2020 Dynasty Capsule: Cincinnati Bengals

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

Quarterback

Andy Dalton (ADP: 231.17, QB30)

Age: 32

Benched in favor of rookie signal-caller Ryan Finley mid-season, fans and dynasty players knew 2019 would be Dalton’s last year starting in Cincinnati.

While he couldn’t lead an all-around mediocre Bengals team to much success, he was useable when he rostered by fantasy players. He averaged 15.7 fantasy points per game in 2019, good for QB21. In his long tenure as the Bengals’s starting quarterback, he put together some quality fantasy seasons, particularly in superflex leagues.

Dalton is still a Bengal, but presumably not for long. The team has no dead cap penalty and can save over $17 million if they choose to cut the veteran quarterback. He will surely land on his feet somewhere, but it may be as a backup or as a bridge quarterback to a highly coveted rookie quarterback.

He can be had in the dynasty marketplace for someone like veteran wide-out Cole Beasley in superflex leagues. For the chance at a few spot starts in the superflex format, this is a reasonable price.

The NFL Draft 1.01 – Joe Burrow/other rookie QB

Age: 23

In all likelihood, Burrow will replace Dalton. Usually, these dynasty capsules do not include rookie analysis, but I feel it would be a glaring hole in the piece to not include something on Burrow.

Coming from seemingly nowhere, he completed one of – if not the – greatest college football season ever. The LSU senior passed for over 5,600 yards in 15 games, completing over 76 percent of his passes and scoring 60 touchdowns in the process of leading his team to a national championship.

Burrow projects to be one of the best college quarterbacks to come out in a while based solely on his senior season. He’s the consensus 1.01 in superflex rookie drafts and will surely go high in startups this off-season as a presumed Cincinnati Bengal.

While it’s tough to pinpoint a valuation at the moment, the 2020 rookie 1.01 in superflex leagues, presumably Burrow, is being valued at similar levels to last year’s rookie 1.01, Kyler Murray. The Cardinals’ quarterback having proven himself in the NFL, dynasty players need to add a bit on top to get to Murray. The two young quarterbacks, though, are valued very similarly.

Ryan Finley (ADP: 235.75. QB45)

Age: 25

A fourth-round rookie last season, Finley stepped in for the benched Dalton and was lackluster in every way. He completed under 55 percent of his passes in every game and never surpassed 200 yards passing. While he did show mobility, picking up over 60 yards on the ground, he did nothing to “wow” Bengals ownership or dynasty players. He’ll be Burrow’s backup for the duration of his rookie contract.

Running Back

Joe Mixon (ADP: 12.83, RB7)

Age: 23

It was a tale of two seasons for Mixon, going from borderline unstartable to fantasy superstar in a matter of weeks. From weeks one through eight, Mixon scored just 80 PPR fantasy points, behind Chase Edmonds, LeSean McCoy, and Sony Michel, among others. Then, after the Bengals took their week nine bye, Mixon scored 145.4 PPR points over the second half of the season, ranking fourth over that time period.

The problem with Mixon has never been talent; the Bengals’ offensive line ranked in the bottom-third of Football Outsider’s Adjusted Line Yards measure in every year of Mixon’s career. Dynasty players know this, and Mixon’s value, despite him largely missing on expectations, has remained steady. In 2020, dynasty players are hoping for a truly elite season from Mixon as the Bengals hopefully bounce back from mediocrity.

As a late first/early second startup valuation, Mixon is highly coveted among the dynasty community. His DLF Trade Analyzer valuation suggests that it would take a top-three first-round-pick plus the sophomore TE Noah Fant to pry Mixon away from his current team in your league. The valuation could be even higher depending on the manager, but Mixon is certainly towards the top of his historical valuation heading into 2020.

Giovani Bernard (ADP: 235.17, RB80)

Age: 28

Bernard has been playing in a complementary role to Mixon ever since the latter was drafted. This role, however, has occasionally brought some fantasy value. Since 2017, he’s averaged 36 receptions per season, though that number has been steadily falling.

Bernard has been predictably solid for dynasty players when Mixon is out with an injury. He has historically commanded the bulk of the touches in the Bengals’ backfield.

However, in 2019, Bernard failed to record double digit touches once all season and did not score a single touchdown. The veteran running back has become unstartable in situations where Mixon is playing. Despite signing a two-year extension through 2022, Bernard has little dynasty value.

Rodney Anderson (ADP: 237.83, RB85)

Age: 23

Anderson was a highly thought of rookie last season, but an unfortunate series of injuries both in college and in the NFL have hindered him from showcasing his abilities. Particularly with Mixon as the team’s lead running back, it’s difficult to project any meaningful dynasty value for Anderson in the coming years.

Trayveon Williams (ADP: N/A)

Age: 22

Williams was one of my favorite late-round rookies pre-draft in 2019, but a fall to the sixth round made the chances that the former Texas A&M running back produces meaningfully in the NFL drop substantially. There were hopes that Williams would take the Bernard role, but with the vet’s  extension, Williams is an afterthought in dynasty leagues. He’s only rosterable in very deep leagues.

Wide Receiver

Tyler Boyd (ADP: 46.17, WR24)

Age: 25

Coming off back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons, Boyd has put all doubts from his 2018 campaign behind him. He was a highly thought of rookie back in 2016, earning second round draft capital after posting great college numbers. His college market share statistics gave a clear indication that he had the ability to perform at the NFL level.

He has played with Dalton throughout his career. With the Bengals all-but-certainly moving on from the quarterback this season in favor of rookie Burrow, dynasty players are excited for what Boyd can do with a presumably better quarterback.

While Burrow is unlikely to reach even 4,000 passing yards in year one – something only three quarterbacks have done since 2010 – there is hope for Boyd to be Burrow’s go-to target for the next four to five years. This hope has lifted Boyd up to the highest ADP of his career.

Overall, trades  have shown that he can still be acquired at a fairly reasonable price. While some dynasty managers may value him more highly than others, it’s worth inquiring about the veteran receiver if your team is in need of solid WR2 production. His value may rise throughout the off-season as the Burrow hype train gains steam.

AJ Green (ADP: 85.5, WR43)

Age: 31

It seems like forever ago, but Green was once the dynasty 1.01 pick back in 2014. He’s had an incredible career, posting at least 67 yards per game in every season in the NFL. Dynasty players have to wonder, however, if he will be able to continue such performance heading into his age 32 season in 2020.

There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding Green this 2020 off-season. He just missed the entire 2019 season with injury, he is an unrestricted free agent, and the last time he played football he was 30 years old. Despite the uncertainty, dynasty players are valuing him highly in hopes that he can return to WR1 form he’s shown his whole career.

According to the DLF Trade Analyzer, competing teams in 2020 may be able to get Green for a mid-second round pick in superflex leagues. If you want to take the gamble, this is a good price to pay; understand, though, that Green’s dynasty value will only continue to fall.

John Ross (ADP: 149.33, WR67)

Age: 24

The man who holds the fastest 40-yard dash time in NFL Combine history, Ross has failed to put together a fantasy relevant season in his two years. However, despite only playing eight games in 2019, he was actually on pace to break the 1,000 yards receiving mark; he had 506 yards in those eight games.

He is a player who can change the course of a game – both for fantasy and real life – with just one play. With Green likely out of town, Ross has the chance to step up into a lot of opportunity once again in 2020.

While he is a better best-ball player than traditional dynasty league player, he still holds a solid valuation in dynasty leagues. His ADP has been on the rise since last season, and it should only continue to increase as dynasty players realize the opportunity he has to excel.

By the time September rolls around, I expect the market to value Ross as a top 60 wide receiver. Below are some example trades to acquire the former first-round pick.

Auden Tate (ADP: 170.67, WR79)

Age: 23

Looking back toward early rookie drafts in 2018, Tate was considered a highly regarded prospect. His February 2018 rookie ADP came in at 14 overall. With a lackluster combine paired with low draft capital, he fell down boards dramatically. After a forgettable rookie season, he showcased the talent that Devy enthusiasts have seen for his career at Florida State. In his second year in the NFL, he managed 575 yards and one touchdown.

Heading into 2020, he has the opportunity to command a number two role in the Bengals offense. Ross has historically not been a number two option in regards to target share, but rather his ability comes in the form of big plays. With the likely departure of Green, it’s reasonable to assume that Tate could command similar, if not more, opportunity in 2020.

According to the DLF Trade Analyzer, he would cost a mid-third to acquire. He’s a solid gamble heading into 2020.

Alex Erickson (ADP: N/A)

Age: 27

As a fourth-year player, Erickson commanded 78 targets in what was the best season in his career. Interestingly, he finished 2019 with very similar numbers to Tate. He had two fewer targets, but caught three more passes. Tate is younger and reasonably ranked higher by the community. There is a chance that Erickson steals enough targets in 2020 to negatively impact both Ross and Tate.

Overall, Erickson is the fourth option on this team heading into 2020, but there’s a case to be made to roster the veteran receiver in deep leagues.

Damion Willis (ADP: NA)

Age: 22

Willis was an undrafted free agent rookie last season and saw 16 targets. He’s unlikely to make a leap in a crowded depth chart with a rookie quarterback. He’s only rosterable in very, very deep leagues.

Stanley Morgan (ADP: NA)

Age: 23

Another undrafted free agent rookie from 2019, Morgan saw 10 targets in his rookie campaign. He will be fighting with Willis – along with potential incoming rookies – for a chance at the WR5 position.

Tight End

CJ Uzomah (ADP: 234.83, TE39)

Age: 27

Uzomah has been the occasional solid streamer play in recent years, including his 2018 campaign where he saw over 60 targets on the season.

The 27-year old veteran is a reliable option, consistently catching around 67 percent of his targets throughout his career. Ultimately, though, he offers little fantasy upside at a position that – in most leagues – only starts one per team. I wouldn’t recommend rostering him throughout the off-season unless in a 2TE format.

Tyler Eifert (ADP: N/A)

Age: 29

He is an unrestricted free agent heading into 2020, and he will likely be finding a new team. The oft-injured veteran has never been able to establish himself as a reliable fantasy football asset, but the talent has always been there.

Eifert, who turns 30 in September, is coming off his best season since 2015. If he lands on a team with a lackluster tight end depth chart, he’s worth monitoring in TE premium and 2TE leagues.

Drew Sample (ADP: N/A)

Age: 23

Sample was a second-round draft pick last season primarily for his ability as a blocker. With his combination of size, athleticism, and draft capital, he looks – at least on the surface – like a solid fantasy prospect.

He has never been a highly used passing target. While that’s unlikely to change, there’s at least a small chance he develops into a playmaker with Burrow presumably at the helm. At the very least, he has the highest upside in the Bengals’ tight end room, though that’s not saying much.