Ranking Confessions: Wide Receivers
Not everyone values players the same. Depending on the format, I tend to value young wide receivers over all other positions. I like building my team around wide receivers and then using my rookie drafts to build my stable of running backs.
Since I value youth, I will have most of the younger players ranked higher compared to some of the other DLF rankers. That being said, I’m a good source for dynasty owners who are looking to rebuild their team.
Another thing I do which is different from other people is that I like to project a player’s value by guessing where the industry will have that player ranked six months or so into the future. If I feel a player has a good chance of seeing a spike in value, then I’m going to bump that player up in my ranks. In real life, I’m looking to buy those players while they are still on the cheap before they see an increase in their price.
By going over a few of the wide receivers who I have ranked higher than consensus, I will provide a depiction of why I value certain players. My goal is to provide some insight into my process. Hopefully, through my transparency, you can take some of this information and use it to improve your process.
Christian Kirk, ARI
My Rank: 14 DLF Rank: 27
When compared to the rest of the DLF rankers, I’m over the moon for Kirk. Honestly, I’m surprised he’s not a crowd favorite. Maybe I’m overshooting my shot, but there’s a lot to like about Kirk. He’s the top option in a high volume passing offense that’s going to improve over time. Per Pro Football Outsiders, Arizona ranked fourth in the NFL with 28.35 seconds between plays while in a neutral game script. Kliff Kingsbury’s fast-paced air raid offense wants to run a lot of plays per game while spreading the ball around through the air.
Kirk is a perfect fit for Arizona’s offense. He ran 42.1 percent of his snaps out of the slot last year and was targeted on 21.7 percent of those snaps. Even though he missed three games last year due to an ankle injury, he still led the team with 1,079 air yards. When on the field, he owned 23 percent of the team’s passing targets.
The future looks promising for the 23-year-old wide receiver. He should see an increase in the quality of his targets as Kyler Murray’s game matures. As he develops, the offense will become more efficient which will lead to longer-lasting drives, more targets and touchdown opportunities. A player with a 20-25 percent target share on a team that is running 70-plus plays per game, is going to see more than enough opportunities to post WR1 numbers.
Our plans for Kirk could go down in a ball of flames if Kingsbury gets fired anytime in the near future. His value is tethered to Arizona’s air raid offense. His upside is limited in a traditional offense where the play volume isn’t enough to elevate his fantasy potential.
Courtesy of DLF’s Ranks Over Time Tool.
By using the ranks over time tool, it’s easy to see that his positional ranking has been steadily increasing over the course of his career. Once we get closer to the NFL season and we start projecting the production totals for some of these players, his value should jump a few spots. When the dust settles from the NFL Draft, we are going to see a flurry of articles from different fantasy football publications promoting him as a buy for the 2020 season.
Another thing I like about him is that his value is age-insulated. His floor is elevated due to his age. We know as long as he is healthy he is going to see a sizable target share. I like taking shots on young wide receivers early in drafts, using their youth as the tiebreaker over veteran wide receivers.
Since they did spend the first-overall pick in last year’s draft to obtain Murray, Arizona is going to do their best to load up on offensive weapons. There’s a good chance they continue to add talent to the wide receiver position, creating competition for targets and making it harder for Kirk to carve out a role as the alpha receiver in a pass-happy offense.
Even if the Cardinals draft a talented wide receiver like CeeDee Lamb, there’s still a very good possibility that Kirk will still command a large enough target share to be fantasy-viable. The sheer passing volume should be able to fuel two fantasy-relevant wide receivers.
James Washington, PIT
My Rank: 33 DLF Rank: 49
I’m not a guy who plants flags on players, but Washington is a player I’m willing to go out of my way to get on my dynasty teams. In the last eight games of the season during weeks 10-17, he owned a 38 percent market share of the team’s air yards and led the team with a WOPR of 56. Washington solidified himself as the team’s deep threat, averaging a 15.7 average depth of target while also seeing 33.8 percent of his targets of 20 yards or more. He even played 27.3 percent of his snaps in the slot. If JuJu Smith-Schuster returns to being a dominant force, Washington will still be a valuable asset to Pittsburgh’s offense.
Expectations were high for him coming out of college. After all, he did catch 226 passes for 4,472 yards and 39 touchdowns during his four-year career. He won the Biletnikoff Award in 2017 and was considered one of the top wide receivers in the nation during his tenure at Oklahoma State. He started his NFL career with an ADP of 64 but from there, his dynasty value has been up and down like a roller coaster. Despite the late-season resurgence, his value hasn’t increased past the top 100.
Perhaps one of the reasons why the community has been tepid on Washington is because he wasn’t the only young wide receiver to breakout in 2019. Diontae Johnson led the team with 92 targets as a rookie and he is shaping up to be a very promising prospect. If he hits on all cylinders then it going to be hard for Washington to fully grasp his fantasy upside.
The soon to be 24-year-old wide receiver will be playing his third year in the league. He is carving out an important role within the offense. If he takes a step forward with his development then we could see him come out of nowhere to become one of the most coveted fantasy assets in the league. He’s worth the gamble at his current price point.
John Ross, CIN
My Rank: 48 DLF Rank: 60
I think I’m early on my Ross ranking and I believe we should see his value spike this off-season. First off, once Joe Burrow gets drafted to the Bengals with the first overall pick the fantasy industry will take a step back and truly analyze every piece of the offense. All of the team’s skill players will see a bump in value with better quarterback play.
Unless Cincinnati drafts another wide receiver, Ross will be the team’s main deep threat. He started the season on fire, catching 11 balls for 270 yards and three touchdowns in the first two games of the season. A shoulder injury caused him to miss a large portion of the season. By the time he returned to the lineup the Bengals were far from playoff contention and were fighting for the first overall pick.
Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate will do the dirty work underneath the coverage. Perhaps we see AJ Green back in Bengals stripes this year. However, Ross is the guy the team needs to stretch the field. Burrow isn’t afraid to sling the rock downfield. Per PFF, Burrow completed 47 passes that went for 20 yards or more. Ross, the man who ran the 4.22 40-yard dash, will be a key benefactor of Burrow’s deep ball.
Of course, his injuries are a major worry to his long-term player value. He has been often injured throughout his career. His health could be the barrier preventing him from reaching his potential. Despite playing in just eight games, he managed to finish the season ranked fifth in the league with seven drops. Considering where he’s valued, we shouldn’t expect him to be a bulletproof prospect. It’s hard to ignore his upside. He’s a player I’m chasing this off-season.
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