Three Wide Receivers to Sell Before the 2020 NFL Draft

With less than two months remaining before the 2020 NFL Draft class will shift thousands of dynasty rosters, now is the time to re-analyze your rosters. In this piece, we will look at the wide receiver position heading into the off-season. As our team at DLF works tirelessly to compile incredible statistical data, we will use some of these great tools to help you decide which receivers to sell before the end of April.

As we get started, let us look at some of the largest risers and fallers at the position over the 2019 season.

Risers

DJ Chark, WR JAX

With an August ADP of 221.5 (19th round), Chark exploded in his sophomore campaign in the NFL climbing to a February 2020 ADP of 44.83 (late fourth). His 73 receptions on 117 targets made him the WR16 on the year, despite playing with three different starting quarterbacks throughout the year. Eight touchdown receptions will be tough to match in 2020, but Chark will continue to be the WR1 on this Jacksonville offense heading into training camp.

AJ Brown, WR TEN

In one year, Brown became the receiver the Titans had hoped they had when they drafted Corey Davis with the fifth pick in the 2017 draft. As a rookie, Brown made an immediate impact catching 52 of his 84 targets (61%) for 1,051 yards and an impressive eight touchdowns. His ADP in August of 2019 was 89.67 (mid-eighth) and has now risen to 23.33 (late second).

Courtland Sutton, WR DEN

Another sophomore wideout who found his stride in 2020, Sutton not only became the clear-cut WR1 of the Denver Broncos, he also became a WR1 dynasty asset amid multiple quarterback changes. His 72 receptions for 1,115 yards and six touchdowns were a huge reason his February is now 24.67 (early third) which rose from 71.33 (late sixth) in early August of 2019. As crazy as it seems, Sutton should have no problem surpassing these numbers from 2019.

Fallers

Antonio Brown, WR FA

There need be no explanation for Brown’s downfall in dynasty ADP. It is clear and evident what has transpired since his departure from Pittsburgh. In August of 2019, he had an ADP of 24.67 (early third) and now is available in many leagues with a February 2020 ADP of 235.5 (mid-20th).

Adam Thielen, WR MIN

Thielen was tied for third in receptions in 2018 (113), posting 1,373 yards and nine touchdowns. Unfortunately, for most of the 2019 season, father-time appeared to have caught up to the 29-year-old as he played in only ten games, catching 30 passes for 418 yards.

His August 2019 ADP was 29.67 (third round) and has now fallen to 60 (late fifth) as of February 2020. The drop is not significant, but I would expect this to continue to fall throughout the off-season.

Brandin Cooks, WR LAR

There is a lot of serious concern with Brandin Cooks moving forward after his 2019 season. Due to some severe concussion symptoms, Cooks had to sit out for three weeks. In his return for the last six games of the year, Cooks played only 272 snaps with just 15 receptions. His August 2019 ADP was 29.83 (third round) but has now dropped to 85.17 (early eighth) as of February 2020.

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These are some great candidates to target going into 2020, but anyone can use that data to tell you that. Let’s take a look at three different receivers – all of which you may want to put on the selling block sooner than later. These are not just ADP risers and fallers, these are players in statistically-proven positions that will make these moves worthwhile.

Though the price of draft picks will never be higher than they near the end of March, I like to make several moves before the draft. I do this because many teams are going to jump on a valued player or use a late flier to go after a receiver with less draft capital. Generally, when this happens, owners now know a team’s situation and expect the trade offers to flood in, whereas before the draft there is only the certainty of the player you are offering them.

Sell High

DeVante Parker (ADP: 77.5, WR36)

There is a lot of hype surrounding DeVante Parker and the Miami Dolphins. With the excitement of having acquired a plethora of 2020 and 2021 draft picks, things are looking up for the forgotten franchise. Parker dominated in 2019, averaging nearly 16 fantasy points per game and finishing as a top-12 weekly receiver five times – right up there with DeAndre Hopkins (six).

Parker started the 2019 season with an August ADP of 165.17, and after a 72-reception, nine-touchdown season has jumped to 77.50 as of February.

The Dolphins have a lot of young talent on the roster and even more incoming in the form of draft picks. In his five-year career, Parker has only once before been a top-50 fantasy receiver. In that year, he was WR49.

Parker is a late breakout at 27 years old, and he did improve in 2019. I cannot deny that. However, with a more than likely rookie quarterback coming under center in 2020, I highly suspect Parker will regress amidst many of the new Dolphin weapons on the field.

Here is a trade completed earlier this month that I would happily accept.

Below is Parker’s current value on DLF’s Trade Analyzer. In the first ten picks of the 2020 rookie class, there is some great value that I would take over Parker.

Diontae Johnson (ADP: 101.83, WR47)

With the abrupt departure of Antonio Brown and the injury-plagued 2019 season of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson emerged as the Steelers WR1.

The third-round pick out of Toledo had an impressive rookie campaign, hauling in 59 of 92 targets for 680 yards and five touchdowns. Among rookie receivers, he finished seventh in fantasy points per game and was the WR54 overall.

What may be even more impressive about Johnson, was his ability to put up these numbers without Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers had arguably the toughest quarterback carousel of any team in 2019 but Johnson still found a way to gel with each.

We actually shouldn’t have been surprised at Johnson’s great production as a 21 and 22-year-old. As a sophomore and junior, Johnson dominated in receptions and was well above the 20% mark of receptions in his market, according to DLF’s College Market Share App.

As his ADP value has risen from August of 2019 (163.5) to 101.83 now in February, I am selling high on Johnson. The return of a healthy Roethlisberger and Smith-Schuster will likely decrease the target percentage for Johnson in 2020. Throw in the addition of Deon Cain this off-season and the likely acquisition of a 2020 rookie receiver and Johnson could take quite a hit in his fantasy output.

I’m not suggesting he will not be successful, but I would be surprised if he matched his WR54 numbers from a year ago.

John Brown (ADP: 117.17, WR51)

I wrote about the unexpected rise of John Brown in my Buffalo Bills Dynasty Capsule. The young franchise is on the rise, and the veteran receiver played a pivotal role in the success of Josh Allen and the Bills offense. With 72 receptions for 1,060 yards and six touchdowns, Brown surpassed 200 fantasy points for just the second time in his six-year career.

He outperformed his August ADP of 131 (eleventh round) as seen by using DLF’s ADP/Rank vs PPG tool which compares a player’s ADP/Dynasty rank to their actual fantasy output.

In years past, Brown has underperformed significantly, but in 2019 he was the WR23 despite being drafted as the WR59.

His ADP was soaring in January of 2020 at 85.17 (eighth round) and has since dropped to 117.17 in February.

It is inevitable for Brown to regress in 2020 and a known fact that the Bills will draft one, if not two rookie receivers in the upcoming NFL Draft. I am selling Brown now as the draft approaches, knowing his ADP and value is going to continue to decrease. You could likely get him for a mid-second rookie pick, but here are a few trades I’ve seen lately that I would accept the moment they hit my inbox.

How do you handle the months of February and March with your dynasty roster? Which receivers are you buying and selling heading into the NFL Draft?