Twitter Observations: Franchise Tag Week
If your dynasty leagues are like mine, trade baits are being updated and the offers are rolling in. Couple that with the results from the recent rookie Scouting Combine and you have the unofficial beginning of the 2020 dynasty season. What that also means is your league mates are beginning to execute their strategy for the year. Whether they’re rebuilding or going for it, the veterans below will be involved in remaking a lot of teams.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
Forbidden Ridley
Calvin Ridley ‘19 per-game splits ⤵️
w/ Hooper active (10 gms):
6.1 tgts
4.1 recs
54.7 yds
0.5 TDs
Extrapolates to PPR WR26w/ Hooper inactive (3 gms):
10.7 tgts
7.3 recs
106.3 yds
0.67 TDs
Extrapolates to PPR WR2Want to stay a step ahead? Pay attention to player contracts 📝
— FF_Kyle (@DynastyFF_KyleM) March 1, 2020
With tight end Austin Hooper a virtual lock to leave Atlanta, and with the Falcons entering free agency with very little cap room, there is a huge opportunity for Calvin Ridley in 2020 and beyond. Despite not topping 1,000 yards in either of his first two seasons, make no mistake that Ridley is off to a productive start in his brief career. He was on pace for 1,000 last season before an injury cost him the last three games of the season. Plus his 17 receiving touchdowns through his first two seasons are good for 25th of all time including just four current players who have achieved it. Those four – Larry Fitzgerald, Odell Beckham, AJ Green, and teammate Julio Jones – all went on to become dynasty receiver studs.
Dynasty Impact: Ridley’s current positional ADP sits at 18 but if he continues to produce without Hooper in 2020 as he did in 2019, he won’t be that cheap for long. Couple that with the fact that Julio Jones is on the wrong side of 30 and the offense is primed for Ridley to take over. Quarterback Matt Ryan and his career 7.5 yards-per-attempt certainly aren’t going anywhere which means Ridley could just be on the cusp of an even more productive career. Buy now while you still can.
Carson Footprint
Among the RBs to rank top 10 in total TDs in 2019, only three of them had those touchdowns account for less than 25% of their total fantasy points:
Christian McCaffrey – 24.4%
Chris Carson – 23.83%
Austin Ekeler – 21.5% 👀— BTSC Steelers (@katemagdziuk) March 1, 2020
Chris Carson has had one of the most unlikely career paths when it comes to fantasy RB1s, starting as the fifth-to-last player taken in the 2017 NFL Draft to the 2020 Pro Bowl. In that time, Carson has rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons while averaging eight rushing touchdowns. If you were one of the lucky ones who picked up Carson for your dynasty team when he was dirt cheap, that move has paid off. And the scary part, as noted in the tweet above, is he may not have even reached his full fantasy potential. If he can continue to hold off former first-round pick Rashaad Penny, which won’t be difficult as Penny is iffy to be healthy enough to start the season, Carson should continue to be a solid RB1 in fantasy leagues.
Dynasty Impact: Carson has had his own recent health issues but didn’t require surgery in the off-season and should be good to go. If that’s the case, he should have no problem rushing for another 1,000 yards in 2020. However, he’s entering his age-26 season and is in the last year of his rookie contract with the Seahawks. Penny, meanwhile, has a contract that runs at least a year longer and maybe more if Seattle chooses to pick up his fifth-year option. And health issues aside, Penny has been the more productive back. While Carson has averaged 4.5 yards-per-carry over the course of his career, Penny’s averaged more than five yards-per-carry.
Carson has done well to fend off Penny in dynasty ADP, but I would be selling now before this chart reverts to its 2018 form.
Jonnu A Jonnu
Jonnu Smith
Give this Man MORE Targets in 2020
(Catch Rate – Passer Rating)Vs. Zone: 80.7% – 135.9 🤯
Vs. Man: 70% – 127.1
In Slot: 78.5% – 98.5 pic.twitter.com/yC8UXtv7pk
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) March 1, 2020
It seems as if we’ve been waiting for the Jonnu Smith breakout for some time but 2019 may have finally been it. The 25-year old became the starter (again) after Delanie Walker suffered another injury that cost him most of the season and, thanks to the added playing time, Smith ended up with the fourth-most targets on the team. The surprise upgrade of Ryan Tannehill at the quarterback position for Tennessee showed us a glimpse of what Smith could do with competent quarterback play. By the end of the season, Smith totaled 35 receptions for 439 yards and three touchdowns to finish as a mid-TE2 in fantasy leagues.
Dynasty Impact: Currently ranked 18th in positional ADP, Smith could be a huge value this off-season. For starters, both tight ends behind him on the depth chart – Anthony Firkser and MyCole Pruitt – are free agents. Incumbent Delanie Walker may not be far behind as his salary could force the Titans to cut him and, if so, would leave Smith as the only tight end left on the roster. It gets even better if the Titans bring back Ryan Tannehill and he continues the stellar quarterback play that led the team to the AFC Championship game. There’s not many, if any, rookie tight ends entering the league that will have an ADP higher than Smith to start their careers, so Smith’s ranking won’t change much. Nonetheless, mid-TE2 is a great value for a player who could be worth a lot more by the end of 2020.
Keep Tom or Carry On?
Tom Brady is currently operating under the belief that he will enter free agency to play somewhere other than New England next season, a sentiment the quarterback has shared with others, ESPN’s Jeff Darlington is repotting.https://t.co/SuOW4L1U6Q
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 27, 2020
We’ve covered the will-he, won’t-he saga of Tom Brady and his free agency before but the longer it goes unresolved, the more likely it is he won’t be a New England Patriot next year. And while Brady’s own dynasty value has remained unchanged, it’s time to start looking at the players affected by his departure. First, a look at the dynasty ADP of the four biggest names – James White, Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and Sony Michel – over the course of 2019.
Everyone saw their ADP stay unchanged or drop over the course of the year. So, we’re trending in the wrong direction. It only got worse over the last months of 2019 as the chatter about Brady grew.
Dynasty Impact: For these players to regain any dynasty value, the Patriots are going to need a serious shot in the arm at quarterback. Just signing a stopgap such as Teddy Bridgewater or trading for Andy Dalton won’t move the needle and seriously reduces the possibility of any Patriots skill position player being a top-50 dynasty asset.
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