Buy or Sell: Jameis Winston
For both good and bad reasons, Jameis Winston just might be the league’s most fascinating quarterback, and this was thought of long before he considered the option of Lasik surgery. Making dubious NFL history in 2019, the now sixth-year passer became the league’s first quarterback to throw for at least 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in a single season. His 30 interceptions were the most from any quarterback in a single season in the entire century and the most since Brett Favre in 2005.
Winston led all quarterbacks in passing yards in 2019 (5,109) and threw for 33 touchdowns, but the 30 interceptions have many rightfully skeptical of if he’ll be the Buccaneers starting quarterback in 2020. Head coach Bruce Arians has not been clear as to whether he’ll keep Winston, and at the same time reports have surfaced suggesting the team may use the franchise tag or offer a two-year contract depending on how the Collective Bargaining Agreement goes.
From a fantasy football perspective, however, Winston’s season was a massive success. In spite of his many turnovers, FantasyData had him with the sixth-most fantasy points from 2019, with 305.36 of them. This trailed only Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson. Depending on the league you’re in and the adjustments you make to points scored and subtracted, Winston either matched this level of fantasy production or didn’t quite reach FantasyData’s numbers.
For those who are familiar with Winston’s skill set, his level of play is frustrating because of the physical talent he possesses. While he’s been given a great cast of receivers over the years with big names such as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and DeSean Jackson, he’s also played behind some pretty bad offensive lines in the meantime. On certain plays, he’s been able to elevate botched pass protection and make plays outside of structure, and his peak level of accuracy is tremendous.
The problem is that in order to get to that level of excellence you have to dig deep behind another level of poor QB play. Winston is so maddeningly inconsistent yet so exciting to watch that I almost want to give his prior seasons a pass if the Lasik surgery actually shows significant improvement to his eyesight.
Whether he remains the Bucs starter is to be determined. What is clear, however, is that Winston, who is 26, is still young, giving him plenty of more opportunities to dominate for fantasy teams even if that means nothing on the field. So with that said, is he a must-have, or a quarterback you must be cautious about getting at the right place? Let’s take a look at his tape below.
It’s like Winston is Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde as a quarterback. He can be either the league’s most accurate quarterback or the league’s most inaccurate. Here, his accuracy is nothing short of sensational.
This is a simple drop back under center with a six-man protection scheme. A dropback-heavy offense has been typical for a Bruce Arians-led squad, which is why the initial pairing of Winston and Arians made sense at the time. And it is throws like these that illustrate why the FSU alumni has a fan base.
This is impossible accuracy to find Chris Godwin into the tiniest of windows, and yet Winston finds a way to magically transport it into his wheelhouse. Thanks to a poor angle from the Falcons’ defensive back crossing the middle of the field, Godwin ends up in the clear as he takes this strike all the way to the end zone.
As previously stated, another appealing aspect of Winston’s play is his ability to buy time and extend plays under pressure thanks to his mobility, making him a little more than just your typical, garden variety big-armed quarterback.
2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa easily (and I mean easily) gets by left tackle Donovan Smith without breaking a sweat, putting Winston under duress instantaneously. But thanks to a spin and some nifty footwork, the quarterback is able to break Bosa’s ankles and keep the play alive. With the investment in time purchased, Winston is able to step up in the pocket and find an open receiver down the field.
This is even more spectacular. Winston is forced outside the pocket as Pro Bowl defensive tackle Grady Jarrett rushes through the interior. With very few options around him, he decides to take a shot to the back of the end zone and fires this bomb as he’s moving away and slightly backwards.
Somehow, someway, the pass gets to Breshad Perriman and he’s able to get both feet in bounds for the insane 24-yard touchdown. Some people might call this “Brett Favre-esque”, but I just call this Winston eating a W.
So now we’ve analyzed the very best from Winston, now let’s analyze the very worst, which comes from one severe problem: limited field vision.
Winston is as much of a gambler as a passer as we’ve seen in the NFL. As shown above, it has its benefits, but sometimes he’s too overtly aggressive as a decision-maker. Here, he attempts to look off the linebacker #53, but he never gets a feel for his presence and lofts it right into his hands for easy pickings. Perhaps he assumed he could fit this just over the linebacker’s hands or he just never saw him in the first place. Either way, it’s concerning that these plays still show up at a high rate in his fifth season in the league.
Even when Winston is trying to throw the ball away, he’s still finding ways to miss badly. This is supposed to be a simple lob to the turf after copious amounts of pressure from both the edge and the interior, but it inexplicably falls into the hands of a 49ers defender for the game-sealing pick-six.
This is what’s so baffling about Winston. For all of the gaudy stats and moments showcasing his flashy style of play, there are plays where he’s constantly missing open receivers and plays like this where he has no feel for the field under pressure. It’s one thing to have poor vision, but as his surgery suggested, he literally had poor vision. Is it all a coincidence or is he just an inconsistent decision-maker anyway?
Regardless if he gets his decision making fixed or not, Winston’s accuracy is also a major problem. It’s not always bad, but it’s so hot and cold that you’d wish he’d just refine it so we could talk more about his various talents.
If this pass was going to be thrown, Winston would’ve needed a mulligan. The Falcons pass rush condenses the pocket a tad bit, hurrying up #3’s processing and forcing him to inexplicably jump and throw wide of an open receiver in the flat. Not only that but the ball gets tipped in the air and lands into an Atlanta defender’s hands for another turnover.
How can one quarterback be so satisfying to watch yet at the same time so jarringly flawed that you wonder how the Buccaneers can continue with him as the starter? Jameis Winston is so puzzling for this reason; We know what he’s capable of doing and the heights he can play at, but it’s not long before we also see the many lows he displays as well.
As a fantasy or dynasty quarterback, Winston is worth it at the right spot, but I would not bust my neck to get him at the same spots you would with guys like Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, or even a second-year starter like Lamar Jackson. It’s not likely we’ll ever see a 5,000-yard, 30/30 season from him ever again, but if he remains under Arians (and doesn’t get benched) he can still offer a highly productive year.
Perhaps the eye surgery works in Winston’s favor and he significantly reduces the level of turnovers in 2020. That would make the investment all the more worthwhile. As of this writing, however, I’d look to get him at a lower spot based on his previous body of work.
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