2020 Dynasty Capsule: Washington Redskins

Scott Connor

Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

The term “fantasy wasteland” gets thrown around quite frequently in the dynasty community, pejoratively describing a situation that lacks fantasy production and player value. The current version of the Washington Redskins fits that criteria as closely as any other NFL team in recent memory.

After a 3-13 season and a complete overhaul of the front office and coaching staff, the time has come for the portfolio assets to follow suit. As it stands, Washington sports the least number of players in the latest ADP (7), with two of those being running backs optimistically drafted entirely on the basis of past opportunity.

With Ron Rivera coming over from the Panthers – a franchise with a robust number of dynasty assets over the past few seasons – the hope is that the Redskins see an influx in additional talent and an increase in production ceiling for the few stable assets currently on the roster. Given the number of injury-plagued talents, there’s hope that a new medical staff can help address that reputation as well.

Here is a look at the Redskins as they currently stand.

Quarterback

Dwayne Haskins (ADP: 190.83, QB33)

Age: 22

Heading into the 2019 season, Haskins was not locked into a starting job, generated very little preseason buzz and found himself in a situation that severely lacked playmakers. The stock market on the former Ohio State signal-caller appeared to be a sharp arrow down, and such an early drop elicited worry in the eyes of many dynasty owners.

After a QB34 finish among quarterbacks who played more than half their team’s games in 2019, and ending the year with back-to-back notably solid performances (with three rookie wideouts as primary targets), we started to see his value bounce back.

Checking in at the current QB23 in the latest ADP, the hope remains that the Redskins bring in more pieces for Haskins to work with and that Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner will build an offense to work with the second-year quarterback.

It’s fair to question the fantasy point ceiling with Haskins, but for the short-term his opportunity appears to be safe. With that said, I’d consider selling him in superflex leagues if I can hit the reboot button on a quarterback in the 2020 class and would move him for any first round pick in the class. There are way too many narratives going against Haskins and the situation and surrounding talent still leaves a lot to desire.

If buying Haskins is a move you want to pursue, consider opting for a deal to move a slightly higher-valued QB and acquire Haskins plus another piece. Ultimately, until he finds himself in a high-volume situation, I don’t expect more than a mid-QB2 ceiling on a yearly basis.

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Case Keenum (ADP: 222.75, QB44)

Age: 32

Keenum saw action in ten games during the 2019 season, ceding the job to Haskins midway through. He posted QB31 numbers and cracked through as a QB2 only three times.

The hope of a future starting job is over, but dynasty owners should continue to roster Keenum through the off-season to find out where he lands. Given that more than 53 quarterbacks on average have started at least one game over the past five years, there’s a great chance for Keenum to have some starting viability in the NFL in the right situation. If it’s one more productive for fantasy, he deserves a roster spot.

Running Back

Derrius Guice (ADP: 57.00, RB23)

Age: 22

Guice enters his third season with more questions than answers. The 49 total touches he’s handled leaves dynasty owners wondering just how much they can rely on the former LSU star. Once an uber-elite recruit, expectations have not been met and the new staff has no attachment to Guice. They will need to be convinced he can handle the workload.

If he can hold up to the challenge, owners can be encouraged by Rivera’s former stud back Christian McCaffrey’s 746 touches over the past two seasons and, more importantly, 265 targets in the passing game.

The price on Guice is very reasonable at the RB23. A buy window is wide open after numerous running backs passed on the 2020 Draft and returned to college.

There is a very clear tier drop after the 1.10 rookie pick in a superflex league and the 1.07 in a single quarterback league. If Guice is on your shopping list, a swap in this range is very reasonable.

Like fellow member of the 2018 class Kerryon Johnson, the upcoming year will be career-defining and will provide dynasty owners with clarity on what they really have going forward.

Unless you want out of the Guice business entirely, look to trade him for any pick within striking distance of grabbing one of the top five running backs in the upcoming class. Otherwise, hold for one more year.

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Bryce Love (ADP: 187.83, RB59)

Age: 22

Two years ago dynasty owners were buzzing at the news that Love, coming off a season of more than 2,100 yards and nineteen touchdowns in his Junior season at Stanford, was returning to school. Very little has gone right since then for the 2018 Heisman finalist. He enters next season still recovering from a torn ACL and with a lot to prove to a new coaching staff that didn’t draft him.

The same usage narrative on Guice can be applied to Love as his monster 2017 at Stanford followed in the footsteps of McCaffrey. Can he do the same for Ron Rivera in Washington?

There are major question marks for Love in the receiving game, but with Chris Thompson on his way out of town, dynasty owners can do much worse than the RB59 price currently reflected on Love. He profiles very similar to many of the day three backs in the 2020 class and I wouldn’t move more than a fourth-round pick for him.

If he’s on your shopping list, consider including him in a larger trade and building a stable of running backs in this tier who are slated to get some opportunity yet have very low expectations.

Chris Thompson (ADP: 235.83, RB81)

Age: 29

Once a valuable satellite running back who could be used as a flex option, Thompson is an unrestricted free agent and will likely be looking for a roster spot in 2020.

He hasn’t played more than eleven games since 2016. A fibula fracture zapped the upside we saw during his 15.1 point-per-game campaign in 2017. Although his ADP (RB81) reflects a player right on the cut line in most leagues, running backs are scarce and Thompson could still provide pass-catching value in a dire situation. Collect shares where you can, but age 29 backs with only one skill aren’t ever going to provide value on the trade market.

Adrian Peterson (ADP: 220.33, RB69)

Age: 34

He is returning to Washington for his 14th year on the heels of back-to-back seasons with more than 200 touches. At this point in his career, the option of using him during any given week where his usage can be predicted far outweighs any trade value on the open market.

With major questions surrounding Guice’s (and Love’s) durability, you could do much worse on a zero-running back build. He offers a prime buy target in point-per-carry leagues.

Targeting Peterson in a trade will likely tip the other owner off and raise the purchase price, but adding him into a deal before free agency and the NFL Draft could be a move that pays off from a points perspective next season. It looks like we will be able to watch the legend unfold for one more season.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin (ADP: 54.33, WR28)

Age: 24

McLaurin exceeded nearly all expectations in his rookie year, converting 93 targets into a WR28 finish. He checks into the same spot in the current ADP, and although that slot includes a very large tier of other receivers it’s very possible that the market on McLaurin in any given league is even higher.

The former Ohio State product does illicit some concerns and it starts with his age as he turns 25 years old this September. There is also significant concern with the future at quarterback and whether his college teammate is the answer. The 203 pass attempts in nine games for Haskins would project to be one of the lowest-volume attacks in the NFL. With the current McLaurin buzz, it’s fair to wonder what his true value ceiling might be.

The bold move is to sell, perhaps to acquire a depressed asset like Brandin Cooks in a package, hedging your bets that the tax you receive is insurance against giving up the more-productive receiver. I can’t support buying at anything close to the current market price when you combine his age, current situation and large tier of similar players who are cost less and are easier to acquire.

Kelvin Harmon (ADP: 152.33, WR65)

Age: 23

Dynasty owners are wondering what to make of Harmon’s current situation. After a semi-successful rookie season, an argument can be made on both sides.

In the positive direction, he was second to McLaurin with 482 offensive snaps and has seemingly overcome his sixth-round draft capital to earn early opportunity. The situation remains a negative, however. Despite the hefty snap share, Steven Sims‘ 56 targets were twelve more than Harmon. The new coaching regime moved away from bigger outside receivers in Carolina. If the same approach takes place in DC, an incoming rookie may push Harmon for playing time next season.

At WR65 in the current ADP, Harmon is an easy sell for any second-round rookie pick. If that doesn’t work, consider moving him for a running back or veteran receiver with a higher likelihood of short-term production. This will be a huge year for Harmon and we should get a very quick read on whether he has lasting power in dynasty or not.

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Steven Sims (ADP: N/A)

Age: 22

It is absolutely shocking that Steven Sims has not cracked the current WR ADP. That will more than likely change as we get further into the off-season.

The undrafted free agent rookie from Kansas was targeted 56 times, caught 34 passes and posted one top-12, one top-24 and a top-36 week during 2019. He blew past expectations for an undrafted rookie, overtaking Trey Quinn as the primary slot receiver in the second half of the year.

The new regime will have to evaluate Sims to determine if he’s locked into the slot role, but assuming it happens the time to buy him is now – before the narrative begins. Consider offering a fourth round rookie pick in a league where you can start more than four receivers and hope the investment grows before the points-scoring season begins. I will likely re-assess to sell after that happens.

Trey Quinn (ADP: N/A)

Age: 24

The experiment appears to be over. The long-time favorite of Jay Gruden was the WR79 just one year ago. He’s now a long shot to make the 2020 roster.

With Gruden out of town and the emergence of Sims, the oft-injured Quinn may need a new landing spot to get back on the field. He still intrigues me in very deep roster leagues, but I’m likely to wait for his move to another destination before I’m interested. If he’s on waivers, you could do much worse, but the market value is below zero.

Paul Richardson (ADP: N/A)

Age: 27

Eds. note: He is a free agent as of February 14th.

There are still dynasty owners waiting on him and it’s time to give up the hope. After another disappointing campaign that saw him miss six games and get passed by Sims and Harmon, the end in DC is here for Richardson, who will have a major uphill climb to a relevant role with any other team. You will likely see him lingering on many waiver-wires this summer and I’m not interested until an NFL team shows some form of interest.

Cam Sims (ADP: N/A)

Age: 24

Sims is a former high-pedigree recruit that was never able to contribute as a receiver in four years at Alabama. This has given him a smidge of buzz in dynasty, but there’s no justification or it. After three targets in seven career NFL games, don’t waste a roster spot on a third-year player who has never commanded a regular role.

Tight End

Jordan Reed (ADP: N/A)

Age: 29

Eds. note: the team released him February 21st.

Most dynasty owners have given up on Reed at this point. Speculation has run rampant all year that he might consider retirement. Twelve documented concussions since 2010 have left Reed 50/50 to ever set foot on an NFL field again and as a result, he’s floating around on many waiver wires.

With only 19 games played since 2016 and no current ADP, the only move with Reed is to add him for free with hopes that he plays again. The leash is short, and the end might be close. Wait for a change in information and then make a final decision on his status. If there is ever a sell window, cash out immediately.

Jeremy Sprinkle (ADP: N/A)

Age: 25

The former fifth-round pick in 2017 showed flashes enough in 2019 to keep him on the radar in deeper tight end premium and 2TE leagues. A new regime with a history of tight end usage, combined with the fact that Sprinkle ranked 27th in the league in percentage of routes run, keeps me holding the former Arkansas Razorback for one more season to see what happens.

The upside is likely very limited and if there’s any sell window, like Reed, cash in. Otherwise, I’m curiously intrigued about what the future brings for him.

Caleb Wilson (ADP: N/A)

Age: 23

Color me shocked when the Cardinals drafted Wilson in the seventh round in 2019 and subsequently cut him (and every other tight end) before the preseason. The impressive college production, athleticism and comparable players makes Wilson a slightly higher priority stash than Sprinkle. If you have the roster space add both and see what happens.

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Hale Hentges (ADP: N/A)

Age: 23

Hentges is a former defensive end turned tight end that logged action in eleven games as a rookie, primarily as a blocker. He garnered only four targets in those contests despite playing almost 25 percent of the snaps. He is likely on some deep rosters, but isn’t relevant for fantasy until we see something more.

scott connor