰💰 pic.twitter.com/Yjzy50Iarl
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) October 26, 2019
His speed will cause major issues for defensive backs who sleep on him. Duvernay’s speed and acceleration off the line of scrimmage allow him to quickly eat cushion between him and the defender. If he can get a step on the defense, then he could be off to the races.
Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty
Gandy-Golden is very fun to watch. His size and strength allowed him to convert highlight-reel style catches with defenders draped all over him. He caught 17 contested catches in 2019. He’s a big-bodied receiver who excels at making plays downfield.
There aren’t very many wide receivers who athletically compare to him. Since he’s from Liberty and plays against a lower level of competition, it’s going to very hard to predict how he will translate to the NFL game. We do know his greatest asset is his size and his strength at the catch point. In the right situation, his skill set could make him a key focal point for his team’s offensive game plan.
Isaiah Hodgins, Oregon State
If you watched PAC-12 after dark on Saturday nights, then you are aware of what Hodgins can do on the football field. He’s not the most athletically gifted player but he knows how to make plays. When it comes to his athleticism, he compares to Mohamed Sanu. Both players are very similar when it comes to size-adjusted speed.
Hodgins is flying under-the-radar this draft season. He didn’t do enough at the Combine to solicit any positive changes in his draft stock. We will need him to get drafted by a team that allows him to work his way up the depth chart.
Justin Jefferson, LSU
Jefferson is a very electric player. It’s hard not to root for him since he was a three-star prospect who worked his way to the top of the college football landscape. His 4.43-second 40-yard-dash time translates to what he does on the field on a routine basis. Jefferson has sneaky speed that allows him to blow past defenders at a moment’s notice.
We saw him carve out a massive role in the slot during his 2019 campaign, accumulating 1,518 yards while lined up in the slot. He’s not the most physically dominant wide receiver. He will often find himself getting rerouted by defenders. Since he spent most of his time operating from the slot, he has limited experience playing against press coverage. Whether it’s lining up outside or in the slot, his 104 height-adjusted speed score indicates that he has the athleticism to play multiple roles.
Zay Jones and Torrey Smith are familiar names who compare to him. Like Jefferson, both players are more than capable of making plays downfield but can also eat chunks of yardage in the short to intermediate part of the field. Jefferson is one of the top wide receivers in the draft and he is more than likely going to be selected within the first two rounds.
Jerry Jeudy, Alabama
Jeudy is one of the most talented wide receivers in this year’s draft and there’s a good chance he gets selected in the first round. He will start his NFL career as one of the most detailed route runners in the league. There are a few interesting players in his comparison table. Adam Thielen has been a mainstay dynasty asset for the last few years. Brian Hartline was a top-30 wide receiver from 2012-2013 and is now a wide receivers coach for Ohio State.
A good portion of the top wide receivers in the league aren’t considered physically gifted. The position can be considered a sweet science that leans heavily on nuance and skill. Jeudy is very cerebral in the open field. He often makes defenders miss in one-on-one situations. On top of him being an excellent route runner, he always seems to be in the right place at the right time.
Jerry Jeudy with the afterburners. Toss him into the #Colts offense with T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell and explosive play potential doubles. pic.twitter.com/wXB4a0bXgb
— Locked On Colts Podcast (@LockedOnColts) February 21, 2020
Not everyone is DK Metcalf. There are multiple ways a player can win on the field. Jeudy doesn’t have blazing speed but he’s fast enough to make his presence felt. If anything, he’s one of the few players who does a good job at maximizes his athleticism on the field. He works hard to get every drop or speed and quickness out of himself by being prepared for all situations on game day.
CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma
Lamb is a candidate to get drafted in the first round. He was very productive at Oklahoma where he produced a highlight reel decorated with spectacular catches. Although his comparison list isn’t very exciting, he is still a very talented prospect. According to Pro Football Focus, he was very efficient, producing 3.99 yards per route run and 11 yards after the catch per reception.
His athleticism isn’t exciting, but he has more than enough juice to compete at the NFL level. The one thing we can’t measure is his toughness. Even though he’s just six-foot-one and 198 pounds, he still plays like a bigger wide receiver. He isn’t afraid to use his body to box out defenders, and he is not afraid to drive larger defenders back at the point of contact. Lamb has a lot of grit in his game. His play is going to send chills down your spine when he competes at the next level.
Denzel Mims, Baylor
If anyone from this wide receiver group won the Combine, it was Denzel Mims. He caught the track on fire with a 4.38 40-yard dash and demonstrated elite level short-area quickness with a 6.66 three-cone. His 116.55 height-adjusted speed scored ranks in the 90th percentile among wide receiver prospects.
Mims compares athletically to Leonard Hankerson who was semi-fantasy-relevant during his career and Josh Malone who was once an intriguing devy prospect many moons ago. Mims is better than both players listed. He is faster and more explosive, and he is truly one of the most athletic wide receiver prospects in this year’s draft class.
Denzel Mims high points the ball and reels it in. pic.twitter.com/LcJ1tvK4TE
— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) January 23, 2020
The Combine is a major part of the draft process, but it shouldn’t be the main driver in our evaluation. When analyzing Mims’ total body of work, his production metrics and how he performs on film in conjunction with how he performed at the Combine makes him easily a top ten wide receiver.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Michigan
Peoples-Jones was a decorated five-star recruit coming out of high school. Expectations were set at a high level for him out of the gate. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to churn his potential into production. He wasn’t totally at fault for not meeting expectations. Michigan endured bad quarterback play in recent years, causing the offense to sputter which caused him and many other players within the offense to not get their careers off the ground.
His athletic profile sparks interest. Peoples-Jones jumped out of Lucas Oil Stadium with a 44.5-inch vertical. He also posted a better than expected 4.48 40-time, equating to a 105.45 height-adjusted speed score. It’s hard to tell where he will get selected in the draft. There’s a chance he gets drafted in the top-100. There’s also a chance that he falls into the later rounds.
Michael Pittman, USC
Pittman posted one of the most underrated Combine performances of the weekend. He ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 223 pounds. He also displayed good short-area quickness with a 6.96 three-cone. Josh Gordon’s name is written in flashing lights on Pittman’s comparable list. Gordon finished his 2013 season as the WR2 with 314.4 fantasy points which made him one of the most lucrative assets in dynasty fantasy football history.
His size-adjusted athleticism is very exciting. Not only does Pittman have the tools to become a threat at the next level, but he is also very strong at the catch point. He knows how to use his size to create just enough separation from the defender. Pittman is a playmaker and could become a steal in rookie drafts.
Jalen Reagor, TCU
Reagor performed very well at the Combine. He just didn’t reach the lofty expectations set by the draft community. All-in-all, he is a very explosive athlete who has the speed to blow by defenders. He also weighed in at 206 pounds which was much heavier than his listed weight of 185 pounds at TCU. There’s a good chance that he bulked up a bit in the off-season, causing him to run slower than expected.
Truth be told, he’s still a very electrifying player and is the top deep threat in the draft class. He makes tough one-handed catches look easy. Reagor had the daunting task of playing in one of the worst offenses in the country. Even with bad quarterback play he still achieved a 29.2 percent dominator rating. He’s one of the top playmakers in this class and will remain a coveted asset in rookie drafts this spring.
Henry Ruggs, Alabama
All eyes were on Ruggs when it was time for him to run. We all knew he was going to light up the track. He has been demonstrating elite-level speed throughout his career at Alabama. His 4.27 40-dash was very impressive and suggests that he could be a big-play threat when he hits the NFL stage.
The comps listed for Ruggs are very loose and that’s because there aren’t that many people walking around who can lace up a pair of track spikes and run a forty in the 4.2s. He’s not far from John Ross when it comes to size and speed. Ross ran his 40-yard dash just .05 seconds faster than Ruggs.
Henry Ruggs says his goal is to have the fastest 40-yard dash time in NFL Combine history.
He showed off the jets on this play 💨 pic.twitter.com/MKCCIficmr
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) February 27, 2020
We’ve all seen the highlights. Ruggs has the speed to be a true difference-maker. If used properly, he could develop into a top-shelf dynasty asset. His value in rookie drafts will be stimulated by his draft capital. There’s a good chance we hear his name called in the first round.
Laviska Shenault, Colorado
There aren’t many players who compare to Shenault. The closest player was AJ Brown who posted a much faster 40-yard dash time. After a collegiate career that was riddled with injuries, Shenault will go under the knife to repair a core muscle injury that he has been dealing with for quite some time. The injury prevented him from fully participating in the drills at the Combine.
Shenault is one of the most talented players in this year’s draft. He is very aggressive after the catch and will run through defenders to gain extra yards. If there’s a wide receiver in this draft who has the potential to come out of nowhere and take the league by storm, it would be Shenault.
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