20/20: D’Andre Swift

Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we profile 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2020 by giving you 20 facts you must know.

1.) Player Name – D’Andre Swift

2.) College – Georgia

3.) Height/Weight – 5’9″, 215 pounds

4.) Birthdate – 1/14/1999 (21 years old)

5.) Class – Junior

6.) Basic college stats – A quick look at Swift’s statistics shows that he was incredibly efficient on a per-carry basis, but that he was far less productive in total than a lot of other running backs in this class. He immediately made his mark as a receiver in 2017, hinting at the upside he brings to the table as he found his way to touches despite sharing a backfield with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Swift was the most productive of the three as a receiver.

He made major leaps from a production standpoint in his sophomore campaign, and everyone was incredibly excited to see what he would do as the clear lead dog in his backfield. As I’ll get to a little later on, his 2019 season was a bit of a statistical disappointment, but he was still very efficient on an increased workload.

Courtesy of sports-reference.com.

7.) NFL Draft round projection – Late round one to early round two. He has been linked to teams in the back half of the first round – including the Miami Dolphins with their final pick on day one – but I find it hard to believe that he’ll be taken in the first round.

The early second round feels more realistic due to the amount of top-end talent available at the other positions in this draft and the number of impact running backs available this year.

8.) Current NFL comparison – A more athletic Arian Foster.

To be honest, Swift is a very hard player to comp. Back in 2017, I compared Swift to a more athletic version of Arian Foster, and I still think that’s probably the best comparison I can come up with.

Foster was a smooth player who appeared to glide as a runner, offered versatility in terms of how he was used, and was incredibly effective as a pass-catcher. In essence, that’s how I view Swift, minus the significant injury concerns.

There aren’t many players in today’s NFL that have very similar play styles to Swift. Dalvin Cook and Kenyan Drake each share some similarities, but Drake is more athletic and Cook is a more powerful slasher.

9.) Best possible destination – Atlanta Falcons. There are a few intriguing landing spots for running backs this year, but it’s hard to pinpoint a specific team until we see how free agency shakes out. Any team with a good offense and an opening at the position would be beneficial for an incoming rookie’s value.

Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers would be dream scenarios, but I don’t see the need for either team to invest at the position early.

Instead, the Falcons would be the perfect landing spot. There are some similarities to Devonta Freeman in his game, but Swift is a far superior player at this point in their careers. There is very little on Atlanta’s depth chart behind Freeman (who may, and probably should, be a cap casualty), which means Swift could walk into a massive workload on a team that targets the running back heavily.

The Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be intriguing landing spots as well.

10.) Worst possible destination – He is a capable three-down back. Being drafted to any situation with an established NFL starter would be the worst-case scenario, but I anticipate his draft capital being far too high for a team to invest in a backup at a replaceable position.

That said, landing on a team with either an established pass catching back or a proven goal-line back or leading committee back would also be sub-optimal.

Swift is a powerful runner when falling forward, but he has struggled to convert consistently in short-yardage situations. Playing somewhere where he might get pulled on the goal line would be awful for an early first round rookie draft pick. He also provides most value as a receiver, so coming off the field in those instances would be detrimental for his overall value as well.

Pittsburgh stands out as a team I would like to avoid for Swift unless they move on from James Conner entirely, which is unlikely – at least in 2020 – and the Colts and Lions are other choices I would dislike.

11.) Best current skill – Vision/Elusiveness. He isn’t a perfect back, but he does a lot of things well. One of his biggest strengths is his vision. He is very patient behind the line of scrimmage and has tremendous burst to hit the hole hard once he identifies his running lanes.

He has a very natural feel for cutback lanes and has the instincts to wait for things to develop as he’s pressing forward. He is probably best suited for an inside zone scheme, but I don’t think there’s a scheme in which he wouldn’t perform well.

Once he’s in space, he’s very hard to corral. He doesn’t have otherworldly contact balance like other runners in this class, but he’s just hard to get a clean shot at due to his agility and moves in space.

12.) Skill that needs to be improved – Pad level. I’m a big fan of Swift’s game and I don’t think there’s a lot he can improve upon. There are times he runs quite upright, exposing himself to big hits and allowing himself to go down easier than he should. His shoulder injury from this year lingered for a while, and I think it could have been avoided altogether if he ran lower to the ground more consistently.

Besides that, there isn’t much I think he is incapable of doing. Swift occasionally takes too many steps to decelerate before cutting upfield – particularly on outside zone runs – but he also shows the ability to stop and cut on a dime. More rep-to-rep consistency would be ideal.

13.) Past/current rookie ADP – He is the top rookie off the board in February mock drafts. His startup ADP is 27 overall, right between Courtland Sutton and Kenny Golladay. Other players in his range are Josh Jacobs, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Miles Sanders.

Across ten recent 1QB rookie mocks, Swift was selected first in all but one, where he went second. He’s the near unanimous 1.01 right now, though I would expect the stock of other runners to rise post-Combine.

In superflex rookie mocks, Swift is the 1.02 behind Joe Burrow. He was selected first in three of the six mock drafts in that format, and fell as low as fifth in one of them.

14.) Projected dynasty value – He is already being valued as the RB12 in February’s startup ADP, one spot behind Jacobs and one spot ahead of Sanders. While there is a lot of downside with valuing him so highly already, he still has a ton of room for growth.

A rookie’s dynasty value will somewhat hinge on the draft capital spent on him in the real NFL Draft. Swift is not far off from top-ten value already. Depending on landing spot, he could grow into an elite building block as the backs at the top of rankings right now begin to age past their primes. If he receives first round NFL draft capital, he’ll rise significantly.

15.) Metrics – Because Swift shared a backfield with other NFL running backs, I wanted to compare them all using DLF’s new College Market Share App.

Comparing Swift with Chubb, Michel, and Elijah Holyfield, we see that Swift was a significantly more productive receiver than Chubb (and at an earlier age) and was essentially outpacing Michel at a much younger age.

We also see that he was above the baseline regression target mark in market share metrics (rushing yards and receptions) in at least one season. He was not a prolific touchdown scorer in his career, but he did manage to just barely sneak by the baseline regression target mark in his sophomore season.

He broke out in 2018 at the age of 19 (19.6), which is in the 55th percentile. He also posted a final season dominator rating of 20.6 percent, which isn’t very good but isn’t an enormous red flag.

16.) Contextualizing final year production – His lack of workhorse touches throughout his collegiate career has been touted as a major negative, as has his lack of high-end production in comparison to some of his peers. Both of these things are true. However, it’s important to contextualize, and I’m not simply attempting to trivialize his poor production profile.

Georgia, recognizing that Swift was their best running back, rested him later in blowout wins against Murray State (63-17) and Arkansas State (55-0). Then he got hurt later in the season, suffering a shoulder contusion in the game against Georgia Tech. This is why he had just three carries in the final two games of the season.

If you remove the blowout victories against weak competition and the games he played clearly injured or got hurt in, he carried the ball 168 times and caught 18 passes in the remaining nine games. This comes out to an average of 18.7 carries and two receptions per game, or a combined total of 20.7 touches per game. He was utilized far more when healthy than the others on the depth chart.

Yes, I’m aware that this is cherry picking, but I also believe this is important context to note when looking at the timeshare or market share statistics on Swift’s profile.

17.) Dead leg – As mentioned above, his signature move to create space for himself is his dead leg. It is one of the nastiest moves I’ve seen from a running back and it makes it very hard to predict which direction he’ll go with open field in front of him.

D’Andre Swift’s dead leg is so nasty. pic.twitter.com/GGPyBoySqX

— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) May 4, 2019

Swift gathers the ball, begins heading upfield, then uses a sharp head fake and violent juke to change directions and leave defenders grasping at air.

D’Andre Swift with the nasty dead leg before getting in the end zone#SECchampionshippic.twitter.com/9n1cfZuxFe

— Def Pen Sports (@DefPenSports) December 1, 2018

NFL defenders are faster and more instinctive, but Lamar Jackson just showed us what elite agility and elusiveness can do to defensive backs in the open field.

18.) Recruiting profile –  The top-35 recruit coming out of St. Joseph’s Prep in Philadelphia, 247Sports’s composite rank, ranked him the fourth-best running back in the country (behind Najee Harris, Cam Akers, and Stephen Carr), the 33rd overall player in his class, and the best in the state of Pennsylvania.

He received 23 offers, many from top programs in the nation – including Alabama and Clemson – but Georgia was his only visit.

He committed to Georgia well before Chubb and Michel shocked the nation by electing to return for their senior seasons. Swift committed expecting to be the workhorse from day one, but that didn’t happen. Major programs all over the country that hoped to woo him away from Georgia contacted him during this time, but he was undeterred.

19.) Testing – He didn’t run the 40 at The Opening back in 2017, but he performed all the other drills. His shuttle time was good, which highlights his above-average agility, but his 40 will be important for his draft stock.

Swift is not particularly fast. He has tremendous burst and acceleration, but his top speed isn’t much different from what he gets to once he plants his foot in the ground and gets going.

He reportedly has a 4.43 40 to his name, but I’d be shocked if he came in under 4.50. He has similar speed to Michel (4.54) coming out of school – maybe a tick slower – so he’ll check a box for me as long as he’s under 4.60.

20.) SEC All-Freshman team – He spent his freshman season splitting time with Chubb, Michel, Holyfield, and Brian Herrien all in the same backfield, but managed 7.6 yards per carry and 771 total yards. His per-carry average was second on the team behind Michel, and his total yards were third behind the two running backs that left for the NFL that season.

As a true freshman, Michel had more total yards than all four leading receivers for the Bulldogs, all of whom were drafted and three of whom are currently in the NFL – Javon Wims, Mecole Hardman, and Riley Ridley (Terry Godwin is currently a free agent). No, Jake Fromm wasn’t leading a prolific air attack, but it’s notable that a third-string running back made such an impact.