Twitter Observations: Scouting Combine Week
It may be just the beginning of the off-season but it’s also about time that rumors start ramping up. Between free agent rumblings, contract negotiations and the like, there will be no shortage of news to parse and determine if it will help your dynasty team. Below are a few tweets that caught our attention this week when it comes to veterans who could be on the move in your dynasty leagues.
A reminder: This space will be dedicated to an assortment of things we find on Twitter and what it means for our dynasty teams. Most fantasy tweets undoubtedly have a redraft slant to them but we’re here to talk about the dynasty implications.
Diggs Might Fly
Stefon Diggs deleted everything on IG Vikings related pic.twitter.com/jS0g6oxnOA
— Ryan Sjoberg (@Ryan_Sjoberg) February 18, 2020
Uh oh. If recent history is any guide, a star receiver frustrated with his team doesn’t usually end well (See: Antonio Brown; Odell Beckham). It may be for different circumstances but the end result is the same where we see a receiver leave the productive environment he’s been in. And make no mistake, Stefon Diggs has been productive. Over the course of the last four seasons, he’s top ten among all receivers in receptions and touchdowns and top 15 in receiving yards. And despite him entering his seventh NFL season, he’s still just 26.
Dynasty Impact: Diggs dynasty owners will see which of the following two paths Diggs and the Vikings go. The first is he continues to be frustrated at the only team he’s played for and the relationship turns even more acrimonious. This could lead to an indefinite holdout, suspension, or both. The other route is the Vikings move on from Diggs through either a trade or release and he plays somewhere else in 2020.
The latter isn’t necessarily bad but it does add an unknown element to Diggs’ dynasty value which is currently 19th in our positional dynasty rankings. For example, there are only two players – Amari Cooper and Odell Beckham – ahead of Diggs in those rankings that have played for more than one team in their career, both of whom spent their first full seasons with their new teams in 2019. How did that turn out?
For Cooper, his ranking didn’t change much. For Beckham, he’s still a top-ten dynasty receiver, just not top-three like he was. Receivers who have stayed with their original team are much easier to predict because we have a track record. Diggs dynasty owners should hope it stays that way.
Between the Lions
Some pre-Combine news.
Free agent WR Danny Amendola is re-signing with the @Lions on a 1-year deal, per league sources.
Amendola is coming off a 62 reception/ 678 yard 2019 season.
— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) February 22, 2020
This portion of the article is not a closer look at Danny Amendola’s dynasty value (breaking: he’s old) but rather how it’ll affect a young piece of the Lions offense. You would have thought tight end TJ Hockenson was destined for the Hall of Fame after he caught six balls for 131 yards and a touchdown in his debut against Arizona. It turns out the Cardinals were just really bad at defending against tight ends as Hockenson failed to top 56 yards in any game after that and scored just once the rest of the season. He was then sidelined for the last month of the season with an ankle injury to put an end to his disappointing rookie campaign.
Dynasty Impact: The rookie class of tight ends is not nearly as inspiring as it has been in years past so don’t look for a sudden influx of them in dynasty rankings. Those currently ranked at the top will remain the same, albeit in a slightly different order which includes Hockenson who’s currently our ninth-ranked dynasty tight end. With the return of Amendola above, it’ll cap (at least initially) the opportunity Hockenson could have gotten when it comes to targets. If you’re looking to swoop in, now would be a good time and would cost you a late first-round pick in rookie drafts or veteran receivers along the lines of Brandin Cooks or AJ Green, according to our trade analyzer. If tight end is a weak spot for you while also being in the middle of a re-build, either of those trades could fill that hole on your roster.
Miller Time (?)
Are we sure this Gabriel news is good for Miller?
Miller played 70% of his snaps out of the slot, while Gabriel only had 25% (100 total snaps from slot)
If anything this news almost ensures they add a higher profile receiver who has much better chance at competing for targets
— Tom Burroughs (@FF_TomB) February 22, 2020
Despite the step back quarterback Mitchell Trubisky experienced this last season, neither Allen Robinson or Anthony Miller saw much of a decrease in attention or production. Both Robinson and Miller saw increases in their targets, receptions, and yards-per-game. Miller, especially made gains in nearly every statistic across the board except for one. See if you can notice it.
Statistics from pro-football-reference.com.
The glaring difference in touchdowns can directly be traced to Trubisky who went from 24 passing touchdowns just a year ago down to 17 this past season. It remains to be seen just who the quarterback is in Chicago, for 2020 and beyond, but Miller’s ceiling will only be so high as long as it stays status quo in Chicago.
Dynasty Impact: The tweet above from a fellow DLF colleague is an important point to remember when it comes to evaluating Anthony Miller’s dynasty value. Unlike the Danny Amendola/TJ Hockenson battle for targets mentioned above, Miller and recently released Taylor Gabriel were not operating in the same space. So while the number of targets has, in theory, opened up it may not be as many as the 48 left behind by Gabriel. Miller is currently our 50th-ranked dynasty receiver and, unless there are bigger (i.e. quarterback) changes, it’s hard to see Miller performing much better than that.
RoJo is a Go
I’m fascinated by trio of RoJo Kerryon Johnson and Derrius Guice.
All 3rd year round 2 RBs w/o a hit. The hit rate on the priors with that experience and pedigree? 28%.
Market likes Guice and Johnson more than 28% hit rate but RoJo with best season to date is cheapest.
— Analytics of Dynasty (@McNamaraDynasty) February 23, 2020
It’s been quite the roller coaster for Ronald Jones dynasty owners. Just two seasons ago, he was one of the top players in rookie drafts. He then went on to only appear in half the games during his rookie season while averaging less than two yards per carry. But he made a (relative) comeback in 2019, finishing with 1,000 total yards from scrimmage. No, really! All of this is very confusing though as we don’t exactly know where to place Jones among dynasty running backs. Sure, he finished as a fringe RB2 in fantasy leagues this season and is still our 40th-ranked running back but is all that enough to shake the stink from that atrocious rookie season?
Dynasty Impact: He’ll enter the 2020 season at just 23 years-old and the low-key season Jones just had means he won’t be a popular target for dynasty teams this off-season. He only had one, 100-yard rushing game and scored just six times. But, he was clearly the best running back in Tampa and was able to produce despite the erraticness of Jameis Winston. If you’re a RoJo owner, whether Jameis returns to Tampa or not, he’s a strong hold.
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