2020 Dynasty Capsule: Houston Texans

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson (ADP: 45.83, QB3)

Age: 24

Watson is entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract with the Houston Texans. For one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league, the upcoming 2020 season could very well be the most important for his career – and for the Houston franchise.

In 2019, he displayed what should earn him a hefty payday at some point in the near future. He threw for over 3,800 yards with 26 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. Most impressively, he often put the game into his own hands rushing for 413 yards on the ground, including a career-high seven touchdowns.

While the Texans suffered yet another (and arguably their most disappointing) playoff exit, Watson should retain enough tools in 2020 to make another run.

The story in 2019 was the lack of pass protection and an inefficient run game. He led the NFL as the most-sacked quarterback (55) for the second year in a row.

With no first round draft pick in 2020 or 2021, the Texans cannot pass up on protection with their second and third round picks, and they must pursue a high-value running back in free agency.

Watson remains the QB3 in DLF’s Dynasty Rankings. He should remain in the top five for at least the next several years, if the Texans can keep him protected and healthy. Lamar Jackson scored just 88 more fantasy points than Watson in 2019. I would not be surprised to see him jump back up to overall QB1 in 2020.

AJ McCarron (ADP: 240.33)

Age: 29

McCarron appeared in two games for the Texans in 2019, completing 21 passes for 225 yards and one interception. He also rushed five times for 39 yards and one touchdown.

Set to be a free agent this off-season, he could be re-signed by the Texans on another short term deal. The team’s goal is to add to their skill positions, so quarterback security outside of Watson is not a top priority.

Joe Webb

Age: 33

Webb has connected for two passes on seven attempts in eight years. The ten-year pro is a free agent this off-season and will most likely not be back. He can be dropped in all fantasy formats.

Running Back

Lamar Miller (ADP: 212.67, RB59.6)

Age: 28

Coming off one of the best years of his career in 2018, Miller missed the entire 2019 NFL season with a torn ACL. This not only set back his hopes of finishing his career with the Texans, but it was also evident that the Texans missed his veteran leadership all season long.

Set to turn 29-years old this off-season, Miller is now a free agent and it seems highly unlikely that the Texans will re-sign him. He may still have a few good seasons left in him, but I believe his days as an RB1 for a franchise are over. If anything he should find himself in a committee for the upcoming season.

Before the injury, Miller’s overall ADP was 90.5, making him a seventh round draft pick in startups. He may have lost a step, but he can now be had in the 17th round and you would be wise to acquire him this off-season as his value should rise once again.

Carlos Hyde (ADP: 192.60, RB60)

Age: 29

Hyde found the fountain of youth in 2019 and really helped turn the Texans rushing game around after Miller went down with an injury. Statistically, it was one of the best years of his career. Setting career highs in games played, rushing attempts and rushing yards, he averaged 4.3 yards per carry and surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his storied career.

He is due to be a free-agent this off-season. While his price tag may have increased due to his resurgence, the Texans would be wise to strike a new deal with the seven-year pro – likely somewhere in the two-year, $3.5 million range.

I do not foresee Hyde as the starting running back in 2020. If you own shares of him you may want to sell this off-season, especially if he remains in Houston. The Texans are bound to sign a top-rated running back which should push Hyde back to RB2 duties.

Duke Johnson (ADP: 178.50, RB41)

Age: 26

Johnson’s ADP skyrocketed early in the 2019 season when he became heir apparent to the running back throne after Miller’s season-ending injury. In the span of one month his ADP jumped from 157 (13th round) to 74.3 (sixth round) and for those who were able to sell him at his highest, the return was undoubtedly worth it.

Dynasty hopefuls once again relished his opportunity as an RB1. Unfortunately, they were again let down by his inability to retain that position for a whole season, let alone a whole game.

He by no means had a poor 2019 season. He rushed 83 times for 410 yards (4.9 YPC) and two touchdowns, adding 44 receptions for 400+ yards and three receiving touchdowns. However, it is now more evident than ever that Johnson is limited to a third-down role which is where he thrives.

He is currently slated as the Texans’ starting running back, but that will change this off-season, which has to be a relief to dynasty owners. I believe he’s found a great situation in Houston and will be more properly utilized in the passing game in 2020 as he can spell whomever the Texans acquire at the position.

Be sure to claim Johnson off waivers if he is available in shallow leagues, and expect his ADP to slowly climb back up in 2020.

Karan Higdon

Age: 23

Higdon saw no playing time in 2019 and battled all off-season long to make the Texans roster. It appears he will again have to play this role for another off-season despite being one of three running backs contracted through 2020. He is in danger of being cut during the preseason and will need to show vast improvement in his strength and vision in order to maintain his role within the organization.

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins (ADP: 8.5, WR3)

Age: 27

Hopkins does not get the respect he deserves. One of the most consistent wide receivers in league history, it pained me to see our very own Ryan McDowell tweet that he had fallen all the way into the second round of a startup draft in 2020.

This is how DeAndre Hopkins falls to 16 overall in a dynasty startup draft… pic.twitter.com/L9UMKW0EaZ

— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) February 8, 2020

He has been a top-five scoring wide receiver in fantasy leagues four out of the last five years. Despite getting off to a treacherous start in 2019, he rebounded to finish the season as the WR3 in 2019.

Through the first six weeks of the NFL season, he was averaging only 6.7 receptions per game for an average of just 67 yards per game and two total touchdowns. In the nine weeks that would follow, the star wideout and the Texans as a whole found their stride, with Nuk hauling in 64 receptions for 763 yards and five touchdowns.

Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise: Hopkins’ production is not regressing. He still has multiple top-five receiving seasons left in him with an All-Pro quarterback under center.

Using DLF’s Trade Finder, I was able to uncover a terrific value in a trade that took place just days ago. If you are looking for young talent at the wide receiver position, the 2020 class has some great options in the first round, which is what I love most about this trade.

It would be difficult to trade away your most valuable asset, but to gain two, possibly three top-tier rookie skill players would certainly pay off in the long run.

Will Fuller (ADP: 110.17, WR44)

Age: 25

Fuller amassed 52 percent of his total receiving yards in 2019 in two games. It’s difficult to endorse him given his extreme lack of consistency and production, especially for a former first round NFL Draft pick.

Entering the final year of his four-year contract in 2020, he will likely be playing for his next contract, wherever that may be. I doubt it will be in Houston. While he was able to appear in 11 games in 2019, 49 receptions for 670 yards and three touchdowns simply does not prove enough for the receiver who is supposed to be the team’s WR2.

Given his DLF ADP of 110.17 and using the DLF Trade Analyzer, you might be able to get some decent value out of him while you have the chance. His value recently dropped, however, and now sits at 155.9, which is comparable to the 2.03 rookie pick.

Kenny Stills (ADP: 204.50, WR81)

Age: 27

Another name that will be playing for a new contract in 2020 is fellow wide receiver, Kenny Stills. Acquired in a trade with the Dolphins early in 2019, his production was quite limited in the Texans offense.

Catching 40 passes for 561 yards and four touchdowns in 13 games does not necessarily stand out in fantasy terms, but his synchronization with Watson did appear to grow near seasons’ end.

Both Stills and Fuller are downfield burners and they play a very similar style of game. I like Stills’ value right now at an ADP of 204.5 and his longevity on the field is definitely something to keep in mind when comparing the two. With a full off-season to develop within the offense, watch for him to creep back into the 60+ receptions and roughly 700 yards receiving range.

Keke Coutee (ADP: 224.83, WR73)

Age: 23

A highly sought after rookie pick in the 2018 draft class, he has only been able to get on the field for 14 games in the last two years due to injuries. The addition of Stills in 2019 was basically to replace the oft-injured Coutee and add some insurance to the receiving depth chart.

He finished the year with 22 receptions for 254 yards and has his work cut out for him heading into the 2020 off-season. He will likely be the WR4 on this roster in the upcoming season, with his chance of seeing more playing time wholly dependent on the health of Fuller and Stills.

DeAndre Carter (ADP: N/A)

Age: 26

A free agent heading into the 2020 off-season, Carter had 11 receptions for 162 yards in 2019. He is best left in the waiver pool for the foreseeable future and will likely be on the cusp of the fall training camp cuts in 2020.

Tight End

Jordan Akins (ADP: 239.3, TE47)

Age: 27

The second-year pro out of Central Florida showed some major improvement from 2018 to 2019, putting up career highs across the board from a season ago. While veteran Darren Fells led the Texans tight ends, Akins still found a large snap share (61 percent) and caught 36 passes for 418 yards and two touchdowns.

With two years remaining on his contract, Akins still has much to improve upon and time to do so. Fells likely has one year left with the Texans and if Akins can again increase his totals from 2019 he will be a valuable dynasty asset.

Jordan Thomas (ADP: 238.75, TE41)

Age: 23

After catching four touchdowns in his rookie season, Thomas was a bit of a disappointment in 2019. Struggling with hamstring injuries during training camp, he eventually would get on the field during the preseason, only to suffer a cracked rib injury. In total, he would see only 38 snaps in 2019 and his since been passed on the depth chart by Akins, Fells and most likely Warring as well.

Darren Fells (ADP: 221.50, TE42)

Age: 33

Fells’ resurgence was something to behold in 2019. The former euro-league basketball player ended up being one of Watson’s favorite targets as the two gelled nicely in the red zone. He set career highs in nearly every statistical category in 2019, catching 34 passes for 341 yards and seven touchdowns.

Even more impressive is the fact that Fells definitely played his way into a 2020 contract. The Texans have expressed interest in re-signing the eight-year vet, which should be a financially easy accomplishment for the 2020 off-season to-do list.

Kahale Warring (ADP: 239.67, TE33)

Age: 22

Warring was compared to TJ Hockenson and Dallas Clark based on his physical attributes and testing at the combine. Houston coaches raved about the physical specimen that he is, and about how his talent translated nicely into the Texans offense. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2019 season due to some concerning injuries.

It remains unseen whether the Texans will shake things up and sign a big-name free agent tight end or stick with this group. For Warring’s sake, I would really like to see him get another shot on the field to see what weaponry he adds for Watson.