2020 Dynasty Capsule: Buffalo Bills

Noah Ballweg

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

Quarterback

Josh Allen (ADP: 122.67, QB7)

Age: 23

It’s safe to say that many scouting profiles have been proven wrong over the last two years of Allen’s young career. The second-year pro led the Bills to a 10-6 record in the AFC East and a wild-card berth against the Texans in which they came up just three points short.

The future is bright for the talent on this young roster, and Allen is poised to lead this team as the franchise surrounds him with talent.

He jumped from QB21 in 2018 up to QB6 in 2019. He improved his completion rate from 52 percent up to nearly 59 percent and threw for 1,000 yards more in 2019 (3,089) than in the year prior. He threw 20 touchdowns to just nine interceptions, and by way of rushing, he ran for 510 yards, including nine rushing touchdowns.

He was third among quarterbacks in total rushing yards behind Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, but his nine rushing touchdowns led the league for starting quarterbacks. Considering this fact, when you compare the ADP values of all three, you realize the incredible value you get out of Allen – currently the QB7 with an ADP of 122.67.

In startup leagues, simply waiting a few rounds gets you one of the most efficient and proven running quarterbacks in the game today. word image 233

 

I like what Buffalo has done with this team. They are a young bunch with a lot of talent, and considering that Allen put up these numbers without a true WR1 suggests that he is only going to get better as his surrounding talent increases. Keep the shares you have and acquire more where you can; his value is only going to rise in 2020.

Matt Barkley

Age: 29

Barkley appeared in two games for the Buffalo Bills in 2019. Completing 27 of 51 passes with three interceptions. He is the clear backup and poses no threat to make a run at the starting job. He is worth a stash in superflex leagues due to Allen’s running habits, but he makes poor decisions on the field when given the chance.

Davis Webb

Age: 25

The Bills signed Webb to a futures contract in early January of this year. The three-year veteran out of Texas Tech will likely compete in training camp with Barkley for the back-up role. Since Webb has yet to see any game action in the NFL, he will have his work cut out for him in the fall. However, the Bills do seem confident in the talent that he possesses.

Running Back

Devin Singletary (ADP: 58.83, RB24)

Age: 22

As long as Singletary can remain healthy at his size (5’7″, 203 lbs), he will be an impact player in a perfect system.

In 2019, the Bills’ third-round pick appeared in 12 games, rushing the ball a total of 151 times for 775 yards (5.1 YPC) and found the end zone twice in the process. He also proved to be a great change of pace back in the passing game, hauling in 29 receptions for 194 yards and two touchdowns.

Singletary saw his snap percentage increase as the season progressed, proving to be a huge dynasty asset down the stretch in the fantasy playoffs. In games where he was given a minimum of 15 carries (six games), he failed to rush for 75 yards or more in just one of those contests.

Frank Gore is set to be a free agent in 2020. The backfield is wide open for Singletary to claim. If he can remain healthy and prove that he is capable of a  starting workload, he should be in the top 15 rankings among running backs in 2020.

Using DLF’s Trade Finder tool, I’ve included two incredible trades below that I would have no problem accepting given Singletary’s current value.

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The WR1 in dynasty, Michael Thomas, for Singletary and a 2020 first-round pick? I am taking the Thomas side 100 percent of the time.

TJ Yeldon (ADP: 229.50, RB88)

Age: 26

It was a difficult first year with the Bills for the six-year veteran out of Alabama. Yeldon only appeared in four games in 2019, logging 147 snaps and 17 rushing attempts.

With the addition of Gore and Singletary in the 2019 off-season, many speculated that Yeldon would rise to the challenge and become the Bills starting running back. More so, we at least expected him to be heavily involved in the passing game on third downs. However, none of this came to fruition.

Yeldon’s contract runs through 2020 with the Bills, but he is in danger of being cut this off-season to create cap space for the extensions of several big-name assets. I expect the Bills to look for a complimentary down-hill runner for Singletary, similar to the role which Gore played in 2019. This could all but push Yeldon back onto the free-agent market.

Frank Gore (ADP: 230.25, RB87)

Age: 36

2019 marked the lowest rushing totals for Frank Gore in his entire 15-year career in the NFL. However, it appears as though he has at least one more season left in him.

Despite only carrying the ball 166 times at just a 3.6 yards per carry rate, Gore proved his valuet to the Bills who needed a strong between the tackles runner to compliment Singletary.

Gore will be a free agent in the off-season and, though he was needed in 2019, his lack of efficiency will likely not earn him another contract in Buffalo for the 2020 season. At this point in his career, I am leaving him on waivers and adding younger talent. He’ll celebrate his 37th birthday on May 13th.

Christian Wade

Age: 28

Wade is a name that you will want to keep an eye on in the off-season for the Bills. He was one of ten players that the team signed to contracts in early January, proving the value they see in the former rugby star.

The players love him, the coaching staff loves him, and heck, I do too. Wade was brought into training camp in the fall of 2019 having not played any American Football. He took his first NFL preseason carry 65 yards to the house and on his first reception took it 48 yards down to the two-yard line. The man has immense talent and I believe he is only getting started. Add him this off-season. You won’t be disappointed.

Wide Receiver

John Brown (ADP: 117.17, WR52)

Age: 29

When healthy, Brown has proven to be a legitimate dynasty asset to the fantasy football community. In 2019, he was able to be that and even more for the Bills.

Setting a career-high in nearly every statistical category, Brown played a total of 939 snaps with 72 receptions and 1,060 yards, all while hauling in six touchdowns for the Bills in 2019.

It was a success story, to say the least, and Brown finished the season as the WR15 in PPR leagues, ahead of Stefon Diggs and Courtland Sutton.

His 117.17 current ADP suggests that he can most likely be drafted in the tenth-round of startup drafts – an incredible return on investment if he produces another top-15 season in 2020.

Using DLF’s Trade Analyzer Tool, you can discover quickly what Brown’s worth may be compared to the incoming 2020 draft class. Given his age of 29-years old and his usual lack of consistent back-to-back productive seasons, I would have no problem moving Brown for an early second-round pick in this year’s rookie draft.

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Cole Beasley (ADP: 211.33, WR66)

Age: 30

Speaking of career highs. The 30-year-old Beasley found the fountain of youth and a fresh start in 2019. He had the best statistical fantasy season of his eight-year career.

While much of the focus was on Brown and Singletary throughout the season, Beasley quietly caught 67 passes for 778 yards and six touchdowns. As the overall WR28 on the season, it was the highest finish for Beasley ever in his NFL career and he should have no problem retaining his role as the slot receiver in this growing offense.

I expect his touchdown total to slightly decrease in 2020, but he could easily surpass 800 yards receiving, which is why at his current ADP of 211.33, I am grabbing him in my startups.

Isaiah McKenzie (ADP: 238.83)

Age: 24

In his third season with the Bills, McKenzie showed some promise heading into his contract year. The speedster out of Georgia appeared in 12 games, catching a career-high 27 of 39 targets for 254 yards and one touchdown. He also ran the ball eight times for 49 yards.

What I enjoyed most about his game is the immediate effect that the offense felt when he was on the field. Like DeSean Jackson or Tyler Lockett, McKenzie can change the course of a game with one play. This opened up the field, allowing Beasley and Brown to get open in the middle of the field or down the sidelines.

McKenzie is available in almost all leagues and would be a nice summer stash for your dynasty roster. Entering his final year on his contract he should get some great usage in 2020.

Duke Williams (ADP: 240.17)

Age: 26

Williams was a rising junior-college transfer at Auburn before a slew of injuries and off-field incidents cost him his spot on the Auburn football team. While his draft stock plummeted, he underperformed at the NFL Combine running a 4.72 40-yard dash while showing that his size limited him more than gave him an advantage.

Nevertheless, at age 26, Williams started three games for the Buffalo Bills in 2019 and caught 12 passes for 166 yards and one touchdown.

He poses no threat to the fantasy value of Beasley or Brown, but could work himself into the rotation in 2019 if all goes well in the off-season. For now, he is best left on waivers.

Robert Foster (ADP: 237.33, WR92)

Age: 25

The expectations surrounding Foster were very high to start the 2019 season. Coming off a rookie season where he emerged to catch 27 passes for 541 yards and three touchdowns, it seemed fairly clear that the Bills would get him the ball in 2019.

Unfortunately, this was not the case.

He had only three receptions for 64 yards and saw most of his playing time on special teams. His ADP fell drastically from 140 to 237.33 and it appears that the free-agent acquisitions of Brown and Beasley all but eliminated his opportunities in this receiving corps.

Tight End

Dawson Knox (ADP: 181.17, TE21)

Age: 23

The Bills drafted Knox in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft, and he fit in nicely with the young talent that surrounds Allen. As a rookie, he was targeted 50 times, catching 28 passes for 388 yards and two touchdowns. It appears that he and Allen have developed chemistry together that bodes well for 2020.

Catching just 56 percent of his targets, Knox will need to work on his hands this off-season and eliminate the drops that he suffered in 2019.

He is the tight end to own in Buffalo. Kroft could eat into some of his routes, but the Bills truly believe Knox has TE1 potential.

Tyler Kroft (ADP: 235.50, TE50)

Age: 27

As has been the story of his NFL career, Tyler Kroft’s season was cut short by injury once again. Only once in his five years in the NFL has he been able to play in ten games or more and this season was no different.

After missing the entire first half of the season, he came in to catch just six passes for 71 yards. He could be in danger of being cut this off-season to add some cap space. Regardless, I am leaving him on the waivers in all leagues.

Tommy Sweeney

Age: 24

Sweeney was only able to play in six of the Bills’ contests in 2019. The rookie out of Boston College played fairly well given his limited opportunity. He should be in the running for the TE2 or TE3 spot on this roster in the fall.

His 84 percent target rate on routes run is encouraging, showing his ability to get open when he is on the field. If there were two tight ends to own on this roster, I would place my money on Sweeney and Knox.

Jason Croom

Age: 26

Croom missed the entire 2019 season due to injury and was surpassed by two rookies on the depth chart in the process. Depending on Kroft’s status this off-season, Croom could be looked at as the TE4 on this roster which makes him droppable in all formats.

Lee Smith

Age: 32

The veteran added some nice depth to the Bills when needed this season, but is used primarily as a blocker rather than a passing option. His 39 percent target rate on routes is simply not enough to make him fantasy relevant.