The DLF Mailbag

Matt Price

Welcome to the DLF mailbag; the article series that answers *your* questions in long-form. It can be difficult to give a detailed response to your questions on Twitter so this series is designed to do just that. Each week we’ll do a deep-dive on the questions you have been rolling around in your dynasty mind.

If you have something you’d like discussed in this format, please send me a message on twitter @MattPriceFF and include #AskDLF in your tweet. Let’s get into it!

@erb19677 asks…

What are your thoughts on trading startup picks during the startup draft? Everyone says move down but why and is there an analytical way to approach from a number POV?

I’ll be upfront and honest about the last part of your question. I don’t know. There probably is and someone may have already done it, but if not it probably needs a whole article on its own. One resource I do know of is the Pick Value Calculator created by David Dodds of Footballguys. This is more for redraft, but a dynasty version probably exists somewhere.

As for my personal thoughts, I would agree with “everyone.” There are many reasons to move down in a startup draft. In auction leagues, a popular strategy is the “stars and scrubs” approach. This is difficult to do in a startup draft, but it’s possible by trading back to acquire as many top-50 picks as possible. Maybe you want to punt year one and pick up future rookie picks. If you’re going productive struggle then the startup draft is often the cheapest time to acquire those future rookie picks. The biggest reason for me though has to do with tiers. If you’re sitting in a really flat tier it can be advantageous to trade back, pick up some more capital elsewhere, and still get a player you have in the same tier as you would have with your original pick.

Trading back is definitely preferable but sometimes it’s worth it to trade up as well. If the last player in a tier is sitting out there, you are pretty sure he isn’t going to make it to your next pick, and you see a big gap between him and the next tier, it can be a good move to go up and get your guy. Trading back earlier in the draft can give you more picks later and make it easier to pull off these kinds of moves.

@KarlSafchick says…

Feel free to outsource this one if you don’t play IDP, but what is a realistic outlook for Isaiah Simmons‘ dynasty value? Which formats would benefit him the most?

For me, IDP stands for I don’t play, so I definitely need to outsource this one. What I can tell you is that Simmons absolutely annihilated the Combine, likely vaulting himself into the early first round of the NFL Draft. If you thought Jonathan Taylor’s 40-yard dash time of 4.39 seconds at 226 pounds was impressive, Simmons matched it but weighed in 12 pounds heavier. In terms of his dynasty value, I’m going to call in some help from my buddies and fellow DLF writers, Adam Tzikas and Dwight Peebles.

@Adamtz asks…

How do you parse out the Combine? Totally noise? Take some drills over others? One piece of the puzzle?

That last question answered the first one. For me, the measurables and the athletic testing are just pieces of the puzzle. One thing I am looking for in the Combine is to see if the measured athleticism matches up with what I see on the field. If I am surprised by the numbers, either positively or negatively, I like to go back to the film and see what I missed. I think it’s also important to not ‘double count’ Combine results. What I mean by that is if we see a player run fast on film and then he runs fast at the Combine, let’s not give him extra credit for that. It’s certainly nice to confirm that a fast receiver on film like Henry Ruggs is also fast in his underwear at the Scouting Combine, but for me that doesn’t really factor into my final evaluation of a player. We already knew he was fast.

In terms of my favorite drills, I really like the three-cone and the short shuttle. Both of these drills measure a player’s quickness, agility, and change of direction ability, all of which are much more important to me than long speed for the offensive skill positions at the NFL level.

@BillLatin asks…

Is Chase Claypool an intriguing potential tight end convert?

I think it’s certainly possible that the extremely athletic supersized Notre Dame wide receiver could be successful as a tight end at the next level. Just last year, we saw Darren Waller break out as a tight end and he was also a former wide receiver. From a size perspective, Waller also profiles better as a tight end though at 6’6 and 255 pounds compared to Claypool at 6’4, 238.

We have seen success from smaller tight ends though. Evan Engram, for example, comes in an inch shorter and four pounds lighter than Claypool. Coincidentally, Claypool matched Evan Engram’s 4.42 40-yard dash time and eclipsed his vertical jump (40.5” vs 36) and broad jump (126” vs 125”). There’s no denying Claypool’s athleticism but he is a bit behind both Waller and Engram as a receiver. He isn’t the route runner or the natural hands catcher those two are, but he does make up for it with his ability to high-point the ball and consistently win contested-catch situations.

That will do it for this week’s mailbag! Send in your questions to @MattPriceFF for next week’s piece and include #AskDLF in your tweet.

matt price